I was worried about this.
As I noted in a prior post, Democrats don’t have spectacular people in line to lead their new majorities in either the Senate or the House. Schumer and Jeffries are the bran flakes and shredded wheat of politics: neither is bad for you; both are prosaically boring. Neither Schumer nor Jeffries will ever be mentioned in historical conversations along with Lyndon Johnson and Nancy Pelosi (my picks for most the effective Senate Majority Leader and Speaker of the House).
While the current Democratic leaders do have decent understandings of the underlying political quagmires in Washington, their sufficient mastery of the playing field doesn’t offset the mediocre skills with which they actually play the game. Neither has the gifts to deliver a good speech much less an inspiring one. Neither is fast on their feet in interviews. Neither has a clue how to be funny.
None of that is lost on incoming Democrats. Recent news indicates that major leadership battles are brewing and Democrats are publicly taking sides. That’s just not good at all.
Democrats CANNOT begin their control of Congress by beating each other up. Public-facing leadership battles need to be avoided at all costs. When House Republicans couldn’t get their act together to select a Speaker, Democrats couldn’t stop laughing at them. Did they learn nothing from that circus?
In a perfect world, my own personal preference for Senate Majority Leader would be Elizabeth Warren – she understands the politics, she’s extremely smart, she does quite well on camera, and her law professor persona could calmly leave Trump crying into his Diet Coke. That said, a less aggressive change would move Warren into another top leadership role with the understanding that she’s the preferred face of Democrats in the Senate.
Note, however, that Schumer only needs 50% of his caucus to support his leadership bid. That’s not a particularly high bar and he is very likely to prevail if any challenge occurs. Democrats need to seriously consider if that battle is worth fighting.
Democrats need to be even more careful regarding leadership in the House. Jeffries is on track to become the first black Speaker of the House. If he loses that position, a major Democratic constituency would be very pissed off before Congress is even unpacked. It’s just not a good look.
In the House, the Speaker is chosen by a majority of the WHOLE chamber – not just Democrats. Hence, Jeffies would need about 85% of his caucus to prevail if any challenge occurs. That’s a much higher bar than Schumer’s but still easily reachable. Again, Democrats need to decide if this is a battle worth fighting – particularly since there is no obvious candidate who would command more support than Jeffries.
My suggestion would be for Democrats to take a deep breath, accept the internal status quo for now, and move on to the stuff that Americans actually care about. Elect Schumer as Senate Majority Leader and Jeffries as Speaker of the House. Both can efficiently handle the day-to-day crap. In private caucus meetings, Democrats can separately select strong, empowered leadership teams around both of them that are representative of the party’s various factions with younger blood and better communication skills.
Such behind-the-scenes deals would avoid (or at least delay) public leadership conflicts, let everyone save face, and put Democrats in a good position to actually lead.
As I’ve said before, Democrats simply can’t afford to get cocky. They can find sane leadership solutions if they just step back and think about things before giving a soundbite to the nearest microphone.