Contributions 2026

I’ve been asked where I’m contributing money as we enter the final stages of the 2026 mid-terms.

My current round of campaign contributions will be my last for this election cycle and it’s still a work-in-progress. As the campaigns begin their final sprints, I will complete this set well before the end of September (the next FEC reporting deadline).  In any case, I’m happy to share my thoughts – for whatever they may be worth.  My targets are bulleted below.

I’m obviously basing my decisions on my prior analyses and following my own posted advice.  Since I don’t have unlimited funds, I’m funneling my additional contributions into races where (a) the Democrat has a decent chance of winning, (b) the campaign could use the money, and (c) I like the candidate.

U.S. Senate Races

Looking at my prior assessment of 12 competitive Senate seats:  I think the MN race is well in-hand and doesn’t really need my money.  I wish MI Democrats well, but they will need to win without my monetary assistance.  I like the non-Republicans running in IA, NE, & KS, but I’m not quite convinced that those races are the best use of my limited funds – but I’m still thinking about it.

I’m thus initially contributing to 7 Senate campaigns.  If Democrats win all 7, they will have a 51-seat majority.

U.S. House Races

Rather than contributing individually to all 36 races from my prior House assessment, I decided to use an aggregator.

Swing Left’s U.S. House strategy is excellent.  They believe there are more competitive seats than I do, but we agree on the vast majority of races.  Unfortunately, the associated fund only supports flipping U.S. House seats that are currently held by Republicans.  I find that odd, since holding current seats is just as important as winning new seats.  That said, the Swing Left fund is good for what it is and I like that it’s simply an ActBlue fundraiser site. (Such sites are direct pass-throughs to individual campaigns. A single donation to the fundraiser is just a shortcut means to contribute to multiple campaigns.)  I’m donating here just to avoid making a ton of separate donations.

Separately, my analysis identified 13 competitive House seats currently held by Democrats that are not covered by the Swing Left fund above.  Since 6 already lean toward a Democratic incumbent, I’m holding off on those for now.  I’m initially targeting 4 of the remaining Democratic-held seats that only became competitive after Republican gerrymanders. (I may expand on these targets later.)

I live in Texas and still consider the 2025 Texas gerrymander to be an insult to democracy.  Both of these Democrats have decent chances of winning despite Republican cartographic efforts.

The GOP gerrymandered this Ohio district to unseat the longest serving woman in the history of Congress.  They then nominated a domestic abuser to run against her and are now making excuses for his behavior.

The North Carolina GOP gerrymandered a district specifically to unseat a black Democrat – who is also a retired Air Force officer and lay minister with a PhD in Education.

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Yes, the above is a lot.  But if we can win “something” in November to combat the insanity of our current federal government, it will be well worth the money.

 

Elections 2026, Take 2

Two months until Election Day!

Below are quick updates regarding the federal elections that I’ve previously examined.


U.S. Senate Races

Here’s my current summary of 12 competitive Senate races, in decreasing order of a Democratic win probability:And a few notes:

  • I see no reason yet to reorder or reclassify the first seven races on my previous list.  The selection of Flanagan in MN is solid.  The replacement of Platner by Jackson didn’t move the needle in ME … but it at least stopped a (D) slide.
  • I moved TX up to the #8 spot and reclassified it from Lean R to Toss Up.  Talerico is doing well.  But WTF is up with Jasmine Crockett?  She lost the Democratic primary to Talarico and is now making rounds of interview claiming that Talarico “isn’t doing enough” to energize Black voters.  Seems she could be helping out rather than spreading her petty sour grapes across the state.  I thought Crockett had a bright future in Democratic politics.  Now, at least in my book, she’s yesterday’s toast.
  • In MI, El-Sayed was simply not the best (D) choice to win the general election.  <sigh>  This race dropped a couple of spots, but it remains a Toss Up. Barely.
  • I left IA & NE in the Lean R category but both races continue to show promise in red states.
  • KS is a new Likely R entry.  A Hamilton win is a reach, but the fact that he’s doing as well as he is IN KANSAS makes the race worth watching.
  • FL & MT fell off my list completely.  FL Democrats nominated someone who will lose badly in November.  MT has two non-R candidates who will split that vote and hand the seat to the Republican.  I kinda thought the goal was to win, but I hope Democrats in these states enjoy their “moral” victories.
  • Democrats still need to net four additional seats to squeak out a Senate majority.  That’s 8 of the 12 races above.

U.S. House Races

Here’s my current summary of 36 competitive House races, colored by the party now holding the seat:

And a couple of notes:

  • I’d intuitively expected movement in the House races, but my new analysis simply made one addition to my previous list.  While I’m seeing several races that have tilted toward the Democrat, none have moved enough to justify changing their classifications at this point.
  • The lone addition?  OH-09 moved from a Safe R seat to a Toss Up.  Max Miller (R) refused Republican calls to drop out of the primary due to extremely damning domestic abuse allegations.  He managed to win his primary but is quite vulnerable in the general election – even in this very red district.  Better still, senior Republicans are now having to voice their support for him.  Several Democratic campaign ads should now write themselves.
  • Democrats still need to win 20 of the 36 races above to reach the 218 necessary to barely gain control of the House.

 

Military Matters

I have been quite comfortable functioning within the confines of my research bubble while examining Democratic chances in the upcoming elections.  I will again retreat to the sanity of analytics in due course.  However, as a side project, I started to update my ever-growing list of grievances with the current administration.

My original list from only nine months ago is now almost quaint and the massive additions were seriously depressing me.  I thus sought to narrow my list to include only those issues of utmost importance – the ones inflicting the most damage to our democracy and the ones that will be the most difficult to remedy.  My list is now a bit smaller, but still daunting.  I’ll perhaps dive into each issue at some point.

However, it is clear that the single most pressing issue I have with this administration was encapsulated by the first bullet of my original grievance list:

  • the treatment of our military as Trump’s personal toys

I’ve previously noted on this blog that my father was a decorated, career Army officer.  I grew up on Army bases, fully engulfed within the military community and culture.  Since I take support for our troops personally, a dedicated blog post seems appropriate – even if only for my own satisfaction.

In short, I find the Trump administration’s misuse of the United States military to be inexcusable, dangerous, ignorant, disrespectful, and treasonous.  I’ll add a final adjective later, but I’ll first examine just a few aspects of the quagmire into which Trump is dragging our military.


Iran War Failure

The Iran War has been an unmitigated disaster.  Trump unilaterally began the war six months ago.  While he didn’t even inform our NATO allies prior to the attack, he later threatened to pull the U.S. out of NATO when they didn’t come rushing to his aid.  Trump declared victory on day four and has repeated that spurious claim almost daily. The war not only continues but has escalated into a regional conflict, shipping remains disrupted in the Strait of Hormuz (through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes), and Iran still has its uranium.  The region is indisputably less stable than it was before the war started.  Chaos reigns.

At least 18 U.S. military lives have been lost and over 750 U.S. military personnel have been wounded.  Thousands of Iranian civilians have been killed, including dozens of children in an airstrike on a girl’s school.  Beyond the cost in human lives, the DoD itself puts the cost of the war at $37.5 billion thus far.  Independent estimates, which include a broader range of indirect costs, put the cost at over $100 billion.

History will record the total absence of competent political leadership regarding this military debacle.


Neglect of Military Readiness

While they have little to show for it in Iran, Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have been chewing through America’s arsenal without any concern for continued military readiness both there and elsewhere in the world.  Our military’s munitions stores are severely depleted, particularly with respect to long-range guided missiles, air-defense interceptors, and drones.  A shortage of Patriot missiles is perhaps the most concerning, as they are our defense against Russia’s high-speed ballistic missiles.

Even if replacements for the diminished stockpiles were ordered today, a military think-tank has estimated that it could take well over a decade to the fulfill the requests.

Furthermore, Trump’s constant deployments of America’s military to stroke his ego are unacceptable. Military personnel aren’t his personal pawns.  They require proper training; they deserve time with their families; they need to be ready if there’s a REAL need.

There are basic concepts of warfare that the idiots in this administration simply don’t comprehend.


Misuse of the Military

The Posse Comitatus Act prohibits the use of federal troops inside the U.S. to conduct law enforcement.  In theory, only an act of Congress can allow an exception.

Nevertheless, Trump is still unilaterally claiming that there is a “crime emergency” in Washington, D.C., necessitating a major National Guard deployment in the city.  That’s just crap.  D.C. crime rates had been falling for two years before Trump took office and were already at their lowest point in decades.  The Guard’s presence has had no impact on crime rates and has only served to make our nation’s capital look like an occupied territory.

While initial National Guard deployments in other major U.S. cities (all with Democratic leadership) have been scaled back due to legal challenges, the administration has pointedly maintained the right to redeploy troops whenever and wherever they wish, purely at Trump’s whim, even over the objections of state and city governments.  I fully expect this administration to try again to use the military to advance its political agenda in Democratic-run states.

For the moment, though, Trump does seem to have shifted toward the use of ICE instead of the military as his administration’s muscle on U.S. soil.  While that’s not much better – and is likely just a temporary change of tactics – career military personnel are undoubtedly thrilled to avoid civil deployments for as long as they possibly can.

[Of course, Trump’s use of untrained, undisciplined, and unaccountable ICE agents as his personal para-military force is still despicable at best.  In this regard, ICE seems eerily reminiscent of Hitler’s Schutzstaffel (SS) – the Nazi para-military group.  The SS was separate from the German military and was held in very low regard by career German military officers.  As a side note, I do feel compelled to point out that even the SS didn’t wear masks.]


Interference in Military Decisions

The U.S. military does, of course, report to civilian authorities.  The military accepts the fact that changes in political leadership will impact the military’s goals.  This includes modified budget priorities and modified force deployments to reflect the policies of whatever party is in power.  The cultural acceptance of such regularly shifting goals within an apolitical military is quite impressive.

On the other hand, it has always been accepted by everyone that career military personnel should be responsible for the implementation of said policies.  While give-and-take is to be expected between political and military leadership, it is a hallmark of our democracy that both sets of leaders have largely kept in their lanes under all administrations of both parties.

But not in THIS administration.

To an extent not seen in my lifetime, Trump and his political appointees have been making military implementation decisions way beyond their levels of expertise.  This sub-topic deserves much more attention, but here’s a quick sample of items gleaned from Trump’s $1.5 trillion defense budget request for FY2027:

  • Trump wants to build a new $275 billion fleet of 15 “Trump-class” battleships and the first one is included in this budget.  This is no more than an incredibly expensive vanity project that would attempt to revive a type of warship that the Navy abandoned decades ago.  The operational concept that might have once justified battleships is woefully outdated.  Although aircraft carriers and long-range missiles are much more effective for naval warfare, battleships do look cool and Trump really wants his name on a class of them.
  • Trump has demanded arbitrary, impractical, and expensive alterations to the Ford-class aircraft carrier.  First, he wants to revert to steam-powered catapults to launch aircraft, scrapping the newer, much more efficient electromagnetic catapults preferred by the Navy.  Could no one explain to him how magnets work?  Second, he wants to reposition the command towers from the rear of the vessel to the middle.  Despite the fact that such a change would be quite costly, would reduce the carrier’s landing area, and would negatively impact the ship’s buoyancy, Trump prefers the look of WWII aircraft carriers.  Seriously.  That’s his actual reason.
  • Over the objections of military leadership, Hegseth decided to shelve the U.S. Army’s drone technology unit as part of his “back-to-basics” approach to warfare.  Cost-effective drones have more than proven their worth in both Ukraine and the Middle East while minimizing battlefield exposure for troops. Nevertheless, our Defense Secretary would apparently prefer his Army to carry spears on horseback.  And, by the way, the general who created the drone unit?  He was ousted back in April.

Politicization of the Military

The U.S. military is proudly apolitical.  While I suspect that my father rarely, if ever, voted for a Democrat, he bristled at any attempt by either political party to involve the military in anything that even looked political.  He had opinions and voted like any U.S. citizen, but his politics didn’t impact his duty.  The same would be true of the vast majority of career military personnel.  It’s part of the training; it’s part of the culture.  They swear an oath to the Constitution, not to a party, and certainly not to an individual.

Unfortunately, this administration doesn’t understand any of that and has gone out of its way to politicize our armed forces.

While it is an administration’s prerogative to elevate their own choices to lead the services, Trump and Hegseth continue to conduct an unprecedented overhaul of high-level military leadership, having already dismissed dozens of generals and flag officers.  The stated claim that these officers don’t align with the administration’s “vision” is an obvious attempt to rid the military of anyone they even suspect of being a Democrat, anyone who might dare to voice their own opinions, and anyone not explicitly loyal to Donald Trump himself.

Flushing that volume of senior military experience and expertise is insane.  Considering a military officer’s perceived politics is insulting.  Demanding personal loyalty is treasonous.

Hegseth’s unprecedented, short-notice summoning of roughly 800 of our military’s top generals and admirals from around the world was truly offensive.  The “meeting” was just a self-aggrandizing political photo-op where a pompous Hegseth lectured our country’s highest ranking military officers about fitness, grooming, and culture.  I suspect a giant thought bubble with a lone middle finger hovered over the auditorium.

The politicization further extends to the DoD’s interactions with Congress and its constitutional role regarding the military.  Only Congress can declare war but, of course, no one seems to care that we’re in an ongoing undeclared war.  Congress also has the power of the purse and is responsible for oversight of the Department of Defense.  As such, Congress must be kept fully informed with regards to military matters.  That’s what the Constitution requires.  Hegseth, however, has decided that he only needs to keep Republicans informed and has completely shut Democrats out of classified military briefings.  Even Republicans have urged Hegseth to reconsider this unprecedented, puerile move.

The press is also not immune to the extraordinary DoD politicization.  After courts struck down Hegseth’s demand for the press at the Pentagon to get DoD approval for their stories, Hegseth simply shut down the Correspondents’ Corridor inside the Pentagon – effectively ending physical access for reporters who have covered the military headquarters for decades.  So much for transparency.

The administration also recently fired the publisher and editor-in-chief of the Stars and Stripes – a military-focused newspaper with a 160-year history of independence – for publishing stories that Trump and Hegseth deemed to be negative.  Military personnel around the world rely on the Stars and Stripes to provide information relevant to their missions.  It has always been a dedicated cheerleader for the military but it is not the DoD’s PR agency.  So much for free speech.


Disrespect for Military Personnel

Beyond the politicization and cultural interference, this administration has further proven they have little respect for military personnel.  Among the numerous examples:

  • Sailors aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln endured a record-setting 250 uninterrupted days at sea in support of Trump’s Iran War.  They did so without adequate supplies of food and hygiene products and with deteriorating ship conditions, including plumbing problems.  Apparently, no one cared about the sailors’ health and well-being until family members of the crew went public.  When asked whether the aircraft carrier’s deployment had gone on too long, Trump replied, “No, not nearly enough.”
  • Despite having a valid work permit, a man in Florida was arrested by ICE agents while his son was serving aboard the USS Lincoln.
  • The USS Benfold spent four days adrift in the heat of the South China Sea, without power, working toilets, galley services, or air conditioning.  While such engineering issues happen, it is inexcusable that it took four days before the Navy towed the guided-missile destroyer and its crew to the Philippines.
  • The Navy is seriously considering renaming an aircraft carrier currently under construction.  It was set to be named the USS Doris Miller, honoring a Black sailor hailed for his heroic actions during the attack on Pearl Harbor.  The new name being considered?  The USS Donald Trump.
  • Hegseth declared that troops older than 30 will be provided with testosterone to create “The High-T Department of War.”  Although this certainly looks like an SNL skit, it is sadly real.  Hegseth is apparently trying to convince himself that everyone has his deficiencies.
  • Hegseth personally removed dozens of officers from promotion lists across the armed services, most of whom were women and/or non-white.  In addition to being racist and sexist, such interventions break a long-standing tradition of military promotion boards being independent of political appointees.

Sen. Mark Kelly

This is a very specific – and very irritating – example of the general disrespect noted above.

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) is a retired Navy Captain who has flown numerous combat missions, has been awarded numerous service medals, and became a NASA astronaut.  Despite his stellar military service, the administration has claimed that Kelly violated the terms of the Uniform Code of Military Justice (UCMJ), based on a video in which Kelly and others reminded service members being deployed into U.S. cities that they are not required to obey illegal orders.

The military operates under a very strict set of rules.  The chain of command is taken very seriously and service members are absolutely required to obey all lawful orders.  However, service members also have a duty to refuse a manifestly illegal order.  In fact, obeying an illegal order can expose a service member to criminal liability where the Nuremberg defense of “I was just following orders” is unacceptable.  Orders to target civilians, abuse detainees, falsify official documents, and commit crimes are obviously illegal and should never be followed by any service member.  The duty to disobey would also apply to orders that would interfere with an American citizen’s constitutional rights, including free speech, peaceful assembly, due process, and freedom of the press.  As noted above, the military is not a civilian police force.

Which brings me back to Sen. Kelly.

Since Kelly is retired from the military, his free-speech rights as a civilian aren’t at all restricted.  As a US Senator, Kelly’s right to provide political commentary is further protected under the Constitutional separation of powers.  Most importantly, though, it is categorically never illegal to tell someone not to do something illegal!  That painfully obvious statement includes reminding military personnel of their duty to disobey illegal orders.

Nevertheless, Hegseth alleged Kelly’s speech was seditious, issued a formal censure, and initiated proceedings to lower Kelly’s retired Naval rank and pension.  Kelly sued in federal court and U.S. District Judge Richard Leon (a Republican appointee) issued a scathing injunction chastising the Trump administration and blocking any punishment.  The administration appealed to US Court of Appeals (DC).  Oral arguments were completed back in May but a judgment is still pending.  Why?  I have no clue.  Attempting to use the UCMJ for a petty political attack on a decorated military veteran is disgusting.


Disrespect for Military Allies

Almost as troublesome as Trump’s disrespect for our military personnel is his disrespect for our allies.  Trump continues to rant about pulling the U.S. out of NATO and annexing Greenland while directly and personally insulting many leaders of NATO countries.  He substantially scaled back long-planned joint military exercises with South Korea.  He openly mocks leaders of our closest neighbors, Canada and Mexico.

Trump fully expects the leaders of democratic countries to bow before him and, when they don’t, he responds like a petulant child.  Countries that have been steadfast allies for decades no longer feel that they can count on America in a crisis.  Unfortunately, they’re probably right.

Meanwhile, Trump lavishes praise on dictators that he deems to be “strong” – including Kim Jong Un, Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping.  These are his friends.  Great.

Our allies deserve to be treated with respect.  Unfortunately, we might not have any allies left by the time this nightmare of an administration is through.


My final adjective describing the Trump administration’s misuse of the United States military?

Impeachable.

If Democrats retake the House, I’d hope they first try to shed light on all of the above through oversight hearings and budget negotiations.  If (when) that doesn’t work, Democrats can and should impeach Trump for his misuse of the military.  No President of either party has ever shown such utter disdain for our armed forces.  While there’s little chance that the Senate would actually remove him from office, a trial could at least begin to explain to the American people that Trump’s actions as Commander in Chief are not normal and cannot be tolerated.

Until then, the best we can do is try to win elections in November.

I guess I’ll get back to my election analytics now.

House 2026, Take 1

Forecasting the weather for November 3 might be easier than forecasting the U.S. House races being held that day. However, since people keep asking me whether Democrats will take control of the House in the upcoming election, I’ll weigh in.

Disclaimers & Caveats

Nothing is certain.

The election is almost three months away and things will change. Numerous districts have been redrawn. A few primaries have yet to be held. Our economy remains in flux. Wars are still being fought. New candidate scandals are surfacing daily. My model is a work-in-progress. My data is incomplete. Etc.

Approach

My rough predictive model includes weighted professional analyst opinions (Cook, Sabato, etc.), the district’s partisan voting index (reflecting historical voting trends), DNC & RNC targeting data, cash-on-hand for each district campaign (based on FEC filings), the incumbent’s years in office, etc. I gave very minimal weight to the prediction markets since I don’t fully trust that data this far away from the election.  I considered candidate-specific factors on the assumption that qualifications might actually still matter.  I also took into account the top-of-ticket contests in the states where the races will be held.  Hey, if I was being paid to do this, my model would be better.

In an attempt to simplify my own analysis this year, I took a first pass to eliminate not only those seats that are safely Democratic or Republican but also those seats that I deemed “likely” to fall one way or the other.  Upsets in those races are possible, but they are not currently probable.

I thus narrowed my focus to include only true toss-up races and races that are competitive despite leaning toward a particular party.  Of the 435 House seats up for election in 2026, my current subset contains only 35 seats.  202 seats seem predestined to be won by Republicans while Democrats can count on 198 seats.  Sadly, then, House control in 2026 will be decided by only 8% of the districts in the country in only 18 states.

Analysis

From a Democratic perspective on the 35 seats in-play:

  • Of the 8 Lean D races, 6 are defending current D incumbents and 2 are in open races for current R seats. Democrats need to win all of these.
  • Of the 20 Toss-Up races:
    • 5 are defending current D incumbents.  Democrats need to win all of these.
    • 3 are in open races for current R seats.  Democrats need to win all of these.
    • 12 are trying to beat current R incumbents.  Democrats need to win at least 4 of these to eke out a House majority.  Of course, they need to win more to make up for any losses above and, hopefully, to pad their majority beyond a single vote.
  • Of the 7 Lean R races, 5 are trying to beat current R incumbents and 2 are in open races for current D seats. I’d consider these to be extra-credit races to make up for any surprises above.

Bottom Line

Democrats need to win AT LEAST 20 of the 35 races above to reach the 218 necessary to control the House.  A 57% win-rate is doable, but that’s not a cakewalk.  Numerous pundits claim Democratic control of the House is a near certainty.  Prediction markets put the odds in the mid-80s.  I have no idea why.

Why Democrats Might Not Win the House

  • Democrats lost the redistricting battle.  Badly.  My rough estimate is that the GOP will net 10 seats they would not have won under the old maps.
  • Democrats remain focused on their significant lead in national polls.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t matter what a majority of voters may want.  The House is a collection of district races and the ultra-gerrymandered districts in many states don’t nearly reflect the population.
  • Democratic infighting is problematic.  Wounds from some very rough primary battles between the party’s progressive wing and the establishment wing will be tough to heal before November.  In swing districts, neither wing can win the general election on their own.
  • The DNC and the DCCC are borderline incompetent and are way behind their Republican counterparts in fundraising.  The GOP’s massive money advantage was given even more leverage by the recent (partisan) Supreme Court ruling that invalidated long-held Congressionally-mandated limits on how much political parties can spend in coordination with candidates.
  • There will be federal interference in the 2026 elections. Count on it. From National Guard troops being deployed to polling places, to ballot seizures in swing districts, to “observers” obstructing ballot processing, to court filings in GOP-controlled courts to delay vote counts and/or invalidate ballots, to efforts (administrative, legislative, and/or judicial) to decertify any Democratic wins.  The only open question is the impact that interference will have, particularly in Republican-controlled states.

Why Democrats Might Win the House

  • Historically, mid-term elections punish the party that holds the White House.  At the moment, Trump’s unpopularity is a major advantage for Democrats everywhere.
  • Most Republican candidates have been forced to declare unquestioned loyalty to Trump.  Not to the nation.  Not to their state.  Not to the presidency.  To Trump personally.  That kind of submissive prostration will not go over well with the independent voters necessary to win swing districts.
  • Republicans could have nominated moderate conservatives against some of the far-left Democrats running in swing districts.  Instead, the GOP chose far-right candidates, many of whom are 2020 election-deniers and conspiracy theorists (read: idiots).
  • The Republican party may have more money, but they are even more dysfunctional than the Democrats.  Trump’s personal control over party expenditures will be a nightmare for the GOP’s professional campaign staffs.

Help?

Democratic candidates rely heavily on small dollar donors.  To help Democrats win control of the House, the best option is to directly contribute to the individual campaigns of the Democrats running in the races above. As I’ve noted before, ActBlue works great.

Unfortunately, I’d avoid donating to the DNC and the DCCC as I have very little confidence that they know where to best direct the money.  A better option for making a one-shot donation might be Swing Left.  While I’ve had some concerns about their salary overhead in the past, I’ve come to believe that their impressive groundwork justifies the expense.

Specifically, Swing Left’s Flip the House fund is quite interesting this year.  After completing my preliminary analysis above, I ran across their evaluation of the 2026 landscape. Swing Left also identified a number of House races to target this cycle – which exactly matches the Republican-held seats within my Lean D and Toss-Up categories.  Great minds, I guess.  And this particular fund mostly just passes along contributions to the individual campaigns.  I wish they’d consider adding some defensive positions to help protect vulnerable Democratic incumbents, but what they have is better than I’ve seen elsewhere. (You might consider other Swing Left funds as well.)

Next?

At the moment, Democratic control of the House isn’t the slam dunk everyone seems to think it is.  It’s going to take some work.

I’ll revisit both the House and Senate pictures as we get closer to Election Day.  I’m hoping for brighter pictures.

 

State Elections 2026

Coverage of the 2026 mid-terms has been focused on whether Democrats can flip control of the US House and/or the US Senate for the next two years.  This blog shares the media’s prioritization of the 35 Senate seats and 435 House seats that are up for election this year.

However, in the same November election, Americans will elect 36 Governors, 26 Secretaries of State, 30 State Attorneys General, 63 State Supreme Court justices, around 5,800 state legislators, and massive numbers of municipal, county, and other local officials.  That’s a whole lot of government potentially being reset in what is generally considered an “off-year” election that does not include a Presidential vote.

While I follow numerous races in my home state of Texas, my sanity requires that I pay attention to only a small subset of contests in other states that could possibly have national implications.

In today’s hyper-partisan political environment, fair elections are sadly not a given. While specific power dynamics vary from state-to-state, some combination of the Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, and state legislatures are responsible for running elections, certifying elections, and defending elections from outside (read: federal) interference.  State officials are also responsible for filling Senate & House seats that become vacant – either by appointment or by calling (or delaying) special elections.  While I have no issue with numerous Republicans who can and do run fair elections in their states, the GOP has nominated legions of election deniers this cycle who believe that any Republican loss anywhere must obviously be due to fraud, even when zero proof exists.

So that others can share my paranoia, below are a few comments on some competitive intra-state races that I’m watching.  State races for federal offices (for US Senate & US House) are separate concerns.

Arizona

  • Gov:  Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) is running for re-election against AZ Rep. Andy Biggs (R), a MAGA cultist who voted against certifying the 2020 elections.  Democrats absolutely need to hold this swing state in order to guarantee fair 2028 elections in AZ.
  • SoS:  Secretary of State Adrian Fontes (D) is running for re-election against Alexander Kolodin (R).  Kolodin is a 2020 election denier who also worked to overturn the 2022 AZ Gov election in favor of Republican Kari Lake.  See bullet above.
  • AG: Incumbent AG Kris Mayes (D) is running against State Sen. Warren Petersen (R), another 2020 election denier who was responsible for AZ’s embarrassing Cyber Ninja election “audit” … that found nothing.
  • State Senate/House:  Both chambers currently have slim Republican majorities. Both are in-play in 2026.

Georgia

  • Gov:  Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) will face wealthy businessman Rick Jackson (R) in the GA Governor’s race.  Democrats haven’t won this office since 1998, but Bottoms is popular, accomplished, and an excellent communicator.  Jackson, on the other hand, is a MAGA acolyte who would certainly try to use his office to tilt the 2028 elections to Republicans.
  • SoS:  Judge Penny Brown Reynolds (D) will face State Sen. Timothy Kyle Fleming (R), a MAGA extremist.  A Fleming win would be a major obstacle to fair 2028 elections in GA.

Iowa

  • Gov:  IA isn’t exactly a swing state, but this is still an interesting race for an open office.  IA Republicans nominated Zach Lahn, a largely unknown MAHA devotee, instead of the Trump-endorsed MAGA candidate.  Democrats nominated State Auditor Rob Sand, who has been running a great campaign.

Michigan

  • Gov:  This race will see Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) running against U.S. Rep. John James (R), a Trump lapdog.
  • SoS:  Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist (D) is running against Macomb County Clerk Anthony Forlini (R), who has expressed support for Trump’s push to federalize elections that are constitutionally controlled by the states.
  • State Senate: Democrats currently control the Senate, but it’s in-play in 2026.
  • State House:  Republicans currently control the House, but it’s in play in 2026.

Minnesota

  • Gov:  The primaries will take place on 8/11, but the Democratic nominee will be Sen. Amy Klobuchar.  She’ll be favored against whoever wins the Republican contest. I’m hoping for Mike Lindell purely for the entertainment value.
  • AG:  Incumbent AG Keith Ellison (D) will face businessman Ron Schutz (R). This is shaping up to be a tight race and a Schutz win would give the GOP this important office for the first time in 60 years.
  • State House: The chamber is currently split and is up for grabs in 2026.

Nevada

  • Gov:  AG Aaron Ford (D) faces incumbent Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) in what looks to be a tight race.
  • SoS: Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar (D) is in a rematch for re-election against 2022 opponent Jim Marchant (R), an insane 2020 election denier.

New Hampshire

  • State House:  Currently controlled by Republicans, this 400-seat chamber can easily flip in every election.

North Carolina

  • State Supreme Court:  Justice Anita Earls (D) is being challenged by State Rep. Sarah Stevens (R). An Earls win would not change Republican control of the court. However, her win is necessary for Democrats to possibly flip the court in 2028 when three Republicans will be up for re-election.

Ohio

  • Gov:  This is another interesting race for an open office in a generally non-swing state. Despite a massive cash disadvantage, Amy Acton (D), a former director of the Ohio Department of Health, is currently running even with billionaire entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (R).  Turns out the DOGE dude is an incredibly lousy campaigner.

Pennsylvania

  • State Senate:  If Democrats can flip three seats in 2026, they’ll likely have a governing trifecta for the first time since 1993.

Wisconsin

  • Gov:  This will likely be State Rep. Francesca Hong (D) facing U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany (R).  While WI is a swing state with a centrist mentality, Democrats have been doing everything they can to lose this very winnable race. Hong is a self-described democratic socialist; Tiffany is yet another far-right Trump lackey. Either party could have guaranteed a win with a centrist candidate; both chose otherwise.
  • State Senate/House:  Both chambers are currently controlled by Republicans.  However, updated district maps make both chambers competitive in 2026.
  • WEC:  There’s currently a ton of drama surrounding the WI Election Commission.  I’m trying to pay attention to this soap opera, but it’s beyond the scope of this post.  Suffice it to say that the outcome here could be very important in 2028.

250

Saturday.  In the Park.

I think it was the Fourth of July.

While wishing I’d started my walk earlier in today’s Texas heat, I contemplated the celebration of our nation’s 250th birthday.  It quickly occurred to me that I’ve been alive for a not-insignificant percentage of that history.  Dandy.  I then flashed on the cheap carnival celebrations that have recently engulfed our nation’s capitol and the pseudo-patriotism of our country’s current leadership.  As depression was setting in, a voice in my head began to remind me of my own American Experience.

My father was a career Army officer who served from the start of WWII in 1941 until his retirement as a Colonel in 1974.  During my childhood, our family was stationed in Indiana, Georgia, Washington D.C., Texas, and Germany.  This privileged incarnation of American citizenship gifted me early exposure to varied cultures, environments, and educational systems.

I grew up in a family where morality, kindness, education, and respect for others were highly valued concepts.  I listened to excellent bands (including Chicago) on 8-track and cassette tapes.  I wrote long letters (in longhand) to distant friends from prior homes.  On special occasions, we splurged to make long-distance calls on our family’s rotary phone.

At 6pm, we’d manually turn our black-and-white TV to one of three stations where the whole nation watched Walter Cronkite, Chet Huntley, and David Brinkley step us through the major events of our time.  From the assassinations of JFK, RFK, & MLK to the Apollo 11 moon landing.  From the paranoia of the Cold War to the carnage of the Vietnam War.

My father subscribed to numerous newspapers and magazines which he would read every night in our living room.  Wanting to be just like my Dad, I’d pick up whatever he’d completed and would flip through the pages myself.  Over time, I advanced from just looking at the pictures to reading at least some of the articles.

Even at an early age, I somehow found myself drawn to stories about government.  Okay, I was more drawn to stories about the space program… but there weren’t as many of those.  Anyway, the idea that people with very different opinions could work together, compromise, and define something that everyone could support seemed interesting and, frankly, rather obvious to my young, naïve brain.  Government was a force for good.

Eventually, when I learned the differences and overlaps between statesmen, politicians, opportunists, and grifters, the political circus became much more fascinating than any TV show.  Government could still be a force for good.  It was just going to be messy.

Some circus performers were always more gifted than others.  I was (and remain) in awe of the great orators I saw on TV.  Others were better with the written word and I learned to respect a well-constructed argument even when I disagreed with it.  Across the political spectrum, the most effective members of government championed education and science, showed a willingness to compromise, and made intelligent appeals to the best of human nature.  Of course, there was always a contingent of clowns in the government circus.  In my youth, I mostly remember them being ignored or ridiculed – with McCarthy being a notable exception, at least for a while.

In recent years, however, the clowns have multiplied and have become the ringmasters.  More and more government officials have led assaults on education and science, have suppressed dissent, and have made ignorant appeals to our baser instincts.  Putting on a decent show of effective governance took a distant back seat to guaranteeing their continued employment in the circus.  Government in this form was no longer a force for good nor was it simply messy.  It became dangerous.

I realize that my own American Experience was a moment in time that will not be repeated.  This is as it should be.  Time moves on.  People can now communicate instantaneously across the world from a hand-held device.  Music and news from around the world can now be readily consumed on that same device.

But the speed with which we gather information and communicate with each other does not negate the need for an underlying value system that puts everything in context.  Indeed, the increased speed and volume of available data makes those values even more important.  Without constant vigilance, the now omnipresent voices of fearmongers and false prophets can easily blur the distinctions between right and wrong.  When given a moment of reflection, I have to believe that the vast majority of Americans are good, decent people who have the intrinsic ability to recognize good vs. evil – even when their government tells them otherwise.

Listen, children.  All is not lost.

My father fought wars to preserve the American Dream.  I honor his service by remembering that America is not its government.  At the moment, many of our leaders foster a distorted reflection of America at its very worst.  That is not who we are.  The “funhouse” mirror image of America is merely a circus mirage.  We have never needed an unprincipled charlatan to make America great “again”.   At our core, we’ve been great all along.  Eventually, we will exit the dystopian funhouse in which Americans are currently wandering.  It won’t be a walk in the park, but we will find our way out.

I wrote a speech entitled “Our Time” way back in 2008 during Barack Obama’s first campaign for the presidency.  I reposted it on this blog in 2020 and I’m referencing it once again on this American anniversary.  While the speech remains unspoken, I believe the words still apply.

Happy Independence Day!!

Senate 2026, Take 1

With an obvious disclaimer of “it’s early and things will change”, I won’t bury the lede:  Yes, Democrats could win the Senate in 2026, but they will need some significant luck to do it.

Here’s a map of the 13 Senate seats that I consider to be even remotely in-play in 2026.  The grey states either have no Senate election in 2026 or are so solidly party-locked that I’m not even paying attention.

Here’s a table summary of the 13 races, in decreasing order of a “D” win probability.  Democrats need to net four additional Senate seats to take the majority.  The “easiest” path would be to win ALL of the Likely D, Lean D, AND Toss-Up races.  Democrats would need to replace any losses in those races with Lean R or Likely R wins.

As I said, Democrats are going to need some serious luck.

Several of the above Senate races look like pitches for bad soap operas, complete with tangled plot lines and almost comically evil villains.  Here are state-by-state summaries of the unfolding drama.

Minnesota

Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) isn’t running for re-election, thus making her MN Senate seat slightly competitive.  While the primaries aren’t until 8/11, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D-MN) currently has a polling lead over Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) for the Democratic nomination.  Former sports broadcaster Michelle Tafoya and former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze are competing for the GOP nomination.

Assuming that Flanagan and Craig can avoid destroying each other in the primary, either Democrat should be able to beat either Republican in the general election.  However, Democrats can’t completely ignore an open race – even in a Democratic-leaning state.  (More worrisome is Craig’s abandonment of her House seat to run for the Senate.  Her House district tilts Democratic but will be in-play without her.  Wonderful.)

My Take:  I’m waiting until both parties pick their nominees before I further evaluate the race.

Georgia

Incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is the lone sitting Democratic Senator in a competitive 2026 race and he’s running an excellent re-election campaign thus far.

Ossoff’s opponent will be Rep. Mike Collins (R-FL).  The Republican primary isn’t until 6/16, but Collins has maintained a substantial lead in the primary polls.  Trump’s team just recently saw the numbers and endorsed Collins so that Trump can claim credit for his nomination.  Collins is just another Trump stooge who has been a regular subject of bipartisan House ethics probes, mostly concerning personal use of congressional funds.

My Take:  Democrats need to protect this seat and Ossoff deserves support.

See:  Ossoff’s Campaign WebsiteActBlue Page.

New Hampshire

Incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) isn’t running, making NH an open, competitive seat.  The New Hampshire primaries aren’t until 9/8, but the likely nominees are Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) and former Sen. John Sununu (R-NH).  NH is a Democratic-leaning state and Sununu seems to be embracing a president who is increasingly unpopular here.  Still, the GOP sees NH as a major pickup opportunity and will flood Sununu’s campaign with cash.

My Take:  Pappas could use some help keeping this seat in the Democratic column.

See:  Pappas’ Campaign Website & ActBlue Page.

North Carolina

The Trump-forced retirement of Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) made this an open, competitive seat.  Popular former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) is the Democratic nominee who will face Republican lobbyist and former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley in November.  Qualified vs. Unqualified.

My Take:  This is probably the best pickup opportunity for Democrats in 2026.

See:  Cooper’s Campaign Website & ActBlue Page.

Alaska

Alaska has unique voting rules that should be a model for how to run all U.S. elections.  Every candidate in Alaska runs for a given office in a single primary election.  The top four vote-getters in the primary, regardless of party, advance to the general election.  The general election is then conducted using a ranked choice format to pick a winner.

We can safely assume that both Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) and Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) will advance to the general election.  Although Peltola is running against a sitting Senator in a Republican-leaning state, she’s got a solid chance here.  She’s very popular and was the first Alaska Native elected to Congress.  Also, since Alaska only has one representative in the U.S. House, her wins there have been statewide.

My Take:  Even though the AK primary isn’t until 8/18, Peltola is a lock for making the top four.  I also like her chances in the general election.

See:  Peltola’s Campaign Website & ActBlue Page.

Ohio

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is looking to get his old job back.  His opponent is incumbent Sen. John Husted (R-OH) – who was appointed to replace now-VP JD Vance.  Strangely, that means the challenger has previously won this seat in an election while the incumbent has not.  OH definitely leans Republican, but Brown is well-known and popular.  Husted has been mostly invisible.

My Take:  This is a flippable seat but it won’t be easy in a Republican-leaning state.

See:  Brown’s Campaign Website & ActBlue Page.

Maine

This should have been an easy Democratic flip.  Incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) isn’t particularly popular.  Early plans were for Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) to secure the Democratic nomination and coast to victory.  But upstart candidate Graham Platner – a veteran turned oyster farmer – became a progressive darling, received a ton of endorsements and money, and won the Democratic nod.  Dandy.  Except, …

Platner’s past is becoming more problematic by the minute.  The scandals have been non-stop – from a Nazi-esqe tattoo, to abhorrent past comments on rape, to infidelity.  Worse, Platner’s aggressively defensive handling of the scandals would seem to be remarkably ill-advised.  However, despite the scandals, Platner appears to be holding onto a substantial polling lead over Collins.  Perhaps ME voters appreciate Platner’s anti-establishment vibe.  Or perhaps they’re just so fed up with Collins that they simply don’t care.

My Take:  This is an important flip target for Democrats and Collins has not been good for ME or for the country.  ME Democrats seems to be happy with their candidate of choice, so I’m currently sitting this one out.

Michigan

Incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) is retiring, making this a competitive, open race.  The MI primaries aren’t until 8/4, but former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) is running unopposed for the Republican nomination – giving him a head-start in the general election.

Democrats, of course, are doing their very best to lose a very winnable race.  Three decent Democratic candidates – Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and former public health official Abdul El-Sayed – are busy beating up on each other with competing endorsements from major party players.  MI Democrats seem to be more worried about ideological nuances in August than about winning in November.  As a result, a whole lot of money is being spent by Democrats against other Democrats in a must-win state.  Rogers couldn’t be happier.

My Take:  I’m on pause here.  Once MI Democrats figure out what they’re doing, I’ll re-evaluate the race.

Nebraska

Here’s a fun one.

Incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE) is running for re-election in a very red state.  What should have been a GOP gimme became a competitive race with the candidacy of independent Dan Osborn – a Navy vet & mechanic – who is running an impressive outsider campaign.

NE Democrats rightly determined that (a) they had no chance of winning this election and (b) an independent would be a much better alternative than a Trump sycophant.  Thus, Democrats initially chose not to run any candidate at all and instead threw their support behind Osborn.

NE Republicans, however, decided to run their own stealth candidate in the Democratic primary whose sole purpose would be to siphon votes from Osborn in the general election.  Democrats then quickly regrouped to run a candidate – Cindy Burbank – who simply pledged to drop out if she won.

Burbank indeed won the Democratic primary and, as promised, is trying to drop out of the general election.  However, GOP leaders in NE are now refusing to remove Burbank’s name from the general election ballot – again in a brazen attempt to siphon enough votes from Osborn to guarantee a Ricketts plurality win.

This will end up in NE courts run by GOP judges and we all know how that will turn out.  We can only hope that enough voters in NE show their discomfort with dirty politics.  I’m not holding my breath.

My Take:  I’ll be donating against the NE GOP … which means I’ll be donating to the long-shot Osborn campaign.

See:  Osborn’s Campaign Website & ActBlue Page.

Texas

I’ve already weighed in on the race between Rep. James Talarico (D-TX) and AG Ken Paxton (R-TX) in my home state.  With no hint of hyperbole, this is a choice of good vs. evil.  It’s as simple as that.  Paxton is beyond corrupt and Texas can do better.  In fact, if this race was happening anywhere but in Texas, it would be considerably higher on my list.  Remember back in 2017 when Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) won his seat over Republican Roy Moore?  Moore’s disgusting behavior was just too much for voters in Alabama.  Will Texas really lower the decency bar below deep-crimson ALABAMA?

My Take:  While this will be an uphill battle, of course I’m contributing to Talarico’s campaign.

See:  Talarico’s Campaign Website & ActBlue Page.

Iowa

Incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) isn’t running for re-election.  The Republican nominee is Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) – an ambitious, rising star in Republican politics.  The Democratic nominee is State Rep. Josh Turek (R-IA).  Turek is a good campaigner with an inspiring backstory.  Born with spina bifida, he won two gold medals in the Paralympics and became the first disabled member of the IA legislature.  While unpopular Trump administration policies have made IA slightly more competitive for Democrats, it remains a very red state.

My Take:  I like Turek, but IA may be a bridge too far in 2026.  I’ll keep watching, though.

Florida

This is a special election to fill the remainder of the term that Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) won in 2022.  Former FL AG Ashley Moody was appointed to serve temporarily as Senator (after Rubio became Secretary of State) and she has not been good for FL.  While the primaries aren’t until 8/18, Moody will be the GOP nominee.

Democrats will choose between Lt. Col. (Ret) Alex Vindman and State Rep. Angela Nixon.  Vindman, best known as the whistleblower in the 2019 Trump–Ukraine scandal, appears to be the favorite to advance to the general election.

Conducting a statewide campaign in this very red state with its complex media market would be challeging for even a seasoned Democratic politician.  Vindman has never run for any office in any election.  While I’d love to see Vindman win, I just don’t see it happening at the moment.

My Take:  After the primary, I’ll re-evaluate the race.  For now, I’m on pause.

Montana

Incumbent Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) announced at the very last moment that he wasn’t running for re-election in 2026.  He literally waited until minutes before the filing deadline before he withdrew, followed immediately by his hand-picked candidate – U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme – submitting the paperwork to take Daines’ place in the Republican primary.  That shady sequence pissed off a lot of MT Republicans who didn’t appreciate having any candidate forced upon them.  Democrats would have been in a decent position to flip the seat… except for the fact that, as Democrats, they are inherently adept a foot-shooting.

The Democrats nominated Lt. Col. (Ret) Alani Bankhead.  She’s a good candidate.  However, former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar is also running as a well-funded independent with significant Democratic endorsements.  He’s also a good candidate.  While both agree that Alme is a horrible choice, they could possibly split a majority of MT votes in the general election and give Alme a plurality win.  Both Bankhead and Bodnar want the other to drop out.  We’ll see.

My Take:  I currently consider MT to be a lost cause unless Bankhead or Bodnar drop out.  Even then, it’d still be very difficult for either to beat Alme.  I’ll keep watching to see if anything changes.

Campaign Donations

I’ve been asked numerous questions over the years regarding political campaign donations. This  side-note post serves as something for me to share in future responses.  I’ll get back to the 2026 elections (and donations to those campaigns) shortly.

When to Donate

In general, early donations are better than late donations.  On the other hand, campaigns do love to brag about increasing contributions over time.  My advice is to let the campaigns worry about budgeting and donate whenever you feel like doing something constructive.

The only caveat pertains to FEC reporting dates.  The government requires all campaigns to file financial statements during the course of each election cycle.  While these filings have little to do with campaign budgeting, they are often used – when the data is good – to help drive the narrative that a campaign is healthy, vibrant, and/or doing better than an opponent’s campaign.  The reports can alternatively be used to show how desperately a campaign needs money – the political equivalent of begging for change on a street corner.

Two sets of FEC reporting dates are the most relevant this cycle.  All campaigns must close their books on 6/30 & 9/30 in order to file the FEC paperwork by 7/15 & 10/15, respectively.  Campaigns will gladly accept money whenever they can get it, but a donation received by COB on 6/30 is slightly more useful to them than a donation received the morning of 7/1.

Where to Donate

I generally prefer to donate directly to individual campaigns so that I know exactly where my money is going.

I will occasionally donate to a well-run PAC (Political Action Committee) that provides a service that benefits multiple candidates (e.g., advertising buys, voter registration, get-out-the-vote efforts).  If I have neither the time nor desire to do my own research, I might also donate to a PAC that intelligently re-distributes money to a deserving subset of candidates.  Many PACs, however, are minimally useful with maximum overhead.  Some PACs are just scams.  Be careful.

The vast majority of Democratic campaigns (and PACs) use ActBlue to handle donations.  ActBlue offloads much of the money handling mechanics from the campaigns and provides them data for their necessary FEC filings.  A campaign’s ActBlue setup is quite simple, including the design of a hosted campaign donation form.  While the form is easily customizable, some campaigns are better with aesthetics than others.  In any case, the underlying transactions are well-handled by ActBlue, not by the campaigns.

By the way, ActBlue operates as a non-profit organization.  They take 3.95% of each donation to cover credit card fees, hosting services, software development, and support.  No setup or monthly fees are charged.  It’s a good deal for the campaigns and gives donors a common, secure transaction platform.

How to Donate

ActBlue is also quite easy to use from a donor’s perspective. While one-off donations can be made, setting up a donor account is straight-forward and enables a user to easily make multiple donations to multiple campaigns without a ton of repetitive work.  ActBlue also has reporting features to help donors keep track of when, where, and how much they’ve contributed.

You will notice that “suggested” donation amounts appear as buttons on the form and that those amounts vary from campaign to campaign.  The numbers are just configuration settings that some campaigns haven’t tweaked.  If you don’t see a button with the amount you want to donate, just type your desired dollar amount into the button with the blank field.

Of course, campaign donations are going to put you on contact lists.  You just have to live with that.  Campaigns know that people who have donated once are MUCH more likely to donate again.  There are, however, a few things that you can do to manage the spam.

  • Use a separate email account.  My ActBlue profile uses a Gmail address that I set up just for this (and similar) purposes.  Most political panhandling goes here.  I check the account, but not daily.  When I do, I might scan the Subject fields for hints of cleverness.  Mostly, I just empty the inbox.
  • Unsubscribe.  In my experience, most political campaigns are decent about accepting an Unsubscribe request within a few days.  I generally don’t bother, though, unless the email comes to an address that I didn’t provide.  For those campaigns that consistently ignore an Unsubscribe request, they are reported as spam and blocked.
  • Use Google Voice.  I also have a free Google Voice account that I use whenever I’m asked to provide a phone number to someone with whom I have no desire to converse.  Spam texts & voicemails go here.  Since I see no valid reason for any campaign to call or text me, I check this even less often than the above Gmail account … and mostly just to clear it.

Whatever you do, you’re still going to get tons of melodramatic spam.  It’s impressive that just $5 will save American democracy and prevent the Apocalypse.

Take some solace in the fact that the candidates aren’t spending the wee hours of every morning composing these pathetic, online pleas.  They were either written by a poor AI model or by some young, unpaid intern with a mailing list and an old laptop.  The candidates themselves are somewhere making pathetic, in-person pleas to big-dollar donors.  The professional staffs are busy trying to actually run things.  From the campaigns’ perspectives, this form of online “outreach” costs NOTHING.  So, if it pulls in even a few bucks, they’re happy.

[ Yes, I am aware that there is indeed one idiot politician who is often online at 2am, personally spamming the world.  He’s not on ActBlue. ]

FYI, for my own analytics, I do look at campaign websites, ActBlue customizations, apparent donor contact practices, etc. as minor indicators of the competence of campaign staffs.  I’m more interested in knowing if the staffs can raise money, get exposure, reach new voters, and get their supporters to the polls.  But the little stuff also matters.

Bottom Line

Show your support!  It’s easy.  And even small donations add up.

2026 Elections in Texas

In my previous post, I claimed that it was too early to do much analysis regarding the 2026 election.  I lied.  Well, kinda.  The primaries in Texas are just over and, while considerable dust still needs to settle, I think I have enough data to offer early thoughts on some of my own state’s races.

Let’s begin with a given:  Texas is a red state.  That’s just the way it is.  There are more voting Republicans than voting Democrats in residence.  However, as I’ve previously discussed, Texas is nowhere near as red as our ridiculously gerrymandered U.S. House district map would indicate.  Republicans generously account for maybe 56% of regular voters while our district map favors Republicans in 79% of our districts.  Ouch.

As they have in every election cycle this century, the Texas Democratic Party is claiming that they will magically turn things around and sweep the races this year.  They won’t.  It doesn’t help that the organization and leadership of the Texas party somehow makes our national party look competent.

On the other hand, things aren’t all doom and gloom in Texas.  Democrats managed to nominate a very good slate of candidates while Republicans made some extremely problematic choices.  Democrats’ best hope is to win around the edges by:

  • energizing the Democratic base to actually vote,
  • increasing the Democratic percentage of independent voters,
  • increasing the turnout of largely Democratic young voters,
  • winning back some of the Hispanic & Black voters who voted Republican (or didn’t vote) in 2024,
  • convincing good Christian Republicans to withhold their votes from the most morally bankrupt GOP candidates (flagged below with “[666]”).

Below are a few of the more interesting Texas races, with ActBlue donation links for the Democrats.

At the moment, many of the major statewide Texas races just don’t look winnable by Democrats.  Our candidates are actually very good and will likely perform much better than is generally expected.  Unfortunately, close won’t count.

  • GovernorGina Hinojosa (D) vs. Greg Abbott (R).
    • Abbott isn’t beatable. That’s unfortunate.
  • Lt. GovernorVicki Goodwin (D) vs. Dan Patrick (R).
    • Patrick isn’t beatable.  That’s very unfortunate.
  • Attorney GeneralNathan Johnson (D) vs. Mayes Middleton (R).
    • Middleton will be an absolute disaster but his personal wealth will make him very tough to beat.
  • Railroad CommissionerJon Rosenthal (D) vs. Bo French (R) [666].
    • French is a piece of… work.  He’s an unapologetic bigot who doesn’t know a damn thing about the oil & gas industry – which is regulated in Texas by the Railroad Commission.  While even top GOP officials in Texas (Abbott, Patrick, etc.) have said that he’s dangerous, he still unexpectedly won his primary.  Rosenthal, on the other hand, is a career oil & gas engineer and is known as a kind, thoughtful nerd.  Unfortunately, he’s going to be seriously outspent in the general election and, this being Texas, the bad joke with the (R) after his name is heavily favored.

However, …

    • Democrats actually have a shot here.  In the 2018 mid-term election with Trump in the White House, Beto O’Rourke (D) came within 2.6% of beating Sen. Ted Cruz (R).  Talarico is a much better candidate than O’Rourke; Paxton is a much worse candidate than Cruz.
    • Talarico is a smart seminarian, an excellent orator, and a nice guy.  Paxton is a crook, a liar, a philanderer, and a disgusting excuse for a human being.  A vote for Paxton would require a remarkable display of moral flexibility from anyone who considers themselves a Christian.
    • National Republicans have already indicated they might reluctantly have to spend upwards of $250 million to protect the Senate seat – money they could have spent elsewhere if Texas Republicans had instead re-nominated Sen. John Cornyn (R).
    • Talarico seems to be building a good general election campaign which might simply repeat much of Cornyn’s primary campaign.  Cornyn’s quite accurate negative ads couldn’t compete with Trump’s endorsement of Paxton, but those same ads should resonate quite well with non-Republicans.  Also, Trump’s endorsement could actually bring out additional general election voters for Talarico .
    • The imminently qualified Eckhardt has at least a chance of beating the corrupt, ultra-right Huffines.  Even Abbott campaigned heavily against Huffines in the primary.  Since the Comptroller is essentially the CFO of Texas, Huffines would be quite dangerous to our state’s financial health.

Only a handful of the 38 U.S. House races in Texas look even somewhat competitive under our new map.  Dandy.  Since I don’t yet know where these races rank in the national picture, I’ll simply list them for now:

    • Democrats have a decent chance to retain these two seats, but neither is a slam dunk.
    • While the Republicans seem likely to win these three races at the moment, I’ll be watching to see if any of the Democrats can show traction.
    • Yeah, okay.  Shepard is a long shot.  But I got gerrymandered into this insanely-shaped district and I’ll stand my ground.

I’ll start making a few in-state campaign donations in the near future.  I’ll eventually throw some money to many of the Democrats above — even to those with somewhat dim chances of victory. This is my home, things can change, and miracles do happen.

However, I will personally skew my initial Texas donations to Talarico – while holding good thoughts, crossing my fingers, clutching my rabbit’s foot, and wishing upon a Lone Star.

2026 Election Season

I’ve been surprised by the number of people who have asked me to weigh in on the 2026 election season.  Summarizing and paraphrasing, folks seem to be asking two basic questions:

  1. Do Democrats have a chance in Hell of winning, well, anything?
  2. What can a normal person do that might move the ball in the general direction of sanity?

Frankly, I’m mostly surprised that anyone still gives a shit about my opinions.  I admittedly let this blog languish in the wake of the 2024 debacle.  All of my subsequent attempts at issue-oriented posts quickly digressed into profanity-laden missives that were unworthy of even this infinitesimal corner of the Internet.  I grew increasingly weary of attempting Headline Whack-A-Mole – swinging wildly at a never-ending progression of verminous governmental actions that were idiotic, narcissistic, malicious, dangerous, and/or unequivocally evil.  It just wasn’t fun.

Eventually, I do hope to again find joy in posting minimally-coherent, issue-oriented rants.  In the meantime, however, perhaps the best use of this space is indeed an analytical focus on 2026 elections.  As part of my own personal response to Question 2 above, I can at least give it a shot.

As for Question 1, the short answer is “Probably yes.”  Knocking on all available wood surfaces, Democrats do currently appear to have at least a fighting chance of gaining control of some portion of government.  Unfortunately, it’s too early to prognosticate with any significant degree of confidence.

Candidates for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and various state offices are still being decided in a plethora of on-going party primaries lasting into September.  Some U.S. House candidates don’t even yet know in which district they will run.  (For those emerging from under a rock:  Six SCOTUS justices decided earlier this year that the Jim Crow racial caste system was actually a pretty damn good idea and, accordingly, trashed the 60-year-old Voting Rights Act.  As a result, U.S. House Districts are being hastily redrawn in several states to heavily favor white Republicans at the expense of Black representation.)

Each individual race will have its own unique set of important variables:  the two candidates themselves, their campaigns’ competence & funding, their party’s support (federal, state, & local), the top of their state’s ticket, the demographics & economics of each district/state, etc.  Variables abound, many with values still TBD.  Furthermore, late-game executive actions attempting to limit voting rights, intimidate voters, and influence vote counts are, sadly, all-but-guaranteed in our current reality.

All that said, if I didn’t have a gut belief in a potentially positive outcome, I wouldn’t even bother to do the research to address Question 2.

With respect to that query, individual campaigns will most often provide the best targets for those who want to offer their assistance. For anyone with the time, energy, and inclination, political campaigns can always use warm bodies to support get-out-the-vote efforts.  Campaign websites will have information about volunteering and it’s very important work.  For others, monetary donations made directly to individual campaigns are likely to be the most effective way to show support.

At the moment, though, I’m largely keeping my powder dry and my cash allotment for 2026 political donations in the bank.  I certainly have some preferred candidates, but I’m content to let the primaries run their course without my involvement.  Personally, I’d rather my money be used against Republicans in the general election.

Even where we know the candidates, we might not yet understand the complete political landscape (at the district, state, and/or federal level) in which the general election campaign will be conducted.

Our goal is to win 51 seats in the Senate, 218 seats in the House, and Governor’s races in battleground states.  As the primaries wind down, I’ll start analyzing which Senate, House, and Governor races are winnable / defendable and which are likely to make the best use of additional campaign donations to reach as many of those goals as possible.  I’ll post my selections with their ActBlue donations links for anyone that might want to make political contributions to specific campaigns.

There are also a few decent political action committees that could be deserving of donations and I’ll note them as appropriate.  Fair warning, though, that many PACs these days have excessive overhead and, IMHO, aren’t often the best use of individual donations.

Unfortunately, I can’t recommend donating directly to the Democratic party and their associated PACs.  If Democrats in D.C. were better organized and had better leadership, this election cycle would be a whole lot easier.  We’d be in a much better position if Democrats had adopted a plan similar to what I suggested over a year ago.  Of if they’d just adopted a plan.  Any plan.

Instead, we’re largely winging it and counting on the fact that we’re not quite as dysfunctional as Republicans.  And, just maybe, that’ll be enough.