COVID-19 Analysis IV

Here’s an update to my COVID-19 analytics, now reflecting 6/20/2020 data.  This snapshot begins to show the impact of the lifting of restrictions in the U.S.  See below for commentary and some explanatory notes.  Click on any table to display a larger version; hit the back button to return here.

Selected Countries by % of Cases

Selected States by % of Cases

Selected Metropolitan Areas by % of Cases

Selected Metropolitan Areas by Acceleration Rate

Commentary

  • The U.S. now leads the world in COVID-19 cases per capita.  Go team!
  • Iceland still leads the world in COVID-19 responses.  They’ve tested 20% of their population and have a very low fatality rate of 1%.
  • U.S. testing has improved, but it’s still nothing to celebrate.  On a per capita basis, we’re still lagging behind numerous other countries.
  • As expected, many U.S. metropolitan areas are now trending in the wrong direction.  Increased testing is identifying more cases, but that doesn’t nearly account for the spikes.  The relaxation of restrictions has been largely unsuccessful.  This is not a second wave; it’s a resurgence of the first wave.
  • While some of the original U.S. hotspots (NYC, New Orleans, Detroit) still have the highest percentages of cases at the moment, their acceleration rates are significantly lower than some new hotspots (Houston, Dallas, Las Vegas, DFW). The problem definitely didn’t go away.  It just moved.
  • My home state of Texas yet again looks at first glance like it’s doing well.  Of the states I currently track, we have the least number of reported cases per capita.  However, we still rank near the bottom in testing and, more importantly, there are rising rates of cases in major Texas metropolitan areas:  15% in DFW, 21% in Houston, and 23% in Austin.
  • Some of my “Estimated Peak” dates are now unknown.  When acceleration rates are rising, there is no end in sight.  Note again that any constant rate of acceleration is bad.  Even a low rate of acceleration still means that the problem is getting worse every single week.
  • I started tracking Tulsa (the site of Trump’s recent rally) and Jacksonville (the site of the Republican convention in August).  Each is already trending in the wrong direction and I suspect their numbers will get worse.
  • I added a simple line chart corresponding to the weekly case rate increase table for the metropolitan areas that I track.

Approach

  • Most published analytics focus on case counts.  However, case counts are only meaningful in the context of potential case counts.  I thus look at the percentage of cases within a given population center.  Since these percentages are mostly less than 1% (at least for now), I also report cases in terms of an easier to grasp “One of Every N People”.
  • I report deaths as a percentage within a given population center, in terms of  “One of Every N People”, and as a percentage of the reported cases (the fatality rate).
  • I currently follow hard-hit states, 2020 toss-up states, and a few others.
  • I also currently follow several metropolitan areas in the U.S.  Since the virus spreads via close contact, this would seem to be the most useful information.  For these, I add a simple means to track progression.  Within four rolling weeks (to avoid both daily noise and old data), I report the rate of increase in the number of cases.  This is akin to tracking the acceleration of the infection.  Obviously, the goal is to first get the acceleration to zero with a resultant constant rate of infection.  Only then can the area begin to decelerate until the actual number of new cases approaches zero.  Finally, I add an extremely rough linear projection as to when each area could reach an acceleration of zero if everything stays the same (which it won’t).  If the rate of acceleration in increasing, no end date can be calculated.
  • My primary data sources:  New York Times, COVID Tracking Project, Texas DSHS, Worldometer, US Census Bureau.
  • All analytics are only as good as the underlying data and there are numerous reasons to question the validity of some of my datasets.
    • Some entities only report confirmed cases; others report presumed cases.  Some entities (e.g. China) are pretty obviously under-reporting their numbers.
    • Case counts depend on access to testing and that varies wildly from country-to-country, state-to-state, and county-to-county.
    • Reporting on testing itself is even more uneven.  My data source for U.S. test data felt the need to grade each state’s data quality.
    • While I attempt to normalize data from multiple sources, the fact remains that each source dataset is independently generated with its own collection methodology.
  • If asked nicely, I can try to add reporting for other countries, states, and/or metropolitan areas in future posts.

Redefining the Police

As a non-young, middle-class, white male, I hesitated to immediately offer my thoughts on the racially-charged unrest currently sweeping the country.  I am certainly in no position to comprehend the perspectives of any black American.  I am even more incapable of fully understanding how a young, poor, black person views our shared country.

However, as the author of a political blog, it seems somewhat disingenuous (read: chickenshit) to use that has an excuse to avoid weighing in on an issue that will undoubtedly be a major factor in the 2020 elections.

There are valid conversations to be had with respect to numerous symbols of our racial divide – military bases named after Confederate generals, black portrayals in movies and on television, public displays of Confederate statues and flags, protests related to the American flag, commercial brands that invoke racial stereotypes, and many, many more.  While symbols are important and these topics deserve serious discussions, I hope we can also use this moment to focus on the tangible.  I find myself specifically drawn to the sparkpoint of the current protests – the role of the police in modern society.

I don’t for a moment believe that all police officers are racists.  However, the problem is not simply a few bad actors in a few police departments.  Institutionalized racial discrimination is an unfortunate fact of the American police force.  The lethal implications of that discrimination have been made painfully apparent.  Black Americans are 2.5 times more likely to be killed by the police than white Americans and yet the former are 2 times more likely to be unarmed when killed.  The discrimination, however, runs considerably deeper.  Here are just a couple of non-lethal examples:

  • Numerous studies have shown that marijuana usage is generally race-agnostic – people of every race have comparable usage rates.  Cannabis arrests account for almost half of all drug arrests and 90% of those were for possession alone.  While these statistics are an independent issue, black people in the U.S. are 3.6 times more likely than white people to be arrested for marijuana possession.  In Kentucky, black people are 9.4 times more likely to be arrested.  In some predominately white communities, it’s even worse.  In Pickens County, Georgia (north of Atlanta, with a 94% white population), black people are 97.2 times more likely to be arrested.
  • A recent study in North Carolina revealed that black drivers were stopped 2 times as often and searched 4 times as often as white drivers – despite the fact that white drivers were more likely to be found with contraband.  A Stanford University analysis of about 100 million traffic stops nationwide also found that black drivers were more likely to be pulled over than white drivers and additionally found that the disparity was significantly less after dark – when the driver’s skin color was harder to determine.

Other studies tell similar stories.  We have a problem.

I am struck by the political battlelines currently being drawn over numerous competing proposals for police reforms by Democrats and Republicans.  Rather than dive into the details of these proposals, I’ll simply offer my broad perspective:  All of them are little more than band-aids, differing only in the size of the wound they attempt to cover.  None of the proposals do much, if anything, to address the root cause of the injury.

At long last, the problem needs to be addressed by more than meaningless rhetoric and politically expedient calls for minor reforms.

While state and local governments will, in our form of government, have final control over their respective police forces, the federal government can and should provide specific guidelines enforced by withholding funding and/or other legal actions were possible.

Below are three fundamental changes that need to be made.  Unfortunately, these are by no means new ideas.  Versions have been proposed numerous times over the course of decades but there has never been the political will to implement them in the face of entrenched resistance.  I hope that now is the time.

Redefine the Role of the Police

The “Defund the Police” movement isn’t nearly as ominous as it sounds.  While there are numerous definitions, no sane person is proposing that all police departments be immediately shut down.  Few want a real-life version of “The Purge”.  The movie was bad enough.

That said, the solution is also not a simple “reform” of existing police structures and policies.

As a society, we have assigned way too many tasks to our police departments.  They are not only responsible for addressing serious crimes; they are tasked with handling issues related to homelessness, truancy, family disputes, mental health, substance abuse, immigration, traffic control, crowd control, minor drug violations, etc.  If we merely step back for a moment, the insanity of that approach is obvious.  We do need a police function; we don’t need it to be – nor should we expect it to be – an enforcer and arbiter of everything imaginable.  An all-powerful police force is not only an open invitation to institutionalized racial discrimination.  It’s also just a bad idea.

The basic concept of a role redefinition is to redirect a portion of the money currently allocated to police departments to other organizations and programs that are better suited to handle a specific job.  The responsibility would transfer with the money.  This serves two purposes.  First, we’d have specific issues dealt with by people appropriately trained and equipped to handle those issues.  Second, we’d decentralize the raw power that society has forfeited to the police over time.

I’d fully suspect that many police officers would welcome the opportunity to focus.  Few reasonable people want to be responsible for things they aren’t properly trained to handle.

On the other hand, there will undoubtedly be some police departments, individual police officers, and police unions that will be extremely resistant to any changes that diminish their current powers.  In extreme cases, yes, whole departments or agencies may need to be abolished and rebuilt from scratch by the communities they serve.  In those cases, the solution is still not an elimination of the police function; it is a replacement of a dysfunctional department with one that meets the needs of its constituents.

Redefine the Police Officer

We can’t simply change the definition of the police department and claim victory.  We also need to change the job requirements for the people in those departments.

In general, the professional police officer is fairly well compensated for a job that, frankly, comes with pretty minimal requirements.

For example, to become an Austin police officer, candidates must be a U.S. citizen, have a valid driver’s license, meet physical and health requirements, have a clean criminal history, have responsible driving & financial records, and attend a 32-week training academy.  During academy training, they are paid an annual salary of about $50K.  Immediately after graduation, they make about $60K and progress to at least $98K after 16 years on the force.  High ranking officers can make up to $155K.  All ranks can make more if they have college degrees and there are numerous incentive pay options, including overtime pay.  After 23 years, officers can retire with 74% of their salary and that increases to 96% at 30 years.  In addition, the APD has generous health, life, and disability insurance plans.

In all, the above is a pretty decent deal.  I don’t want to turn this post into a career analysis, but I’ll note that a licensed massage therapist is required to have about the same amount of training and that teacher certification requires substantially more training.  Neither comes with the employment package of a police officer.  While I don’t begrudge the police their compensation, I do think that it should necessarily come with a set of very high expectations.

The fundamental requirement must be for a professional police officer to earn and continually pursue the trust of the people they serve.  That trust cannot be conveyed by the mere presence of a badge and a gun.  Numerous other professionals understand that dealing with uncooperative people is an occupational hazard.  Successful massage therapists, teachers, bartenders, Uber drivers, flight attendants, and hotel staff have developed the necessary skills to handle such people without the use of weapons or deadly chokeholds.  It’s really not too much to expect the same from a police officer.  We need more Andy Taylors and less Harry Callahans.

Most importantly, police officers need to be held organizationally accountable against clear rules of engagement.  While such accountability should be swift and sure, it has unfortunately been quite rare.  As just one example of many, Derek Chauvin – the Minneapolis policeman charged with killing George Floyd – had a history of 17 prior misconduct complaints but was disciplined only once. Over the past decade, Minneapolis had over 2600 misconduct complaints filed against individual police officers but only 12 resulted in any punishment at all – the most severe of which was a one-week suspension.

The current implementation of qualified immunity – where police officers are largely exempt from civil lawsuits – also needs to be seriously curtailed.  While the police should perhaps be shielded from nuisance lawsuits, they shouldn’t simply get a pass in civil courts.

Police officers are no less entitled to due process than any other citizen.  They are not, however, entitled to special treatment under the law.  If anything, they should be held to an even higher standard.

Demilitarize the Police

Both political parties have historically shown little resistance to arming police departments with weapons of war – including armored vehicles, weaponized aircraft, grenade launchers, M-16 assault rifles, sniper rifles, combat gear, and tear gas.  A byproduct of giving people hammers is the danger that they start to think of everything as a nail.  Worse, from an outside perspective, a police force that is dressed in full riot gear and armed for combat naturally projects to the community they serve that they’re preparing for battle in a war zone.  While the police in wealthy, white communities remain largely out of sight if not responding to a specific issue, the police in poor, black communities are often seen as an occupying force.  That’s simply not conducive to building an atmosphere of trust.

Except in extreme cases, there is no reason for the police to function as a quasi-military force nor for individual police officers to be as well-armed as a soldier in combat.  In those cases, use of the National Guard should be the first consideration.  While an extremely elite, well-trained police unit might sometimes be appropriate, that’s not what we have.  Entrance into U.S. Military Special Forces is extraordinarily competitive and requires about a year and a half of very intense training with a 70% attrition rate. Members are subject to a military court martial if they fail to strictly follow established rules of engagement.  On the other hand, while anyone with three years on many police forces can apply for a 19-week SWAT training course, even that training isn’t generally required to gain full access to military weapons.

Use of such weapons against American citizens on American soil should be exceptionally rare and should require considerable senior oversight.  Indeed, the use of tear gas on peaceful citizens protesting the death of a man whose last words were “I can’t breathe” is well beyond ironic.  It’s inexcusable.

___

None of these changes will happen overnight.  It just seems like an excellent time to start.

Mask Not For Whom the Bell Tolls…

It tolls for thee.

The twisted John Donne poem is sadly appropriate.  Donne was saying that we’re all interconnected and that anyone’s death is a loss for all of mankind.

So wear a damn mask!

Here are just a few ideas for conversations with people that won’t.

For those that don’t believe masks are necessary:  Scientific evidence is extremely clear that masks significantly slow the spread the airborne COVID-19 virus.  While most masks provide only marginal protection for the wearer, even basic cloth masks are quite effective in reducing the spread of the virus from an infected individual to others.  In other words:  IT’S NOT ABOUT YOU.  Refusing to wear a mask says that you don’t give a shit about anyone other than yourself.  I’d suggest you simply wear a red t-shirt with “Narcissistic Asshole” written in large, white letters … but I’m absolutely sure that you’d misspell at least one of those words.

For those that think they’re virus-free and thus don’t need no stinkin’ mask:  The fact is that 50-80% of people with the COVID-19 virus are asymptomatic but still contagious.  You simply don’t know if you’re infected.  You.  Don’t.  Know.

For those that think requiring people to wear a mask is unconstitutional government overreach:  Get over yourself.  Our Texas Governor is trying to walk a fence that doesn’t exist.  He says he encourages people to wear masks but refuses to allow government enforcement.  That’s like nicely asking the school bully to please stop punching you.  This is a public health issue.  There are legal penalties and fines for taking a dump on the streets of Texas, so why is not wearing a mask any different?  If anything, I’d argue that you generally won’t die from stepping in a pile of poop.

For those that think being mask-free is a political statement:  A recent study did show an unfortunate political divide with 73% of Democrats wearing masks as opposed to 59% of Republicans.  “The 2020 GOP: Now with 14% more idiots!”  Still, a majority of BOTH parties are wearing masks.  There are zero reasons for this to be a party loyalty issue.  If you want to make a political statement, wear a button on your mask.

For those that won’t wear a mask because Trump won’t wear one:  The President of the United States should be setting an example… just not this one.  Indeed, he has even mocked Joe Biden for wearing a mask.  Why on Earth am I even talking to you?  Go away.

COVID-19 Analysis III

Here’s an update to my prior COVID-19 analytics, now reflecting 5/23/2020 data.  This snapshot is largely prior to the free-for-all lifting of restrictions in the U.S.  See below for commentary and some explanatory notes.  Click on any table to display a larger version; hit the back button to return here.

Selected Countries by % of Cases

Selected States by % of Cases

Selected Metropolitan Areas by % of Cases

Selected Metropolitan Areas by Estimated Peak

Commentary

  • The new orders vary greatly from state-to-state so it will be quite interesting to see how things look in a 2-3 weeks.  Since the current numbers show some progress, I suspect the trends will be reversed.  I seriously hope I’m wrong.
  • Despite claims otherwise, the data shows that the overall U.S. response to COVID-19 has been decidedly sub-par.  Of the countries I track, only Spain and Iceland have more reported cases per capita – and those countries lead in testing.  Victory laps are decidedly premature.
  • Iceland has now tested 1 out of every 6 of their residents – far more than anyone else – and they’ve proven that a large number of people with COVID-19 are asymptomatic carriers.  Iceland’s overall success is underscored by a very low fatality rate of 1%.
  • In the U.S., NYC is still the major hotspot with 1 in 42 people testing positive.  Detroit has the worst fatality rate at 12%.
  • My home state of Texas once again looks like it’s doing well… until you look a bit deeper.   Of the states I currently track, we do have the least number of reported cases per capita.  Unfortunately, “reported” would be the key word here.  Our testing is pathetic.  We’ve tested only 2.59% of our population – compared with 4.28% nationwide.  And that national testing percentage is still less than many other countries.  Testing in my home city of Austin is even worse than Texas as a whole with only 1.93% of Austin residents tested.  It is thus likely that neither Austin, nor Texas, nor the United States are doing nearly as well as they think they are.  And yet, most restrictions have just recently been lifted.
  • You may notice that my “Estimated Peak” dates keep moving out.  My simple algorithm assumes that future reductions in the rates of increase are linear… and they clearly are not.  This is not good news.  Until a municipality can get the rate of increase to zero, their problem by definition is only getting worse.  At first glance, New Orleans might appear to have a good handle on COVID-19 since their rate of increase has held steady at 3% for three weeks.  However, what that means is that their problem is getting slowly worse every single week.  Any constant rate of increase is definitely not a solution.

Approach

  • Most published analytics focus on case counts.  However, case counts are only meaningful in the context of potential case counts.  I thus look at the percentage of cases within a given population center.  Since these percentages are mostly less than 1% (at least for now), I also report cases in terms of an easier to grasp “One of Every N People”.
  • I report deaths as a percentage within a given population center, in terms of  “One of Every N People”, and as a percentage of the reported cases (the fatality rate).
  • I currently follow states that are either the hardest hit or that are 2020 toss-up states.  It’s too early to tell how COVID-19 will impact the swing states, but it will definitely be a major issue.
  • I also currently follow several metropolitan areas in the U.S.  Since the virus spreads via close contact, this would seem to be the most useful information.  For these, I add a simple means to track progression.  Within four rolling weeks (to avoid both daily noise and old data), I report the rate of increase in the number of cases.  This is akin to tracking the acceleration of the infection.  Obviously, the goal is to first get the acceleration to zero with a resultant constant rate of infection.  Only then can the area begin to decelerate until the actual number of cases approaches zero.  Finally, I add an extremely rough linear projection as to when each area could reach an acceleration of zero if everything stays the same (which it won’t).
  • There are way too many variables at this point to model any future deceleration.
  • My primary data sources:  New York Times, COVID Tracking Project, Texas DSHS, Worldometer, US Census Bureau.
  • All analytics are only as good as the underlying data and there are numerous reasons to question the validity of some of my datasets.
    • Some entities only report confirmed cases; others report presumed cases.  Some entities (e.g. China) are pretty obviously under-reporting their numbers.
    • Case counts depend on access to testing and that varies wildly from country-to-country, state-to-state, and county-to-county.
    • Reporting on testing itself is even more uneven.  My data source for U.S. test data felt the need to grade each state’s data quality.
    • While I attempt to normalize data from multiple sources, the fact remains that each source dataset is independently generated with its own collection methodology.
  • If asked nicely, I can try to add reporting for other countries, states, and/or metropolitan areas in future posts.

Thoughts from Across the Pond

Ever wonder what foreigners think of Trump?

A “Nate White” apparently posted a response to that question last year on Quora.  While an appropriate Quora profile exists, I can find no direct proof of authorship.  No matter.  The essay has been preserved on the Internet and, regardless of the author, it deserves to be repeatedly shared.  The piece precedes the pandemic but is still, unfortunately, a quite accurate summary of the man.

I only wish I’d written it.

—-

Quora Question:  “Why do some British people not like Donald Trump?”

Nate White’s Reply:

A few things spring to mind. Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem. For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace – all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed. So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.

Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing – not once, ever. I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility – for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman. But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is – his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.

Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers. And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults – he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.

There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It’s all surface. Some Americans might see this as refreshingly upfront. Well, we don’t. We see it as having no inner world, no soul. And in Britain we traditionally side with David, not Goliath. All our heroes are plucky underdogs: Robin Hood, Dick Whittington, Oliver Twist. Trump is neither plucky, nor an underdog. He is the exact opposite of that. He’s not even a spoiled rich-boy, or a greedy fat-cat. He’s more a fat white slug. A Jabba the Hutt of privilege.

And worse, he is that most unforgivable of all things to the British: a bully. That is, except when he is among bullies; then he suddenly transforms into a sniveling sidekick instead. There are unspoken rules to this stuff – the Queensberry rules of basic decency – and he breaks them all. He punches downwards – which a gentleman should, would, could never do – and every blow he aims is below the belt. He particularly likes to kick the vulnerable or voiceless – and he kicks them when they are down.

So the fact that a significant minority – perhaps a third – of Americans look at what he does, listen to what he says, and then think ‘Yeah, he seems like my kind of guy’ is a matter of some confusion and no little distress to British people, given that:

  • Americans are supposed to be nicer than us, and mostly are.
  • You don’t need a particularly keen eye for detail to spot a few flaws in the man.

This last point is what especially confuses and dismays British people, and many other people too; his faults seem pretty bloody hard to miss. After all, it’s impossible to read a single tweet, or hear him speak a sentence or two, without staring deep into the abyss. He turns being artless into an art form; he is a Picasso of pettiness; a Shakespeare of shit. His faults are fractal: even his flaws have flaws, and so on ad infinitum. God knows there have always been stupid people in the world, and plenty of nasty people too. But rarely has stupidity been so nasty, or nastiness so stupid. He makes Nixon look trustworthy and George W look smart. In fact, if Frankenstein decided to make a monster assembled entirely from human flaws – he would make a Trump.

And a remorseful Doctor Frankenstein would clutch out big clumpfuls of hair and scream in anguish: ‘My God… what… have… I… created?’ If being a twat was a TV show, Trump would be the boxed set.

The Politics of COVID-19, Part III

It irritates the hell out of me that I have to keep coming back to this topic.  The latest reason is the Republican argument against providing financial assistance to the states in the next stimulus package.

The pandemic should rightfully be a political issue in the 2020 campaign.  However, politics should be kept to a minimum with respect to our national response to the pandemic.  Americans need help.  If the federal government has a purpose, I’d think this would be it.

Republicans are free to argue against providing budgetary help directly to state and local governments.  I’ll personally note that those budgets fund things like schools, police, and firefighters.  And, since we just spent $2.2 trillion propping up corporations, I’ll contend that also throwing some money at public services isn’t completely out of line.  However, a debate on the merits of the funding is at least valid.

My problem is that Republicans aren’t arguing the merits.  McConnell said that federal aid would be a “blue state bailout” and Trump claimed it’s “not fair to the Republicans, because all the states that need help, they’re run by Democrats in every case.”

Even if those statements were true (spoiler: they aren’t), they would be entirely beside the point.  When disaster strikes one or more states in any form, consideration of their political disposition is simply disgusting.

As to the validity of the statements, here’s just a few quick reminders:

  • The two hardest hit areas are New York and California.  And, yes, both happen to be Democratic states.  However, metropolitan airports in those two states handle 57% of our country’s international flights – the major source of the COVID-19 outbreak in the U.S.  And who is responsible for international travel into the U.S.?  That’s right.  The federal government.  If you break it, you buy it.
  • New York consistently pays the federal government over $35 billion a year more than it gets back.  McConnell’s home state of Kentucky consistently receives over $40 billion a year more from the federal government that it pays in.  So who exactly is “bailing out” whom?
  • Many states controlled by both parties are seeing major budget shortfalls.  By no stretch of the imagination is this a “blue state” problem.
    • The very red state of Georgia (whose Atlanta airport handles 7% of international flights) is projecting a budget shortfall of about $4 billion.
    • The swing state of Florida (whose Miami airport handles 12% of international flights) is looking at a $10 billion budget shortfall.
    • My home (and red) state of Texas (whose DFW and Houston airports handle 11% of international flights) doesn’t yet know how bad we’ll be hit (given our 24-month budget cycle).  However, the concurrent oil & gas slump isn’t going help things and our financial picture won’t be at all pretty.

While the premise of a “blue state bailout” is easily contradicted by the facts, it just isn’t important.  Multiple states need help.  It doesn’t matter if those states are red, blue, or green.  The federal government needs to their damn jobs and stop playing political games.

Talking Trump

A good friend, knowing I’d be thoroughly appalled, sent me a link to buy a talking Trump figurine that excretes a collection of 17 recorded droppings from Trump himself.

“It’s like having the President in the same room with you!”

Thanks, Carol.  I now have a new definition of Hell.

Upon reflection, however, it occurred to me that this is actually a terrific idea – it just uses the wrong quotes!  Our country absolutely needs a version that more accurately reflects the man’s true essence.  Not only could the proceeds fund an entire campaign, it would really get under Trump’s skin.

While there’s a plethora of preposterous possibilities, here’s my suggested set of 17 replacement quotes:

  • “Grab them by the pussy. You can do anything.”
  • “I won’t have time to play golf if I’m elected president.”
  • “He’s not a war hero.  He was a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured.”
  • “I know words.  I know the best words.”
  • “The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.”
  • “If Ivanka weren’t my daughter, perhaps I’d be dating her.”
  • “We have the worst laws.”
  • “And when you’re talking about an atmosphere, oceans are very small. And it blows over and it sails over.”
  • “I will make Mexico pay for that wall. Mark my words.”
  • “I’m speaking with myself, number one, because I have a very good brain.”
  • “I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in one minute, and is there a way you can do something like that by injection inside.”
  • “I know more about ISIS than the generals do.”
  • “My father gave me a small loan of a million dollars.”
  • “Nobody knew health care could be so complicated.”
  • “When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total.”
  • “Anybody that wants a test can get a test.”
  • “No, I don’t take responsibility at all.”

Can somebody please send me the link to THIS product?

Biden’s VP

Joe Biden recently announced the formation of his VP selection committee.  I’m hurt that I wasn’t asked to participate, but I thought I’d add my two cents anyway.

Since Biden already announced that his pick will be a woman, that considerably narrows the field.  I’ve identified thirteen women that, at some point, have been touted as a potential VP selection by either Biden himself or by someone in his inner circle.  While Biden could certainly pick someone not on this list, it’s doubtful.  Trial balloons are always a good idea.

I then defined a model for the analysis based on ten weighted criteria and assigned each candidate a letter grade in each category.  For grading purposes, I split the women into five groups: Governors, Senators, U.S. Representatives, State Representatives, and Influencers.  Some of the grades were assigned based on known facts while other grades were purely my judgement calls.  (Alternative opinions are certainly valid but, hey, it’s my blog.)  From there, it was just math.

I’ll discuss the criteria and add some commentary below, but here’s the raw results in one table.  Click on the table to display a larger version; hit the back button to return here.

The following are the ten questions I posed for each of the ten criteria, each in my weighted order of importance.  My methodology for determining each grade is also noted.

  1. Could the person function effectively as President?
    • This criteria is obviously the most important.  Biden will be 78 when he’s sworn into office.  ‘Nuff said.
    • These grades are assigned based on the person’s resume.  I personally don’t think any of the field gets an A here and I decided against grading on a curve.
      • B:  Governors and Senators
      • C:  Representatives and Influencers
      • D:  State Representatives
  2. Could the person help win the 2020 Electoral College?
    • This criteria is also of utmost importance. A Biden/Anybody ticket needs to win and, in fact, the criteria list could easily just stop here.  I’ll note once again that I’m not at all interested in someone who can rack up additional votes in the liberal states that Biden will win anyway.  I’m likewise not at all interested in someone that can narrow Biden’s margin of defeat in a Republican state.  It’s all about winning the Electoral votes in the swing states.  The VP selection must increase Biden’s chances of winning one or more of the six toss-up states and also help guarantee that the ticket doesn’t lose the seven states that only lean Democratic.
    • These grades are my judgement calls as to how much the person could help the ticket win one or more swing states.
  3. Does this person have the media savvy, the verbal prowess, and the debate skills to function as the campaign’s barker?
    • Biden is not exactly a master in front of a camera or microphone.  He might be best positioned as a CEO with his VP choice as his front-and-center COO.  With the right choice, Biden could take a policy-centric high road and leave the political mud wrestling to his VP.
    • These grades are my judgement calls based on how the person has handled themselves in speeches, interviews, debates, hearings, etc.
  4. Would the person’s winning as VP have no impact on the number of Democrats in the Senate?
    • If a sitting Senator is selected, that seat needs to safely remain Democratic.  While winning the Presidency is the primary goal, winning the Senate – or at least not losing seats – is very important as well.
      • A:  Non-Senators
      • B:  Senators in seats that are likely to remain Democratic both via a temporary appointment by a Democratic Governor and in a special election
      • C:  Senators in seats that are at risk in either
      • D:  Senators in seats that are at-risk in both
  5. Would the person “balance” the ticket?
    • In addition to selecting a woman, Biden should also try to select someone from a younger generation since all three of the other ticket toppers are older than dirt.
    • The other possible balance criteria are race and politics – neither of which I find remotely interesting as independent criteria.  If a black, Latina, or progressive woman can help win the Electoral College, dandy.  Otherwise, there’s no reason whatsoever to just check a box.  (The fact that three of my top five candidates are black is not due to any consideration of their race.)
    • Grades are assigned by age at time of inauguration:
      • A:  <=55
      • B:  56-60
      • C:  61-65
      • D:  66-70
      • F:  >=71
  6. Would the person’s winning as VP have no impact on their state’s response to the pandemic?
    • If a sitting politician is selected, there needs to be a very solid answer to any questions of abandonment of their current office in a time of crisis.  I also wouldn’t put it past Trump to make any sitting Governor’s job handling the pandemic harder than it already is.  It’s also more than possible that he’d tweak the federal response levers just to make a sitting Senator look bad.  He could and he would.
      • D:  Governors
      • C:  Senators
      • B:  Representatives
      • A:  Others
  7. Does this person have a proven ability to fundraise at a national level?
    • Money does matter.
      • A:  Influencers
      • B:  Those that ran in the Democratic primary
      • C:  Other Senators and Governors
      • D:  Representatives
  8. Has this person been recently and sufficiently vetted by the national press?
    • In politics, surprises are seldom good things.  Furthermore, it’d be best to select someone that already has national name recognition.  Given the current travel restrictions, an introductory tour of the country isn’t a likely option.
      • A:  Those that ran in the Democratic primary
      • A/B/C/D:  Judgement calls on all others
  9. Could the person lead the party post-Biden and possibly win in 2024 should Biden choose to not seek a second term?
    • Biden would start a second term at the age of 82.  Just sayin’.  It pays to think ahead.
      • These grades are my judgment calls.
  10. Does the person have a military background?
    • Military service should always be a plus in elected office.  I also give credit in this category to anyone that has been a first responder.
      • A:  Military service
      • B:  First responder
      • F:  Others

A bit of candidate-specific commentary:

  • The highest grade on my list is a B-.  There is no perfect choice.
  • While Michelle Obama would be the best choice according to this analysis, she’s made it perfectly clear that she’s not at all interested.  She means it.  Moving on.
  • The next two choices were at the top of my VP list over a year ago.  In that post, I suggested that a Biden/Harris ticket was the Democratic party’s best shot at a win.  I also noted that a Biden/Klobuchar ticket was my close second choice.  The prior post was a more organic analysis and I stand by those opinions.  I’m quite happy that this more formal analysis independently produced a similar result a year later.
  • While Whitmer would be a good choice as well, it’d be very tough for a sitting Governor to campaign for another office during a pandemic.
  • Oprah’s simply not interested.  It’d be an attention-grabbing choice, but it’s not going to happen.
  • In case anyone cares, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) isn’t on the list because she doesn’t yet meet the Constitutional age requirement for VP.  If she did, she’d be at the bottom of the list.
  • Stacey Abrams has been getting a whole lot of press with respect to a potential VP nod – mostly because she’s actively campaigning for the job.  However, despite a national profile, she’s near the bottom of my list. Abrams served as a Georgia State Representative for 10 years, running unopposed in her last three elections.  She ran for Governor of Georgia in 2018 and lost.  While she came closer than expected, she still lost.  Thus, Abrams has not won any contested election in over a decade – and when she did it was in a GA state district with less than 30K voters.  The step up to VPOTUS is whole staircase.  She wouldn’t even carry her home state on a national ticket.

I think Harris, Klobuchar, and Whitmer will be the final three contenders for the VP spot and, personally, I’d be happy with any of them.  However, if I was placing a bet, it’d still be:

Biden / Harris 2020

COVID-19 Analysis II

Since I had a positive response to my initial COVID-19 analytics, I’ll try to post updates on a semi-regular basis.  This post uses data as of 4/24/20.  See below for commentary and some explanatory notes.  Click on any table to display a larger version; hit the back button to return here.

Selected Countries by % of Cases

Selected States by % of Cases

Selected Metropolitan Areas by % of Cases

Selected Metropolitan Areas by Estimated Peak

Commentary

  • Iceland continues to show the world how to handle COVID-19.  With 1 in 191 people testing positive, they do show a higher incidence of cases than most countries.   However, since Iceland has tested 1 out of every 7 of their residents – far more than anyone else – they’ve proven that a large number of people with COVID-19 are asymptomatic carriers.  This implies that other countries conducting  only minimal testing likely don’t know the extent of their actual problem.  Iceland’s overall success is underscored by a very low fatality rate of 1%.
  • The U.S. still lags in testing coverage at only 1 in 72 people.
  • In the U.S., NYC is still the major hotspot with 1 in 57 people testing positive.  New Orleans is close behind at 1 in 67.  Detroit has the worst fatality rate at 9%.
  • While my home state of Texas still appears to be doing comparatively well, Texas has pitiful testing coverage at only 1 in 121 people.  Compare that to New York where 1 in 28 people have been tested.  It’s likely we’re not doing nearly as well as we think we are.
  • The data shows that current restrictions are working and also suggests that it’s too early to relax them.  While businesses do eventually have to reopen, a few extra weeks would seem to be prudent.

Approach

  • Most published analytics focus on case counts.  However, case counts are only meaningful in the context of potential case counts.  I thus look at the percentage of cases within a given population center.  Since these percentages are mostly less than 1% (at least for now), I also report cases in terms of an easier to grasp “One of Every N People”.
  • I report deaths as a percentage within a given population center, in terms of  “One of Every N People”, and as a percentage of the reported cases (the fatality rate).
  • I currently follow states that are either the hardest hit or are 2020 toss-up states.
  • I also currently follow several metropolitan areas in the U.S.  Since the virus spreads via close contact, this would seem to be the most useful information.  For these, I add a simple means to track progression.  Within four rolling weeks (to avoid both daily noise and old data), I report the rate of increase in the number of cases.  This is akin to tracking the acceleration of the infection.  Obviously, the goal is to first get the acceleration to zero with a resultant constant rate of infection.  Only then can the area begin to decelerate until the actual number of cases approaches zero.  Finally, I add an extremely rough projection as to when each area could reach an acceleration of zero if everything stays the same (which it won’t).
  • There are way too many variables at this point to model any future deceleration.
  • My primary data sources:  New York Times, COVID Tracking Project, Texas DSHS, Worldometer, US Census Bureau.
  • All analytics are only as good as the underlying data and there are numerous reasons to question the validity of some of my datasets.
    • Some entities only report confirmed cases; others report presumed cases.  Some entities (e.g. China) are pretty obviously under-reporting their numbers.
    • Case counts depend on access to testing and that varies wildly from country-to-country, state-to-state, and county-to-county.
    • Reporting on testing itself is even more uneven.  My data source for U.S. test data felt the need to grade each state’s data quality.
    • While I attempt to normalize data from multiple sources, the fact remains that each source dataset is independently generated with its own collection methodology.
  • If asked nicely, I can try to add reporting for other countries, states, and/or metropolitan areas in future posts.

Quoting Trump

The Priorities USA super PAC released a 30-second ad that juxtaposed Trump’s own pandemic statements with concurrent case counts.  In response, the Trump campaign sent cease-and-desist letters to numerous TV stations – including a threat to pull their broadcast licenses – to try to keep the ad off the air.

What an absolutely brilliant campaign move.

The result was to give the ad a whole lot of media attention, tons of free air time, and, of course, a massive number of internet plays. (See: The Streisand Effect.)

Just wanted to do my bit to spread the word.