(Political Ramblings from a Little Left of Center)
Last week, federal prosecutors called Donald Trump a felon. In their sentencing memo for Michael Cohen, Trump’s long-time lawyer, the prosecutors noted that Cohen paid off two women who claim to have had extramarital affairs with Trump. Since the payments were intended to influence the Presidential campaign, they violated campaign finance law when they were…
In the recent elections in Wisconsin, Democrats won every single statewide race. Voters chose a Democratic U.S. Senator, a Democratic Governor, a Democratic Attorney General, a Democratic Treasurer, and a Democratic Secretary of State. In addition, Democrats won 54% of votes cast statewide for the U.S. House and 54% of votes cast statewide for the…
I thought I’d share my current analysis of the Electoral College landscape for the 2020 Presidential election. I’m still collecting data and tweaking algorithms but, since I’ll be doing that for the next couple of years, a work-in-progress snapshot seems appropriate. I find it seriously counter-productive to ignore facts when trying to formulate a game…
Nancy Pelosi is not my favorite Democrat. I think she and Harry Reid missed a golden opportunity in 2009 to reach across the aisle and pick off a few moderate Republicans for some early bipartisan wins when Democrats briefly controlled everything. (Yes, moderate Republicans did once exist.) The pair could have made Obama’s life a…
In partial preparation for an initial analysis of the 2020 Presidential election, some of the first state-level data I gathered related to the Electoral College. That data subset quickly took me down a rabbit hole chasing after a rodent that’s been on my nerves for a very long time. This is why I have a…
I’ve just begun the process of gathering and organizing the necessary data to do some predictive and prescriptive 2020 election analytics. The questionable key word here is “necessary”. As I piece together a data set from a multitude of sources (that are often not easily consumable), I constantly find additional data sets that might also…
It really hadn’t occurred to me to go back and evaluate my 2018 race analyses. But when a reader asked, I thought it was an interesting question. I’m currently online at a bar, so a little self-indulgence seems quite appropriate. With respect to the Senate, I mostly just called a Democratic takeover improbable at best. …
Rather than doing “real” work, I’ve found myself digging through initial election results data. Yeah, I’m a geek. I could do this all day. All night. Whatever. However, I thought I’d best share a snapshot of what I have and try to move on for now. As every political commentator has constantly noted, a lot…
Election results are still in doubt in Georgia, Florida, and Arizona. Because, of course. Look. We’re quite obviously a pretty evenly divided country at the moment. One side or the other isn’t going to be happy with any final results in these races. It’s tough to lose and it’s even tougher to lose when it’s…
Well. That was interesting. I considered making a drinking game out of election night. You know, like taking a shot whenever a seat flipped from (R) to (D). Or pouring a drink whenever Wolf Blitzer reported a race’s results, with less than 5% reporting, as being a bellwether for the whole country. Or whenever polling…