Time to update my previous Congressional election postings. While the Democrats have improved their chances in both chambers, it’s still a numbers game.
My Top 20 House race targets have changed a bit. Again, this list reflects my analysis of where money can be best spent to flip the House. See my previous posting for details.
Three House races fell off my list that are now likely (D); one race fell off that is now likely (R). There are now 11 other seats that already look likely to flip. Thus, additional wins in these Top 20 close races would now give the Democrats a 6-vote margin in the House. Since Democrats currently have a slight lead in 18 of these 20 races, the House is well within their reach.
My new Senate prognosis also puts Democrats in a slightly better position than I first estimated. Of course, that’s rather like doubling your chances of winning the lottery by buying a second ticket. The odds are technically better, but it’s still a rather long shot.
To just barely take control of the Senate, Democrats would need to win all 11 of the competitive races where they currently lead AND win 6 out of the 8 remaining competitive races where they are even or behind. While not impossible, it’s unlikely.
Of course, with seven weeks to Election Day, anything can happen. And it undoubtedly will.