I got tired of waiting for the Senate race results out of Arizona & Nevada.  (I care about the Governor and Secretary of State races in those swing states as well… but, for now, I’m mostly interested in control of the Senate.)  So, I took a deep dive into at the election results thus far.  Of course, by the time you’re reading this, more actual results may be reported making this post useless… and perhaps even wrong.  However, I did the work so I thought I’d share.

Arizona

In Arizona, with an estimated 80% of the vote counted, Mark Kelly (D) leads Blake Masters (R):  1,059,387 votes (51.7%) to 944,350 votes (46.1%).  (There’s a third-party candidate currently pulling about 2.1% of the vote.  Unlike in Georgia, Arizona has no run-off and the candidate with the most votes wins.  We can thus safely concentrate only on Kelly and Masters.)

On the surface, with 20% of the vote count outstanding, it seems reasonable to assume that anything can happen.  And, yes, anything CAN happen and Masters could still win. But is it likely?

The county-by-county results, published on the Arizona elections website, tells us how each each of the 16 counties has voted thus far and how many ballots are estimated to still be outstanding.

Unsurprisingly, the most populous counties have the most outstanding ballots.  Maricopa County (including Phoenix) and Pima County (including Tucson) together account for 76% of Arizona’s voters and 84% of the outstanding ballots.  Both counties tend to vote Democratic and, in this election, are currently favoring Kelly by 53% and 62%, respectively.

Assuming that the remaining ballots in each county follow the same relative split as the ballots already counted, Kelly will end up with 52.3% of the total vote to Masters’ 45.6%.  While it is certainly possible that Masters outperforms with the ballots yet to be counted, he would have to do 31% better than he has thus far… with most of that massive over-performance occurring in Democratic strongholds.

Yeah.  That ain’t happening.  Kelly will keep his Senate seat.

Nevada

In Nevada, with an estimated 88% of the vote counted, Adam Laxalt (R) leads Catherine Cortez Masto (D):  450,534 votes (49%) to 441,546 votes (48%).  (There are third-party candidates currently pulling about 2.6% of the vote.  As in Nevada, the candidate with the most votes wins so we can safely concentrate only Cortez Masto and Laxalt.)

On the surface, a 1% margin looks pretty close.  Again looking county-by-county, we see that the most populous counties have the most outstanding ballots.  Clark County (including Las Vegas) and Washoe County (including Reno) together account for 86% of Nevada’s voters and 84% of the outstanding ballots.  Both counties tend to vote Democratic and, in this election, both are currently favoring Cortez Masto.

And here’s where the similarities to Arizona end.

Cortez Masto’s margins in Clark and Washoe Counties are paper thin and Laxalt’s margins everywhere else are huge.

Assuming that the remaining ballots in each county follow the same relative split as the ballots already counted, Laxalt will end up with 49% of the total vote to Cortez Masto’s 48% – exactly where the percentages are now.  While it is certainly possible that Cortez Masto outperforms with the ballots yet to be counted, she would have to do 10% better than she has thus far to pull out a win.

That’s not impossible, but it’s improbable.  Cortez Masto will likely lose her Senate seat.

Georgia

So, once again, we’ll be focused on Georgia to see which party controls the Senate.  With Warnock pulling 35K more votes than Walker, the initial edge goes to the Democrat.  However, I need to do some work here before I post anything.

I’ll weigh in further on the election results when things are a little more finalized.  For now, I’ll simply note a general state of amusement.

I’m amused by all of the election “experts” busily spinning their predictions in light of actual results.  Many are now actually claiming that they were right all along… within their margin-of-error.  Wow.  If their acceptable margins-of-error are in double digits, I’d love to invite them to my next poker game.  The fact is that almost everyone was wrong.  Republican predictions were wrong.  Democratic predictions were wrong.  Independent predictions were wrong.

I’m amused by the congratulatory responses that I’ve received pointing out the overall accuracy of my own predictions.  While I’ll graciously accept that my models turned out to be pretty good, I really can’t take credit for the science of predictive data analytics.  While I’ve never been shy about sharing my opinions on this blog, my election analyses weren’t based on opinions.  They were based on data.  I could well have made errors selecting or modeling that data (and, in a few cases, I did), but the data was the data.

I’m amused by the talking heads who want everyone to believe that political prognostication is a black art.  It’s not.  It’s a math-heavy science.  My own very basic models used data that was easily available to anyone.  A ton of other great data was out there but was, unfortunately, well beyond what my simple models could consume.  You’d think that professional political analysts, with massive resources behind them, could do a much better job using complex models fed by the troves of available data.  But no.  Many of them just chose to blindly trust the consensus of other purported experts and/or chose to blindly ignore data that didn’t match their opinions and/or chose to blindly accept data that was obviously flawed.  A very common error was the uncanny overuse of “polls” that were transparently funded by Republican campaigns and were conducted using truly laughable techniques… assuming they weren’t just created out of thin air.  The truly independent polls, conducted using sane methodologies, were actually pretty accurate this cycle.  The data folks behind these non-partisan polls learned from past mistakes and corrected for them.  These good polls simply got buried by an avalanche of recycled crap.

I’m finally amused by my readers who think that I’m out celebrating the 2022 election results.  Really?

• Although House Democrats managed to not lose as many seats as was generally expected, it looks like they’ll still lose control of the chamber.  With a very thin majority, Republicans will have a tough time actually governing.  However, the GOP will control the House agenda and the committees.  The prospect of two years with constant votes to impeach Biden for breathing and constant Congressional hearings over partisan minutiae is not exactly a cause for celebration.
• New York Democrats managed to screw up their redistricting efforts so badly that Republicans won many more House seats than they should have.  That quite possibly cost Democrats the chamber.  The continued incompetence of the Democratic Party is not exactly a cause for celebration.
• At best, Senate Democrats will gain one seat.  At worst, Senate Republicans will gain two seats.  More likely, Senate control will once again come down to a nail-biter in Georgia.  All of this and one of the best scenarios that Democrats can hope for is to end up back where we started?  That’s not exactly a cause for celebration.
• Although many of the 2020-election-denying idiots on the 2022 ballot lost their elections, some 200 of them actually managed to win.  The fact that any American citizen voted for any of them is not exactly a cause for celebration.
• Many voters across the country did choose sanity over chaos.  However, the fact that American Democracy managed to clear such a low bar is not exactly a cause for celebration.
• Florida and Ohio have shifted even further to the right than they were before.  It wasn’t that long ago that both were swing states.  The loss of those big chunks of Electoral Votes is not exactly a cause for celebration.
• I live in Texas and our political landscape is unchanged.  That’s not exactly a cause for celebration.

Okay, I’m done.  I’m taking my amusement to a bar.

Well, today is the day.  While it may sound over-wrought, I truly believe that Democracy itself is on the ballot.  There are so many 2020 election-deniers on the GOP ticket that this election’s primary issue is simple respect for the American experiment.

I’ll make one last comment on the status of the races…

While I stand by my data-driven predictive models, the data I didn’t have was any actual 2022 voter information.  While we obviously can’t count votes quite yet, what we CAN now do is model the early voting data.  Now, sure, no one knows how any given early voter voted.  However, other voter data is public information.  That data not only tells us how many people voted early, it can tell us exactly who voted and where they voted.  That data can then be modeled against previous individual voting histories and patterns (using public, state-specific information).  As an end-result, the enhanced early voting data can give us a remarkably accurate picture, in the aggregate, of how the parties are doing in comparison to each other and in comparison to past early voting results.  While such an analysis is WELL beyond the scope of this blog, there’s a site called TargetEarly that does a really excellent job of collecting and presenting this data.

I played with this data for quite a while.  Of course I did.  However, for those of you not so inclined, here’s just a few of my take-aways:

• Things don’t look nearly as bleak for Democrats as most people think.
• Nationally, Democrats are beating Republicans in early voting.
• Nationally, Democrats are beating Republicans in early voting with larger margins than the last mid-term elections in 2018.
• Democrats are beating Republicans in early voting in the Senate battleground states.
• Younger voters are turning out for Democrats in considerably larger numbers than expected.

Since election day voting will likely favor Republicans, I have no clue whatsoever if the above early trends will hold.

Am I predicting a Democratic wave?  Nope.  I’m not even predicting a Democratic win.  There are way too many variables to make any definitive predictions.  I’m only saying that the narrative being pushed in the media that the GOP has this election in the bag is totally bogus.  Kudos to Republican strategists for pulling that off, though.

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I’ve also been asked how I’ll be following the election results and my standard answer has been “Holding a bottle of good bourbon.”  I’m sticking with that but will expand on it just a bit…

• Each state’s poll closing times and vote counting methodologies are unique.  Here’s a decent state-by-state guide that I’ll use (although I’ll use my own election models, thank you very much).
• There will be tons of disinformation being constantly pushed out across the board today.  My own personal strategy will be to look at the raw state-by-state results in the races that I’m watching.  I’ll likely listen to a few of the data-geek reporters out there and will try to ignore all of the other talking heads.  In other words, I may pay attention to what some of the better play-by-play analysts are saying while completely tuning out the color commentators.  If I could find the election day equivalent of the ManningCast, now THAT I would watch.
• Exit polls suck.  I’ll be ignoring them.  The media will be pumping these out by the half-hour well before the polls close in attempts to fill dead-air time.  These exit polls will show that people care about the economy and pundit after pundit will be immediately screaming how bad that is for Democrats.  What crap.  Of course people care about the economy.  Is that the only thing that matters to them?  No.  Is there any real data that shows voters believe either party is better at managing the economy?  No.  The data shows that voters think neither party can control the economy.  The data’s not wrong.
• As in 2020, the reporting of election results will vary greatly from state to state.  Some states will report early votes first; many states will report election day votes first.  I’m going to try not to over-react either way.  If I decide to start predicting a state’s final results before all the votes are in, I’ll only consider those counties that have reported 100% of their votes… and then only compare those county’s results with how that county voted in 2018 and 2020.
• There is nothing that is certain about today.  Well, okay there’s one thing.  There are states where local laws strangely don’t allow early ballots to even begin to be counted until after the polls close (e.g. PA).  If the GOP candidates lead before any early votes are considered, I absolutely guarantee that Republicans will prematurely declare victory.  They will immediately claim fraud if the early votes continue to be counted.  That’s the playbook.  They’ll declare victories all over the place separate from any reality.
• Not a whole lot will be decided today.  There will be recounts.  There will be recounts of recounts.  There will be run-off elections. There will be court filings.  There will be at least some election-related violence… ‘cause that’s the world we live in now.

Buckle up.

While it’s way too late now, I’ve been wanting to publish a list of the best mid-term Democratic campaign ads.  Here’s the thing, though:  It’s a very, very short list.  And, frankly, the GOP’s ads are even worse.  The ad agencies hired by both parties have mostly cranked out unremarkable pablum that I stopped watching well before the ads ended.  There have been very few ads that were memorable or informative or on-point … and even fewer that were all three.

I’m thus reduced to listing the four arenas where I would have focused my attention if had been running the Democratic campaigns – while providing some representative ads that I think hit the mark.  Some are (or easily could have been) generic ads that could have been run for multiple campaigns in different markets.

Respect for Democracy

I don’t know how to make people understand just how important it is that all candidates across the political spectrum respect election results.  I’m fine with recounts.  I’m fine with legal action in the courts, if appropriate.  However, there’s a point where candidates have to accept a loss.  The fact that the vast majority of Republican candidates this cycle are still 2020 election-deniers should scare the shit out of everyone.  While I realize that civics lessons don’t often make for great campaign ads, certainly some brilliant Mad Man or Woman can crack that code.  In the meantime, the best I have is this ad from the Republican Accountability Project:

• Listen to Liz

Character

While positive ads about a given Democratic candidate are nice, Democrats should have stopped being nice long ago.  I’ve yet to see truly hard-hitting ads questioning the insanely flawed characters of many of their opponents.  For example, where were the ads targeting Hershel Walker’s blatant hypocrisy with respect to women’s rights, his lack of any relevant experience, or his outright stupidity?  Where were the ads targeting Mehmet Oz’s carpetbagger status, his dog-killing experiments, and the snake-oil salesman career that made him rich?

Sure, I saw some ads that attempted to address some of these topics.  They just weren’t very good.  By necessity, these type of ads need to specific to a campaign and their tone can be quite tough to get right.  Democrats can’t come off as assholes, but they do need to get their points across.  For these types of ads, a little humor goes a long way and often helps to give the ad a free online audience bump.

Here’s a decent ad for Catherine Cortez Masto (and against Adam Laxalt) which was also a pretty good use of a celebrity endorsement:

• Jimmy Kimmel Endorsement

The Economy

Democrats shouldn’t have just run away from this topic and needed to talk more about their wins.  Unemployment is at record lows.  Democrats passed a massive infrastructure bill.  They implemented a tax credit that took child poverty to historic lows.  They made good on their promise to allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices.

Republicans have been quite vague about their economic plans but the plans they have touted are massively unpopular.  They voted against capping the price of insulin and they’ve floated numerous plans to cut and/or privatize Medicare and Social Security.

Of course, Democrats need to acknowledge rising costs.  However, they also need to remind voters that pure corporate greed and out-of-control profiteering is a major factor with respect to inflation.  Does anyone truly believe that Republicans are going to reign in big business?  Please.  Here’s an example of a decent economic ad:

• GOP = Gouging Our Prices

Women’s Rights

This issue needed to be correctly framed and the Democratic MAGA (Mothers Against Greg Abbott) did a pretty good job in Texas of producing ads that stressed massive government overreach with respect to women’s rights.  Here are two examples:

• Whose Choice
• Always and Forever

A serious note to my Republican subscribers:  I sincerely appreciate the fact that you’re willing to consider the opinions of someone who is often in an opposite political camp.  However, I have a request:  PLEASE do your 2022 research and make sure you can defend the candidates you choose to support.

To be blunt, the vast majority of your 2022 nominees across the board have explicitly stated that the 2020 election was stolen despite a total lack of any evidence.  They have made it abundantly clear that they will use whatever power they can grab now to declare Republican victories in future elections, regardless of the will of the voters.

I don’t understand how anyone of any political persuasion can support any candidate who cannot accept valid election results.  That is the cornerstone of American democracy.  And please don’t mention Hillary Clinton to me.  I don’t understand the reference.  She conceded the 2016 election the very next day.  It’s one thing to be unhappy about election results.  I’ve certainly had my fair share of unhappiness.  But with VERY few exceptions, Democratic candidates accept their election loses.  Republican candidates used to do so as well.  But they don’t any more.

In Arizona, Kari Lake (the GOP nominee for Governor), Mark Finchem (the GOP nominee for Secretary of State), and Blake Masters (the GOP nominee for Senate) are all 2020 election-deniers and have all explicitly said that they will only support the results of their 2022 elections if they agree with them.  That triple threat to democracy is sadly being repeated in several states.

In Michigan, Tudor Dixon (the GOP nominee for Governor) is a 2020 election-denier and has expressed unqualified support for the participants in the Capitol riot.  Kristina Karamo (the GOP nominee for Secretary of State) has stated that the 2020 election in MI was the result of “corrupt authoritarians” despite 250 different, independent audits that verified the results.

Tim Michels, the Wisconsin GOP nominee for Governor, just recently said that “Republicans will never lose another election in Wisconsin after I’m elected governor.”  While he actually said the quiet part out loud, his is by no means an isolated stance.

Ken Paxton (up for re-election as Texas’ Attorney General) even stepped out of his own state to file lawsuits on behalf of Texas against Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin challenging their 2020 election results.

All of these are blatantly undemocratic positions.  And I could, unfortunately, easily go on.  And on.  And on.

We can have policy differences.  I seriously welcome these discussions, I desperately want to find a common middle ground, and I’m reluctantly willing to agree to disagree where our political perspectives diverge too far for compromise.  I have very strong opinions but I claim no divine knowledge of what is “right”.  I can accept the will of the majority in our American experiment while I work to change that majority opinion.  I expect the same from others.

If you can support attacks on democracy itself, you’re going to have to defend that position to me.

Yeah, yeah.  I’ve been absent here.  While my daily intentions have been to post something, reality has intervened on a regular basis.  C’est la vie.

Anyway, with early voting for the mid-terms already in-progress, I felt the need to revisit the critical 2022 races.  Unfortunately, I had to dig a tad deeper than I’d expected.

The news has certainly been rife with apocalyptic declarations for Democrats everywhere. Polls are showing a steep decline in Democratic support. Pundits across the political spectrum are predicting a bloody red wave.  Democratic campaigns are sending out hourly emails that range from pride-free groveling to pre-emptive obituaries.  (I’m on WAY too many campaign email lists.)

While I more-than-half expected my fresh analysis to line up with these overwhelming sentiments, it turns out that the skeptical little voice in my head was onto something.

The news appears to be nothing more than a giant echo chamber, largely devoid of independent analysis.  Polls that have shown a massive Republican surge in recent weeks are largely Republican-funded.  Pundits are incented to push a tight race narrative to increase their viewership / subscriber counts.  Democratic campaigns seem to insanely believe that they’ll actually increase donations by repeatedly telling voters that they’re going to lose – which can quickly become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

WTF.

To be sure, even my data-driven methodology shows that Democrats have lost ground and, predictably, many races have tightened up as we approach Election Day.  While Democrats are in nothing resembling a commanding position, they’re only guaranteed to lose across the board if they continue to close out their campaigns like they’ve already lost their elections.  At this point, voters have made their choices.  There are no more swing voters.  Voters who haven’t yet picked a side simply aren’t likely to vote at all.  Elections will now be won or lost based solely on turnout and voters will have little motivation to cast ballots in races where the candidate appears to have given up.

Here are the high-level take-aways from my own analyses:

U.S. House

Nothing has really changed here since I first weighed in on 2022.  Republicans will take control of the House.  While I don’t see as massive of a “red wave” as others, the GOP will end up with a solid majority in this chamber.

U.S. Senate

Even the election analysts that I respect (e.g. 538, Cook, Sabato) seem to overweight “expert” opinions and non-independent polls (to varying degrees) in their evaluations of Senate races.  I’ll readily admit that my model was flawed if proven otherwise, but I still think Democrats have a very slight advantage here.  To retain control of the Senate, Democrats need to win the races where my analysis says they currently have a slight edge PLUS win one of three true toss-up races or one of two races where Republicans have a slight edge.

State Legislatures

While I still don’t have the time, data, or desire to do a deep dive into control of state legislatures, it nevertheless remains an important consideration.  Republican legislators in numerous swings states have been very public in their desires to appoint their own slate of Presidential Electors in 2024 regardless of who wins the popular vote in their respective states.  (And, before someone accuses me of being too partisan, there has been no similar talk from Democrats.  None.)  The Supreme Court even seems poised to bless this blatantly undemocratic power play.  In any case, my rough guess at the moment is that this cycle will see no major flips in the control of state legislatures for either party.

Governors

This is definitely a mixed bag but not necessarily the absolute disaster we’re being led to believe.  Still, there are way too many toss-up Governor races in 2024 swing states for comfort (AZ, WI, NV).  And there are another two races in 2024 swing states where Democrats have only a slight edge (MN, MI).  As with the state legislatures, I’m very nervous about Republican Governors trying to declare a GOP presidential victory in their states even if Democrats win the popular vote.  With very few exceptions, the GOP candidates for Governor are 2020 election deniers.

Secretaries of State

Despite many attempts to educate the public as to how these historically obscure offices can be used to single-handedly throw an election to a preferred party, these races are still met with significant voter apathy.  The vast majority of the GOP candidates for these positions are 2020 election deniers – which doesn’t bode at all well for democracy.  Unfortunately, since there isn’t a lot of good data readily available to handicap these races, I’ll simply list a few of the races that I’m following.

PLEASE PEOPLE:  If you haven’t already voted early, do so now.  While I understand the civic high that one can get by voting on Election Day, shit happens.  Vote early and give yourself a backup plan to make sure your voice is heard.

Since I last weighed in, Democrats have slightly increased their chances of maintaining their paper-thin Senate majority in November.  While it’s still too early to make definitive predictions, it is nice to see that a lot of election “experts” are catching up to my point of view and have at least stopped writing Democratic obituaries.

** trying not to break my arm while patting myself on the back **

Here’s my updated take on the ten competitive Senate races:

(Click for a larger image; use the back button to return.)

Republicans have nominated (or are close to nominating) the most extreme candidates they possibly could (Masters in AZ, Oz in PA, Buldoc in NH) and/or have nominated inexperienced candidates who are running clueless campaigns (Oz in PA, Walker in GA, Vance in OH).  I hate to agree with Mitch McConnell, but “candidate quality” matters.  It also hasn’t helped that Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) has been a laughably incompetent chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.  In short, Republicans had a very good chance to lock up the Senate and they blew it.  Can’t say I didn’t see that coming.

However, before Democrats start celebrating….

• A whole lot can happen between now and November.  Democrats need to keep working each and every race and pray that the economy doesn’t take a nose dive right before the elections.
• Democrats need to take full advantage of this opportunity to slightly expand their majority now since 2024 won’t be at all pretty.  By my count, a whopping 10 Senate Democrats running for re-election in 2024 will be facing somewhere between Lean R and Toss-Up environments.  On the other side, ZERO Republican Senators up for re-election in 2024 will be facing anything worse than Lean R environments.  In other words, Democrats are very likely to see a net loss of at least a few seats in 2024.  Even if they over-perform this year, maintaining a majority in 2024 might be quite difficult.

See the contribution links at the end of my previous Senate post if you feel like pitching in.