Two months until Election Day!
Below are quick updates regarding the federal elections that I’ve previously examined.
U.S. Senate Races
Here’s my current summary of 12 competitive Senate races, in decreasing order of a Democratic win probability:
And a few notes:
- I see no reason yet to reorder or reclassify the first seven races on my previous list. The selection of Flanagan in MN is solid. The replacement of Platner by Jackson didn’t move the needle in ME … but it at least stopped a (D) slide.
- I moved TX up to the #8 spot and reclassified it from Lean R to Toss Up. Talerico is doing well. But WTF is up with Jasmine Crockett? She lost the Democratic primary to Talarico and is now making rounds of interview claiming that Talarico “isn’t doing enough” to energize Black voters. Seems she could be helping out rather than spreading her petty sour grapes across the state. I thought Crockett had a bright future in Democratic politics. Now, at least in my book, she’s yesterday’s toast.
- In MI, El-Sayed was simply not the best (D) choice to win the general election. <sigh> This race dropped a couple of spots, but it remains a Toss Up. Barely.
- I left IA & NE in the Lean R category but both races continue to show promise in red states.
- KS is a new Likely R entry. A Hamilton win is a reach, but the fact that he’s doing as well as he is IN KANSAS makes the race worth watching.
- FL & MT fell off my list completely. FL Democrats nominated someone who will lose badly in November. MT has two non-R candidates who will split that vote and hand the seat to the Republican. I kinda thought the goal was to win, but I hope Democrats in these states enjoy their “moral” victories.
- Democrats still need to net four additional seats to squeak out a Senate majority. That’s 8 of the 12 races above.
U.S. House Races
Here’s my current summary of 36 competitive House races, colored by the party now holding the seat:
And a couple of notes:
- I’d intuitively expected movement in the House races, but my new analysis simply made one addition to my previous list. While I’m seeing several races that have tilted toward the Democrat, none have moved enough to justify changing their classifications at this point.
- The lone addition? OH-09 moved from a Safe R seat to a Toss Up. Max Miller (R) refused Republican calls to drop out of the primary due to extremely damning domestic abuse allegations. He managed to win his primary but is quite vulnerable in the general election – even in this very red district. Better still, senior Republicans are now having to voice their support for him. Several Democratic campaign ads should now write themselves.
- Democrats still need to win 20 of the 36 races above to reach the 218 necessary to barely gain control of the House.