(Political Ramblings from a Little Left of Center)
I’ve been asked where I’m contributing money as we enter the final stages of the 2026 mid-terms. My current round of campaign contributions will be my last for this election cycle and it’s still a work-in-progress. As the campaigns begin their final sprints, I will complete this set well before the end of September (the…
Two months until Election Day! Below are quick updates regarding the federal elections that I’ve previously examined. U.S. Senate Races Here’s my current summary of 12 competitive Senate races, in decreasing order of a Democratic win probability:And a few notes: I see no reason yet to reorder or reclassify the first seven races on my…
Forecasting the weather for November 3 might be easier than forecasting the U.S. House races being held that day. However, since people keep asking me whether Democrats will take control of the House in the upcoming election, I’ll weigh in. Disclaimers & Caveats Nothing is certain. The election is almost three months away and things…
Coverage of the 2026 mid-terms has been focused on whether Democrats can flip control of the US House and/or the US Senate for the next two years. This blog shares the media’s prioritization of the 35 Senate seats and 435 House seats that are up for election this year. However, in the same November election,…
With an obvious disclaimer of “it’s early and things will change”, I won’t bury the lede: Yes, Democrats could win the Senate in 2026, but they will need some significant luck to do it. Here’s a map of the 13 Senate seats that I consider to be even remotely in-play in 2026. The grey states…
In my previous post, I claimed that it was too early to do much analysis regarding the 2026 election. I lied. Well, kinda. The primaries in Texas are just over and, while considerable dust still needs to settle, I think I have enough data to offer early thoughts on some of my own state’s races.…
I’ve been surprised by the number of people who have asked me to weigh in on the 2026 election season. Summarizing and paraphrasing, folks seem to be asking two basic questions: Do Democrats have a chance in Hell of winning, well, anything? What can a normal person do that might move the ball in the…
Texas currently has 38 seats in the U.S. House with 25 held by Republicans, 12 by Democrats, and one vacant seat. (A replacement election for the heavily Democratic vacant seat has been slow-rolled by the Republican Governor.) Even if we assign the vacant seat to Democrats, Republicans still hold 66% of the U.S. House seats…