With an obvious disclaimer of “it’s early and things will change”, I won’t bury the lede: Yes, Democrats could win the Senate in 2026, but they will need some significant luck to do it.
Here’s a map of the 13 Senate seats that I consider to be even remotely in-play in 2026. The grey states either have no Senate election in 2026 or are so solidly party-locked that I’m not even paying attention.
Here’s a table summary of the 13 races, in decreasing order of a “D” win probability. Democrats need to net four additional Senate seats to take the majority. The “easiest” path would be to win ALL of the Likely D, Lean D, AND Toss-Up races. Democrats would need to replace any losses in those races with Lean R or Likely R wins.
As I said, Democrats are going to need some serious luck.
Several of the above Senate races look like pitches for bad soap operas, complete with tangled plot lines and almost comically evil villains. Here are state-by-state summaries of the unfolding drama.
Minnesota
Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) isn’t running for re-election, thus making her MN Senate seat slightly competitive. While the primaries aren’t until 8/11, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D-MN) currently has a polling lead over Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) for the Democratic nomination. Former sports broadcaster Michelle Tafoya and former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze are competing for the GOP nomination.
Assuming that Flanagan and Craig can avoid destroying each other in the primary, either Democrat should be able to beat either Republican in the general election. However, Democrats can’t completely ignore an open race – even in a Democratic-leaning state. (More worrisome is Craig’s abandonment of her House seat to run for the Senate. Her House district tilts Democratic but will be in-play without her. Wonderful.)
My Take: I’m waiting until both parties pick their nominees before I further evaluate the race.
Georgia
Incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is the lone sitting Democratic Senator in a competitive 2026 race and he’s running an excellent re-election campaign thus far.
Ossoff’s opponent will be Rep. Mike Collins (R-FL). The Republican primary isn’t until 6/16, but Collins has maintained a substantial lead in the primary polls. Trump’s team just recently saw the numbers and endorsed Collins so that Trump can claim credit for his nomination. Collins is just another Trump stooge who has been a regular subject of bipartisan House ethics probes, mostly concerning personal use of congressional funds.
My Take: Democrats need to protect this seat and Ossoff deserves support.
See: Ossoff’s Campaign Website & ActBlue Page.
New Hampshire
Incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) isn’t running, making NH an open, competitive seat. The New Hampshire primaries aren’t until 9/8, but the likely nominees are Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) and former Sen. John Sununu (R-NH). NH is a Democratic-leaning state and Sununu seems to be embracing a president who is increasingly unpopular here. Still, the GOP sees NH as a major pickup opportunity and will flood Sununu’s campaign with cash.
My Take: Pappas could use some help keeping this seat in the Democratic column.
See: Pappas’ Campaign Website & ActBlue Page.
North Carolina
The Trump-forced retirement of Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) made this an open, competitive seat. Popular former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) is the Democratic nominee who will face Republican lobbyist and former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley in November. Qualified vs. Unqualified.
My Take: This is probably the best pickup opportunity for Democrats in 2026.
See: Cooper’s Campaign Website & ActBlue Page.
Alaska
Alaska has unique voting rules that should be a model for how to run all U.S. elections. Every candidate in Alaska runs for a given office in a single primary election. The top four vote-getters in the primary, regardless of party, advance to the general election. The general election is then conducted using a ranked choice format to pick a winner.
We can safely assume that both Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) and Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) will advance to the general election. Although Peltola is running against a sitting Senator in a Republican-leaning state, she’s got a solid chance here. She’s very popular and was the first Alaska Native elected to Congress. Also, since Alaska only has one representative in the U.S. House, her wins there have been statewide.
My Take: Even though the AK primary isn’t until 8/18, Peltola is a lock for making the top four. I also like her chances in the general election.
See: Peltola’s Campaign Website & ActBlue Page.
Ohio
Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is looking to get his old job back. His opponent is incumbent Sen. John Husted (R-OH) – who was appointed to replace now-VP JD Vance. Strangely, that means the challenger has previously won this seat in an election while the incumbent has not. OH definitely leans Republican, but Brown is well-known and popular. Husted has been mostly invisible.
My Take: This is a flippable seat but it won’t be easy in a Republican-leaning state.
See: Brown’s Campaign Website & ActBlue Page.
Maine
This should have been an easy Democratic flip. Incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) isn’t particularly popular. Early plans were for Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) to secure the Democratic nomination and coast to victory. But upstart candidate Graham Platner – a veteran turned oyster farmer – became a progressive darling, received a ton of endorsements and money, and won the Democratic nod. Dandy. Except, …
Platner’s past is becoming more problematic by the minute. The scandals have been non-stop – from a Nazi-esqe tattoo, to abhorrent past comments on rape, to infidelity. Worse, Platner’s aggressively defensive handling of the scandals would seem to be remarkably ill-advised. However, despite the scandals, Platner appears to be holding onto a substantial polling lead over Collins. Perhaps ME voters appreciate Platner’s anti-establishment vibe. Or perhaps they’re just so fed up with Collins that they simply don’t care.
My Take: This is an important flip target for Democrats and Collins has not been good for ME or for the country. ME Democrats seems to be happy with their candidate of choice, so I’m currently sitting this one out.
Michigan
Incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) is retiring, making this a competitive, open race. The MI primaries aren’t until 8/4, but former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) is running unopposed for the Republican nomination – giving him a head-start in the general election.
Democrats, of course, are doing their very best to lose a very winnable race. Three decent Democratic candidates – Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and former public health official Abdul El-Sayed – are busy beating up on each other with competing endorsements from major party players. MI Democrats seem to be more worried about ideological nuances in August than about winning in November. As a result, a whole lot of money is being spent by Democrats against other Democrats in a must-win state. Rogers couldn’t be happier.
My Take: I’m on pause here. Once MI Democrats figure out what they’re doing, I’ll re-evaluate the race.
Nebraska
Here’s a fun one.
Incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE) is running for re-election in a very red state. What should have been a GOP gimme became a competitive race with the candidacy of independent Dan Osborn – a Navy vet & mechanic – who is running an impressive outsider campaign.
NE Democrats rightly determined that (a) they had no chance of winning this election and (b) an independent would be a much better alternative than a Trump sycophant. Thus, Democrats initially chose not to run any candidate at all and instead threw their support behind Osborn.
NE Republicans, however, decided to run their own stealth candidate in the Democratic primary whose sole purpose would be to siphon votes from Osborn in the general election. Democrats then quickly regrouped to run a candidate – Cindy Burbank – who simply pledged to drop out if she won.
Burbank indeed won the Democratic primary and, as promised, is trying to drop out of the general election. However, GOP leaders in NE are now refusing to remove Burbank’s name from the general election ballot – again in a brazen attempt to siphon enough votes from Osborn to guarantee a Ricketts plurality win.
This will end up in NE courts run by GOP judges and we all know how that will turn out. We can only hope that enough voters in NE show their discomfort with dirty politics. I’m not holding my breath.
My Take: I’ll be donating against the NE GOP … which means I’ll be donating to the long-shot Osborn campaign.
See: Osborn’s Campaign Website & ActBlue Page.
Texas
I’ve already weighed in on the race between Rep. James Talarico (D-TX) and AG Ken Paxton (R-TX) in my home state. With no hint of hyperbole, this is a choice of good vs. evil. It’s as simple as that. Paxton is beyond corrupt and Texas can do better. In fact, if this race was happening anywhere but in Texas, it would be considerably higher on my list. Remember back in 2017 when Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) won his seat over Republican Roy Moore? Moore’s disgusting behavior was just too much for voters in Alabama. Will Texas really lower the decency bar below deep-crimson ALABAMA?
My Take: While this will be an uphill battle, of course I’m contributing to Talarico’s campaign.
See: Talarico’s Campaign Website & ActBlue Page.
Iowa
Incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) isn’t running for re-election. The Republican nominee is Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) – an ambitious, rising star in Republican politics. The Democratic nominee is State Rep. Josh Turek (R-IA). Turek is a good campaigner with an inspiring backstory. Born with spina bifida, he won two gold medals in the Paralympics and became the first disabled member of the IA legislature. While unpopular Trump administration policies have made IA slightly more competitive for Democrats, it remains a very red state.
My Take: I like Turek, but IA may be a bridge too far in 2026. I’ll keep watching, though.
Florida
This is a special election to fill the remainder of the term that Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) won in 2022. Former FL AG Ashley Moody was appointed to serve temporarily as Senator (after Rubio became Secretary of State) and she has not been good for FL. While the primaries aren’t until 8/18, Moody will be the GOP nominee.
Democrats will choose between Lt. Col. (Ret) Alex Vindman and State Rep. Angela Nixon. Vindman, best known as the whistleblower in the 2019 Trump–Ukraine scandal, appears to be the favorite to advance to the general election.
Conducting a statewide campaign in this very red state with its complex media market would be challeging for even a seasoned Democratic politician. Vindman has never run for any office in any election. While I’d love to see Vindman win, I just don’t see it happening at the moment.
My Take: After the primary, I’ll re-evaluate the race. For now, I’m on pause.
Montana
Incumbent Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) announced at the very last moment that he wasn’t running for re-election in 2026. He literally waited until minutes before the filing deadline before he withdrew, followed immediately by his hand-picked candidate – U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme – submitting the paperwork to take Daines’ place in the Republican primary. That shady sequence pissed off a lot of MT Republicans who didn’t appreciate having any candidate forced upon them. Democrats would have been in a decent position to flip the seat… except for the fact that, as Democrats, they are inherently adept a foot-shooting.
The Democrats nominated Lt. Col. (Ret) Alani Bankhead. She’s a good candidate. However, former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar is also running as a well-funded independent with significant Democratic endorsements. He’s also a good candidate. While both agree that Alme is a horrible choice, they could possibly split a majority of MT votes in the general election and give Alme a plurality win. Both Bankhead and Bodnar want the other to drop out. We’ll see.
My Take: I currently consider MT to be a lost cause unless Bankhead or Bodnar drop out. Even then, it’d still be very difficult for either to beat Alme. I’ll keep watching to see if anything changes.