(Political Ramblings from a Little Left of Center)
I’ve been asked where I’m contributing money as we enter the final stages of the 2026 mid-terms. My current round of campaign contributions will be my last for this election cycle and it’s still a work-in-progress. As the campaigns begin their final sprints, I will complete this set well before the end of September (the…
Two months until Election Day! Below are quick updates regarding the federal elections that I’ve previously examined. U.S. Senate Races Here’s my current summary of 12 competitive Senate races, in decreasing order of a Democratic win probability:And a few notes: I see no reason yet to reorder or reclassify the first seven races on my…
I have been quite comfortable functioning within the confines of my research bubble while examining Democratic chances in the upcoming elections. I will again retreat to the sanity of analytics in due course. However, as a side project, I started to update my ever-growing list of grievances with the current administration. My original list from…
Forecasting the weather for November 3 might be easier than forecasting the U.S. House races being held that day. However, since people keep asking me whether Democrats will take control of the House in the upcoming election, I’ll weigh in. Disclaimers & Caveats Nothing is certain. The election is almost three months away and things…
Coverage of the 2026 mid-terms has been focused on whether Democrats can flip control of the US House and/or the US Senate for the next two years. This blog shares the media’s prioritization of the 35 Senate seats and 435 House seats that are up for election this year. However, in the same November election,…
Saturday. In the Park. I think it was the Fourth of July. While wishing I’d started my walk earlier in today’s Texas heat, I contemplated the celebration of our nation’s 250th birthday. It quickly occurred to me that I’ve been alive for a not-insignificant percentage of that history. Dandy. I then flashed on the cheap…
With an obvious disclaimer of “it’s early and things will change”, I won’t bury the lede: Yes, Democrats could win the Senate in 2026, but they will need some significant luck to do it. Here’s a map of the 13 Senate seats that I consider to be even remotely in-play in 2026. The grey states…
I’ve been asked numerous questions over the years regarding political campaign donations. This side-note post serves as something for me to share in future responses. I’ll get back to the 2026 elections (and donations to those campaigns) shortly. When to Donate In general, early donations are better than late donations. On the other hand, campaigns…
In my previous post, I claimed that it was too early to do much analysis regarding the 2026 election. I lied. Well, kinda. The primaries in Texas are just over and, while considerable dust still needs to settle, I think I have enough data to offer early thoughts on some of my own state’s races.…
I’ve been surprised by the number of people who have asked me to weigh in on the 2026 election season. Summarizing and paraphrasing, folks seem to be asking two basic questions: Do Democrats have a chance in Hell of winning, well, anything? What can a normal person do that might move the ball in the…