Coverage of the 2026 mid-terms has been focused on whether Democrats can flip control of the US House and/or the US Senate for the next two years. This blog shares the media’s prioritization of the 35 Senate seats and 435 House seats that are up for election this year.
However, in the same November election, Americans will elect 36 Governors, 26 Secretaries of State, 30 State Attorneys General, 63 State Supreme Court justices, around 5,800 state legislators, and massive numbers of municipal, county, and other local officials. That’s a whole lot of government potentially being reset in what is generally considered an “off-year” election that does not include a Presidential vote.
While I follow numerous races in my home state of Texas, my sanity requires that I pay attention to only a small subset of contests in other states that could possibly have national implications.
In today’s hyper-partisan political environment, fair elections are sadly not a given. While specific power dynamics vary from state-to-state, some combination of the Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, and state legislatures are responsible for running elections, certifying elections, and defending elections from outside (read: federal) interference. State officials are also responsible for filling Senate & House seats that become vacant – either by appointment or by calling (or delaying) special elections. While I have no issue with numerous Republicans who can and do run fair elections in their states, the GOP has nominated legions of election deniers this cycle who believe that any Republican loss anywhere must obviously be due to fraud, even when zero proof exists.
So that others can share my paranoia, below are a few comments on some competitive intra-state races that I’m watching. State races for federal offices (for US Senate & US House) are separate concerns.
Arizona
- Gov: Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) is running for re-election against AZ Rep. Andy Biggs (R), a MAGA cultist who voted against certifying the 2020 elections. Democrats absolutely need to hold this swing state in order to guarantee fair 2028 elections in AZ.
- SoS: Secretary of State Adrian Fontes (D) is running for re-election against Alexander Kolodin (R). Kolodin is a 2020 election denier who also worked to overturn the 2022 AZ Gov election in favor of Republican Kari Lake. See bullet above.
- AG: Incumbent AG Kris Mayes (D) is running against State Sen. Warren Petersen (R), another 2020 election denier who was responsible for AZ’s embarrassing Cyber Ninja election “audit” … that found nothing.
- State Senate/House: Both chambers currently have slim Republican majorities. Both are in-play in 2026.
Georgia
- Gov: Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) will face wealthy businessman Rick Jackson (R) in the GA Governor’s race. Democrats haven’t won this office since 1998, but Bottoms is popular, accomplished, and an excellent communicator. Jackson, on the other hand, is a MAGA acolyte who would certainly try to use his office to tilt the 2028 elections to Republicans.
- SoS: Judge Penny Brown Reynolds (D) will face State Sen. Timothy Kyle Fleming (R), a MAGA extremist. A Fleming win would be a major obstacle to fair 2028 elections in GA.
Iowa
- Gov: IA isn’t exactly a swing state, but this is still an interesting race for an open office. IA Republicans nominated Zach Lahn, a largely unknown MAHA devotee, instead of the Trump-endorsed MAGA candidate. Democrats nominated State Auditor Rob Sand, who has been running a great campaign.
Michigan
- Gov: This race will see Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) running against U.S. Rep. John James (R), a Trump lapdog.
- SoS: Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist (D) is running against Macomb County Clerk Anthony Forlini (R), who has expressed support for Trump’s push to federalize elections that are constitutionally controlled by the states.
- State Senate: Democrats currently control the Senate, but it’s in-play in 2026.
- State House: Republicans currently control the House, but it’s in play in 2026.
Minnesota
- Gov: The primaries will take place on 8/11, but the Democratic nominee will be Sen. Amy Klobuchar. She’ll be favored against whoever wins the Republican contest. I’m hoping for Mike Lindell purely for the entertainment value.
- AG: Incumbent AG Keith Ellison (D) will face businessman Ron Schutz (R). This is shaping up to be a tight race and a Schutz win would give the GOP this important office for the first time in 60 years.
- State House: The chamber is currently split and is up for grabs in 2026.
Nevada
- Gov: AG Aaron Ford (D) faces incumbent Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) in what looks to be a tight race.
- SoS: Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar (D) is in a rematch for re-election against 2022 opponent Jim Marchant (R), an insane 2020 election denier.
New Hampshire
- State House: Currently controlled by Republicans, this 400-seat chamber can easily flip in every election.
North Carolina
- State Supreme Court: Justice Anita Earls (D) is being challenged by State Rep. Sarah Stevens (R). An Earls win would not change Republican control of the court. However, her win is necessary for Democrats to possibly flip the court in 2028 when three Republicans will be up for re-election.
Ohio
- Gov: This is another interesting race for an open office in a generally non-swing state. Despite a massive cash disadvantage, Amy Acton (D), a former director of the Ohio Department of Health, is currently running even with billionaire entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (R). Turns out the DOGE dude is an incredibly lousy campaigner.
Pennsylvania
- State Senate: If Democrats can flip three seats in 2026, they’ll likely have a governing trifecta for the first time since 1993.
Wisconsin
- Gov: This will likely be State Rep. Francesca Hong (D) facing U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany (R). While WI is a swing state with a centrist mentality, Democrats have been doing everything they can to lose this very winnable race. Hong is a self-described democratic socialist; Tiffany is yet another far-right Trump lackey. Either party could have guaranteed a win with a centrist candidate; both chose otherwise.
- State Senate/House: Both chambers are currently controlled by Republicans. However, updated district maps make both chambers competitive in 2026.
- WEC: There’s currently a ton of drama surrounding the WI Election Commission. I’m trying to pay attention to this soap opera, but it’s beyond the scope of this post. Suffice it to say that the outcome here could be very important in 2028.