I remain convinced that a Presidential ticket led by Kamala Harris gives Democrats a chance to retain the White House and moves the House/Senate landscapes in Democrats’ direction. I do, however, feel the urge to throw a wet blanket – or at least a damp one – on the current Democratic euphoria. Of course I do.
This Sunday marks 100 days until Election Day with even fewer days before the start of early voting. While European countries manage to conduct their elections quite well within that timeframe, it’s not been the American tradition. Democrats have a massive amount of work to do within a very compressed calendar.
Harris does inherit the Biden campaign infrastructure, but that is nowhere near the same as building her own infrastructure. Biden unsurprisingly based his campaign in Delaware – which isn’t exactly home territory for Harris. Biden also hand-picked his campaign staff with people he knew – people who would speak in his voice and play to his strengths. It turned out (IMHO) that they were remarkably bad at both of those things, but that’s not the point anymore. The campaign wasn’t incompetent, but it did seem to insist on using old-style political tactics for a Biden in his 60s. It was not a winning strategy.
Unfortunately, while Harris had little input into the selection of Biden’s campaign staff, she doesn’t have the luxury of making too many changes to it now. Not only does she not have the time, but she also can’t afford the bad-will associated with a wholesale campaign reorganization. People still remember the considerable dysfunction of her campaign during the 2020 Democratic primaries, and no one wants to repeat those mistakes.
Harris can and should, however, bring in her own senior campaign advisors to augment the existing campaign staff. Here are just a few of the areas of campaign focus where new blood might well be appropriate.
VP Selection
The VP selection process is already in full-gear and it is extremely important. Not only does the selection itself matter, but it is also Harris’ first major decision that is hers alone to make. She unfortunately needs to make that choice before August 7 to avoid any GOP games with respect to ballot access in some states. That’s very quick.
As I previously discussed, MI Gov. Whitmer remains my first choice for VP, and I continue to think that PA Gov. Shapiro would be a good choice as well. However, I’ve now personally elevated AZ Sen. Kelly to be my second choice. There are just too many upsides to Harris sharing a ticket with a retired Navy Captain and former astronaut who flew combat missions in the Gulf War and flew four shuttle missions to the ISS. Take that, guy who wrote “Hillbilly Elegy”.
Also, assuming that Harris does the smart thing and picks a VP that directly helps her collect at least some Electoral Votes, she needs to let her choice have a major say in how the campaign functions within their geographic sphere. This includes letting the VP choice add at least one senior campaign advisor from their own successful campaign staff.
Platform
Harris is a bit hamstrung as she is still Biden’s VP. She needs to walk a fine line on policies – taking partial credit for Biden/Harris accomplishments while still establishing her own positions that may differ from Biden’s. For example, she should probably let Biden lead the parade to convince Netanyahu to sign a Gaza cease-fire while positioning herself as less willing to write Israel a blank check if she wins the presidency.
Given the short timeframe, I’d still recommend that Harris try to stay out of the weeds on the major issues – staking out broad policy positions while mostly promoting Truth, Justice, and the American Way. She doesn’t need to be championing specific CO2 emission levels nor pressing for specific Chinese tariffs. She needs to be a sane, competent, uplifting, inclusive alternative to the convicted felon.
Social Media
There is no reason that the Harris campaign shouldn’t OWN social media, particularly as a means of connecting with younger voters. Harris isn’t a youngster herself, but she’s two decades younger than Trump. The campaign may already be off to a good start here, but they need to identify some Gen-Z hotshot to lead this parade and drown out Trump’s electronic diarrhea.
Traditional Media
The Harris campaign does still need a robust conventional ad strategy, but those ads need to be targeted to specific markets and demographics. At least some of these ads – FOR THE LOVE OF GOD – need to display a sly sense of humor. Well-produced ads can get away with so much more with a little wit behind them. Also, a touch of self-deprecating humor can take Trump’s best attack lines and turn them to her favor.
While some Harris attacks ads are appropriate, it’s the fun ads that are more likely to get shared on social media and replayed on traditional media for free. Free is good.
Debate Prep
I’d make an exception here. Whoever led Biden’s debate prep needs to be fired. If I was running the Harris campaign, I’m not sure I’d even bother with a debate. I have no doubt that Harris would win a fair debate against Trump, but if Fox is sponsoring it, it won’t be fair. I don’t see how a debate helps Harris with swing-state voters and, frankly, it’s not worth the necessary prep time. She has better things to do.
Data Analytics
Sure, I may be a bit biased on this point, but the Harris campaign absolutely needs to make data analytics a major focus.
Harris has opportunities to expand Democrats’ advantages with college-educated voters, young voters, female voters, Black voters, Latino voters, and undecided voters. Unfortunately, it’s not a one-size-fits-all problem. It’s also not a “gut-feeling” problem. It’s a data analysis problem.
Targeting each specific group in specific counties in specific swing-states requires detailed analyses of multiple sets of voter data. I suspect that the DNC has most of the necessary data, but I also suspect that the Biden campaign has not made any serious analysis of that data a priority. That needs to be corrected now. I’ve heard rumblings of bringing back some of the team that helped the Obama campaign in this regard. That may be fine, but the technology they used to great effect is now almost two decades old. The Harris campaign needs to make sure they’re not migrating to only slightly newer methodologies. This is another arena where new blood can act very quickly with the latest technologies. There are good companies that do this as a business. They need to find one.
I’ll eventually try to re-collect the necessary data for my own amateur attempt at analytics related to the Presidential, Senate, and House races, but I need to let things settle a bit before I start that tedious process. In particular, I want to wait until after Harris picks her VP. The Harris campaign, however, should be running simulations with each possible VP candidate prior to a selection.
In any case, data needs to be the driving force behind swing-state campaign strategies, particularly with respect to publicity and Get-Out-The-Vote efforts.
Regional Managers
To that end, the Harris campaign likely needs four distinct campaign strategies. There is, of course, the overall campaign which will likely be a slightly updated version of the Biden campaign. While this national organization would function as an umbrella and would be directly responsible for the blue states, there are also three swing-state regions that would seem to merit their own independent strategies. It is in these regions that Harris may need to refocus campaign efforts and where some new senior advisors could undoubtedly help.
The three regions of swing-state interest are:
- The Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, & Wisconsin with 34 Electoral votes.
- The Western Sun Belt states of Arizona and Nevada with 17 Electoral votes.
- The Eastern Sun Belt states of Georgia & North Carolina with 32 Electoral votes.
What works well in one region won’t necessarily translate to others. The Harris campaign needs political strategists that truly understand each region and its voters. These people must have proven histories of winning statewide elections in the regions. The Biden campaign might already have one or more of these; they might not. But they are necessary, nonetheless.
Within each region, each state has their own voting requirements, their own early-voting processes, their own media landscapes, and their own nuances for organizing on-the-ground efforts to get Democratic voters to the polls. The regional managers need to have the power and resources to essentially run their own mini-campaigns – coordinating with the national campaign for scheduling and budgets and with existing party organizations in each state. A centrally-controlled campaign can work perfectly fine, but the Harris campaign just doesn’t have the time to build one.
The regional managers would be in the best position to quickly determine what joint appearances and campaign coordination make the most sense with the various Governors, Senators, & Representatives in the swing states – including popular sitting Democrats and Democrats concurrently running for office this year. Trump doesn’t seem to care much about his party’s success; he’s only worried about his own. Democrats need a much broader focus.
Rapid-Response Team
At the risk of being a black cloud, some unfortunate event is likely to happen before the election. It may be related to an overseas conflict, a natural disaster, a mass shooting, a terrorist strike, a stock market plunge, or a localized riot. It will hopefully be something considerably less major than these possibilities. In any case, it’s best to be ready. While an appropriate agency of the Biden/Harris administration will hopefully be on top of an actual disaster response, the Harris campaign needs to be able to independently respond as well. While it can’t plan the response itself, it should identify and pre-fund a rapid-response team with direct, real-time access to Harris.
MONEY
The above are just the things that occur to me! I may be a bit of a political junkie, but running a campaign is certainly not in my wheelhouse. I’m sure I missed something important. The Democratic political class needs to get their act together, avoid in-fighting, follow Joe Biden’s lead, and devote themselves 100% to defending democracy in November.
The best assistance that we mere mortals can provide at the moment is to help fund the campaign’s efforts. The next deadline for Federal Election Commission reports is July 31. Campaign donations made on or before that date will be reported to the FEC and that fundraising number is the one that gets the most media attention as indicative of a campaign’s strength.
I’ll update my previous target suggestions for Senate and House races at a later date. For now, however, you can (and should!) donate directly to the Harris campaign via the ActBlue links on the campaign’s website.