Parenthetical Politics

(Political Ramblings from a Little Left of Center)

2026 Elections in Texas

Posted on by admin

In my previous post, I claimed that it was too early to do much analysis regarding the 2026 election.  I lied.  Well, kinda.  The primaries in Texas are just over and, while considerable dust still needs to settle, I think I have enough data to offer early thoughts on some of my own state’s races.

Let’s begin with a given:  Texas is a red state.  That’s just the way it is.  There are more voting Republicans than voting Democrats in residence.  However, as I’ve previously discussed, Texas is nowhere near as red as our ridiculously gerrymandered U.S. House district map would indicate.  Republicans generously account for maybe 56% of regular voters while our district map favors Republicans in 79% of our districts.  Ouch.

As they have in every election cycle this century, the Texas Democratic Party is claiming that they will magically turn things around and sweep the races this year.  They won’t.  It doesn’t help that the organization and leadership of the Texas party somehow makes our national party look competent.

On the other hand, things aren’t all doom and gloom in Texas.  Democrats managed to nominate a very good slate of candidates while Republicans made some extremely problematic choices.  Democrats’ best hope is to win around the edges by:

  • energizing the Democratic base to actually vote,
  • increasing the Democratic percentage of independent voters,
  • increasing the turnout of largely Democratic young voters,
  • winning back some of the Hispanic & Black voters who voted Republican (or didn’t vote) in 2024,
  • convincing good Christian Republicans to withhold their votes from the most morally bankrupt GOP candidates (flagged below with “[666]”).

At the moment, most of the major statewide Texas races just don’t look winnable by Democrats.  Our candidates are actually quite good and will likely perform much better than is generally expected.  Unfortunately, close won’t count.  To list a few of the statewide races where Republicans are favored:

  • Governor:  Gina Hinojosa (D) vs. Greg Abbott (R).
    • Abbott isn’t beatable. That’s unfortunate.
  • Lt. Governor:  Vicki Goodwin (D) vs. Dan Patrick (R).
    • Patrick isn’t beatable.  That’s very unfortunate.
  • Attorney General:  Nathan Johnson (D) vs. Mayes Middleton (R).
    • Middleton will be an absolute disaster but his personal wealth will make him very tough to beat.
  • Railroad Commissioner:  Jon Rosenthal (D) vs. Bo French (R) [666].
    • French is a piece of… work.  He’s an unapologetic bigot who doesn’t know a damn thing about the oil & gas industry – which is regulated in Texas by the Railroad Commission.  While even top GOP officials in Texas (Abbott, Patrick, etc.) have said that he’s dangerous, he still unexpectedly won his primary.  Rosenthal, on the other hand, is a career oil & gas engineer and is known as a kind, thoughtful nerd.  Unfortunately, he’s going to be seriously outspent in the general election and, this being Texas, the bad joke with the (R) after his name is heavily favored.

However, …

    • Democrats actually have a shot here.  In the 2018 mid-term election with Trump in the White House, Beto O’Rourke (D) came within 2.6% of beating Sen. Ted Cruz (R).  Tallerico is a much better candidate than O’Rourke; Paxton is a much worse candidate than Cruz.
    • Tallerico is a smart seminarian, an excellent orator, and a nice guy.  Paxton is a crook, a liar, a philanderer, and a disgusting excuse for a human being.  A vote for Paxton would require a remarkable display of moral flexibility from anyone who considers themselves a Christian.
    • National Republicans have already indicated they might reluctantly have to spend upwards of $250 million to protect the Senate seat – money they could have spent elsewhere if Texas Republicans had instead re-nominated Sen. John Cornyn (R).
    • Tallerico seems to be building a good general election campaign which might simply repeat much of Cornyn’s primary campaign.  Cornyn’s quite accurate negative ads couldn’t compete with Trump’s endorsement of Paxton, but those same ads should resonate quite well with non-Republicans.  Also, Trump’s endorsement could actually bring out additional general election voters for Tallerico.
    • The imminently qualified Eckhardt has at least a chance of beating the corrupt, ultra-right Huffines.  Even Abbott campaigned heavily againsts Huffines in the primary.  Since the Comptroller is essentially the CFO of Texas, Huffines would be quite dangerous to our state’s financial health.

Only a handful of the 38 U.S. House races in Texas look even somewhat competitive under our new map.  Dandy.  Since I don’t yet know where these races rank in the national picture, I’ll simply list them for now:

    • Democrats have a decent chance to retain these two seats, but neither is a slam dunk.
    • While the Republicans seem likely to win these three races at the moment, I’ll be watching to see if any of the Democrats can show traction.
    • Yeah, okay.  Shepard is a long shot.  But I got gerrymandered into this insanely-shaped district and I’ll stand my ground.

I’ll start making a few in-state campaign donations in the near future.  I’ll eventually throw some money to many of the Democrats above — even to those with somewhat dim chances of victory. This is my home, things can change, and miracles do happen.

However, I will personally skew my initial Texas donations to Tallerico – while holding good thoughts, crossing my fingers, clutching my rabbit’s foot, and wishing upon a Lone Star.