I’ve seen a fair number of articles lately discussing Democratic candidate options to take on Trump in 2020.
While I fully understand the appeal of looking ahead to a brighter future (and a brighter President), there’s over two years between now and the next Presidential election. In the meantime, the mid-term elections this year might be worth a thought or two. On the table are 35 Senate seats, all 435 House seats, 39 governorships, and a ton of state and local elections.
But, okay, let’s briefly talk about 2020.
The most-mentioned names today (Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, etc.) aren’t yet setting the world afire. There’s also a plethora of folks whom the press has anointed as potential nominees for one reason or another (from Kamala Harris to Howard Shultz to Mark Cuban to Oprah Winfrey to Dwayne Johnson). Cool. Bottom line here: No one… NO ONE… has a clue how this is going to shake out.
A couple of brief history notes:
Ahead of the 1992 primaries, George H. W. Bush’s approval ratings were sky-high. The big name Democrats at the time (Mario Cuomo, Al Gore, etc.) ran for the hills, leaving a number of lower-profile candidates to fight it out: Jerry Brown, Paul Tsongas, Bob Kerrey, Tom Harkin and a little-known Governor of Arkansas: Bill Clinton. Clinton announced his candidacy in October of 1991, 13 months prior to the presidential election. He proceeded to lose 10 of the first 11 primaries/caucuses and didn’t clinch the nomination until June of 1992, just 6 months prior to winning the presidency.
Ahead of the 2008 primaries, George W. Bush’s approval ratings were in the toilet. This attracted a large slate of Democratic candidates, including Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, Bill Richardson, and a little-known Senator from Illinois: Barack Obama. Obama announced his candidacy in February of 2008, 9 months prior to the presidential election. The primary quickly became a drawn-out, two-person battle between Clinton and Obama. Obama didn’t clinch the nomination until June of 2008, just 6 months prior to winning the presidency.
The take-away here: We’re 28 months away from the 2020 elections. The last two Democratic presidents were largely unknown at this point in their first election cycles. An equivalent announcement for the 2020 candidate likely won’t come for at least another year and history suggests they may not be the immediate front-runner.
Breathe.