Things have changed a bit since I last weighed in on the Senate races in 2024. Things will change again. However, here’s my current snapshot:
The above table is sorted by the likelihood that the seat will be held by a Democrat in 2024. I was frankly surprised that my current model turned out to as favorable to Democrats as it is. Almost all professional pundits put the Senate completely out of reach for Democrats in 2024. My model says it’s a VERY tough road, but Democrats at least have a fighting chance to maintain a 50/50 split and, if Biden/Harris wins the Presidency, a 50/50 Senate is good enough. By “tough”, I mean that Democrats would have to run the table on all Senate contests in which my model says they are slightly favored AND win both contests that my model says are Toss Ups.
There’s even an outside chance of Democrats maintaining their current 51/49 majority. By “outside chance”, I mean “tough” plus Democrats would also need to win the one race that my model says is Lean R.
Here are brief, subjective looks at each state contest above:
- California: Democrat Adam Schiff will beat Republican Steve Garvey in the general election. The problem is that two House Democrats in addition to Schiff resigned to run for this Senate seat. Katie Porter will be sorely missed in the House and her district is now in-play to be flipped Republican. Barbara Lee’s district isn’t at risk, but we lost a competent legislator. Sigh.
- Maryland: This is an open 2024 seat. Larry Hogan, the popular former Governor of Maryland, unfortunately changed his mind about running and will be the Republican nominee. David Trone, the founder of Total Wine & More, could mostly self-fund his campaign and has a slight polling lead for the Democratic nomination. Given a competent campaign, Trone should be able to defeat Hogan in deep-blue Maryland, even given Hogan’s name recognition advantage. Hogan’s popularity is mostly related to state issues that likely won’t apply as well to the national stage. In a sense, it’s sad. Hogan is actually a sane Republican – a rare breed these days. However, Democrats cannot afford to lose this seat and they’ll be forced to spend some money here.
- Pennsylvania: Current Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is well-liked in PA and should win re-election. However, the likely Republican nominee, David McCormick, is a former Army Ranger and hedge-fund CEO who will put up a good, well-funded fight.
- Michigan: This is an open seat in a purple state. U.S. Rep Elissa Slotkin is the presumptive Democratic nominee but there are about a dozen candidates competing in what could be an ugly GOP primary that won’t be resolved until August. The Orange Guy recently waded into this race by endorsing former Rep. Mike Rogers, immediately making him the current favorite. Rogers has been out of politics for about a decade and it’s unclear at this point how competitive he will be against Slotkin’s popularity and formidable fundraising abilities.
- Wisconsin: Current Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is popular in WI but this purple state is never a sure thing. Likely Republican nominee Eric Hovde, the multi-millionaire CEO of Sunwest Bank, certainly has the bankroll to make this a competitive race. He has the endorsement of the Orange Guy – which might prove to be mixed bag in Wisconsin. Already, Hovde is trying to walk a tightrope that could well backfire with both the MAGA crowd and the anti-MAGA crowd. Also, while both Baldwin and Hovde were born and raised in Wisconsin, only Baldwin can claim continuous residency. Hovde lived in Washington, DC for most of his adult life, works for a Utah company without a presence in Wisconsin, and owns a $7M California estate. He moved back to Wisconsin just to run for the Senate and Wisconsinites aren’t generally fond of carpetbaggers.
- Ohio: Current Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has been the rare Democrat to win state-wide in red-leaning Ohio over the last decade. Brown is popular in OH but a good GOP candidate would have made this a very competitive race. Thankfully, Republicans settled on Bernie Moreno, the Orange Guy’s favorite candidate, who has wasted no time sucking up. State Sen. Matt Dolan would have been a much tougher opponent for Brown but he didn’t sufficiently genuflect to the MAGA gods to appease the GOP base. That said, this race is most certainly not a slam dunk given Ohio’s demographics.
- Arizona: Current independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema decided against running in 2024, leaving this race a likely contest between Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake. Lake is a far-right conspiracy theorist who has alienated pretty much everyone in Arizona except for the fire-breathing MAGA crowd. Unfortunately, Gallego is a unapologetic progressive who doesn’t have a stellar history of playing well with the center, either. This race will be narrowly won by whoever is most successful at rebranding between now and November. My money’s on Gallego. Lake’s ego will make this all about her past grievances and Arizona is very tired of that story.
- Nevada: First-term Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is in for a tough re-election contest in a purple state. Republicans haven’t quite settled on a challenger yet, but it looks like Sam Brown will win the GOP nomination over far-right nut-job Jim Marchant. That’s not good news for Democrats. Brown is a retired Army officer and a purple heart recipient for severe injuries in Afghanistan.
- Montana: Current Democratic Sen. Jon Tester has survived since 2007 in deep-red Montana and he still has a powerful brand. However, Democratic hopes of a repeat contest against far-right idiot Rep. Matt Rosendale have been dashed and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy will be his opponent. Sheehy is wealthy enough to self-fund his campaign and has proven himself to be a competent politician. Crap.
- Florida: Current Republican Sen. Rick Scott isn’t particularly well-liked nor is he a particularly talented politician. However, Scott is a rich incumbent in an increasingly red state. The current surprise is just how well Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is doing at the moment. Even with almost no statewide name recognition, she’s polling well. While Florida is one of the most expensive states in which to run an insurgent campaign, Democrats should spend some money here.
- Texas: As a Texan, I’d love to declare that current Republican Sen. Ted Cruz can be beaten. However, while U.S. Rep. Colin Allred might get within low single digits of Cruz and could easily do better than Beto O’Rourke did against Cruz, I unfortunately see no reasonable path to an actual win. I’ll admit that I considered tweaking my Democratic turnout projections in Texas to make this race closer. I just can’t force myself to believe that possibility. I’ll still be writing a check, though, just to make me feel better. And miracles do happen!
- West Virginia: With current Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin deciding against a run, this seat is a slam-dunk pickup for the GOP. Anyone with an (R) beside their name would beat any Democrat in this race. The fact that Republican Jim Justice is popular will just make the margins larger.
Lest anyone thinks I’m being a Pollyanna (in which case we’ve never actually met), allow me to be clear. At the moment, it’s more likely than not that Democrats will come up slightly short of maintaining a Senate majority. It’s just not quite time to panic about it.
So what can we do now? If you feel strongly about individual states, I suggest finding your candidate’s campaign website and donating directly to their campaign. Sadly, the DSCC, the independent Blue Senate PAC, and numerous other groups appear to be way too egalitarian – spreading money evenly across Senate races that matter, races that don’t need help, and races that aren’t winnable. Democrats. Geez. Don’t waste your money. If you want a one-stop donation site to help maintain a Democratic Senate majority, here’s my recommendation:
- Senate Majority PAC: This is an independent group associated with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Schumer really wants to remain the Majority Leader and he has excellent political instincts. The PAC has a ton of money already and they seem to be using it wisely in states where the money will be put to the best use.