<sigh>
I recently received a blast email from the Democratic Party suggesting nine candidates to whom I should donate to help flip the House. Great timing, since I just did my own research. However, only one of those candidates is on my Top 20 list of target races. Another looks likely to win without much outside assistance. All are great candidates deserving of support, but money needs to go where it can to do the most good.
For example, one of the suggested candidates is Amy McGrath.
Amy McGrath (D) is a retired Marine Lieutenant Colonel who served in both Afghanistan and Iraq. She was the first female Marine to fly combat missions in an F/A-18. She is a graduate of the Naval Academy and has a master’s in international and global security studies. She has taught at the Naval Academy, served as the Pentagon’s Marine liaison to the State Department, and worked as a Congressional foreign affairs advisor. Her father is a high school teacher; her mother is a doctor; she is the mother of three. As one proof of her ability to work across the aisle, her husband (a retired Navy officer) is a life-long registered Republican. McGrath published a 32-page economic plan with a surprising level of detail for a House race. While understandably focused on her Kentucky district’s specific needs, it’s a template for a reasonable, practical, non-partisan approach to government. She’s running for the KY-06 seat against Andy Barr (R), an unremarkable incumbent who seems to be little more than a rubber stamp for the Republican majority.
I want Amy McGrath in Congress.
However, her polling is all over the map. While some polls do have her doing better – and the trend is in her favor – my analysis currently gives her only about a 32% chance of winning in a very Republican district. That puts the KY-06 race at #36 on my target list. My analysis may well be wrong but I have to go with the numbers for now.