Technically, the 2020 Senate map favors Democrats. It just doesn’t favor them enough.
While it’s still very early and candidates are still unknown in many states, an initial look seems appropriate. If Democrats manage to retake the White House, they’ll need a Democratic Senate to do much of anything. If Democrats don’t beat Trump, a Democratic Senate could at least limit the damage.
Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to take definitive control of the Senate (or a net gain of 3 seats if Democrats win at the top of the ticket).
In 2020, Republicans will defend 22 seats and Democrats will defend 12 seats. By my count, however, only 14 seats are at all competitive – 9 Republican and 5 Democratic. Since 12 of the 14 seats are in swing states, there will be massive synergy between the Presidential and Senate races. A strong Democratic ticket could certainly help Democratic Senate candidates; a mediocre ticket will be a disaster all around.
Here’s my current Senate breakdown, more or less in order of a possible Democratic win:
The details aren’t at all good:
- The seat most likely to flip is currently held by a Democrat. It would take a minor miracle for Doug Jones to retain his Alabama Senate seat. Democrats’ best bet is for Roy Moore to again be the Republican nominee and it’s doubtful Republicans will repeat that mistake.
- Democrat Tom Udall isn’t running for re-election in New Mexico which puts that state more in-play than it needed to be.
- Democrats failed to recruit 6 (SIX!) of the best potential candidates to unseat Republican Senators. Beto O’Rourke passed in Texas, Stacey Abrams passed in Georgia, Tom Vilsack passed in Iowa, John Hickenlooper passed in Colorado, Susan Rice passed in Maine, and Kathleen Sebelius passed in Kansas.
- Democrats have yet to field solid candidates in two of the most flippable races (Colorado and Maine).
Unfortunately, I could go on.
There is a bit of not-bad news:
- Mark Kelly, former astronaut and husband of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, is running in Arizona.
- Amy McGrath, possibly the best qualified candidate to lose in 2018, looks likely to run in Kentucky.
- MJ Hegar, another well-qualified candidate that lost in 2018, is running in Texas.
To take control of the Senate, my initial analysis says that Democrats need to:
- Successfully defend 4 of the 5 in-play seats that they currently occupy.
- Flip all 3 toss up seats.
- Flip 1 or 2 seats that currently favor the GOP (depending on who wins the White House).
That’d be an uphill climb with a great set of candidates. Without superstars, it’ll be more like free soloing at night. At this point, Democrats will be lucky to not lose even more Senate seats in 2020.
That’s just embarrassing.