I will soon post another blog entry to offer my personal reflections on recent events. First, however, I wanted to update and post something that I’d originally intended only as a cautionary tale but that now reads more like a future history.
History seldom repeats like a shot-for-shot remake of a classic Hollywood movie. The repetition is more akin to a new Hallmark Christmas movie with a curiously familiar plot.
I’ll start with a way-too-brief slice of history:
In the early 1920s, Germany was a constitutional republic. One of many political forces in the republic was the far-right Nazi party. The Great Depression caused severe global economic hardships and working-class discontent. In January of 1933, the leader of the far-right Nazi party was appointed Chancellor of Germany. He promised prosperity for “true” Germans by eliminating Jews who were poisoning German blood, political opponents, and anyone deemed to be a deviant.
A fire of questionable origin in a government building provided the Nazis with an excuse for the emergency “Reichstag Fire Decree “– a suspension of individual rights and due process of law. Hitler ordered a violent purge of top military leadership to cement his control with officers loyal only to him. The German parliament declared the purge legal after the fact, based on a false accusation of conspiracy, The government could now jail anyone without specific charges, and they built massive concentration camps to hold them. The “Editors Law” gave the German Propaganda Ministry complete control of the German press. Finally, the German constitution was replaced by Führerprinzip, a Leadership Principle that declared “the Führer’s word is above all written law”.
The similar setup and potentially repeating plot beats in our current reality are rather hard to miss.
In the early 2020s, the United States was a constitutional republic. One of many political forces in the republic was the far-right wing of the Republican party. The COVID Pandemic caused severe global economic hardships and working-class discontent. In January of 2025, the leader of the far-right wing of the Republican party will be sworn in as President of the United States. He has promised prosperity for “true” Americans by eliminating immigrants who are “poisoning the blood of our country”, political opponents, and anyone deemed to be a deviant.
Trump has already stated his intention to declare illegal immigration to be an emergency, allowing him to invoke the Insurrection Act of 1870. The Act is a one-size-fits-all excuse to invoke emergency presidential powers. While the Posse Comitatus Act generally bars the U.S. military from operating on U.S. soil, the Insurrection Act suspends that restriction and allows U.S. troops to be deployed to suppress “any insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination, or conspiracy.” It can be invoked merely by Presidential declaration and nothing in the Act bothers to define any of its terms. Trump will thus have full authority to use the military however he wishes. He will immediately use that authority to arrest, imprison, and deport not only illegal immigrants, but also immigrants legally in the U.S. that the new government accuses of crimes it doesn’t need to prove. Trump has also stated his intention to build massive retention camps to hold the immigrants.
Once the camps are built and the military is deployed as a federal police force, it is a very short leap to expand that usage – possibly based on a local civil protest, a large anti-government rally, … or a fire of questionable origin in a government building. The military could then be used to arrest and imprison American citizens whom the government considers conspiratorial. Trump has already explicitly named and threatened perceived enemies with charges of treason and sedition – including Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Barack & Michelle Obama, Bill & Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, Adam Shiff, Liz Cheney, Jack Smith, and Mark Milley. Trump has also targeted numerous news reporters and even late-night hosts.
The Insurrection Act could also be used to direct the U.S. military to:
- Shut down any news organization, publication, website, or podcast that the government deems to be conspiratorial.
- Counter any armed forces or law enforcement agencies in states that resist Presidential control.
- And, yes, to kill anyone Trump wants to kill.
Believe me. I am well aware that some of the above sounds absolutely ludicrous. I challenge anyone, however, to tell me exactly what guardrails could possibly stop Trump from doing each and every thing I’ve listed. And more.
Trump himself, of course, has no moral code that will even give him pause.
Trump’s cabinet and advisors will be sycophants or will have their own agendas that require Presidential powers. They won’t stop Trump.
Trump could be impeached and removed from office by Congress. However, given that Trumpists will be in full control of the House and the Senate, Congress won’t stop Trump. They won’t even provide oversight.
The Supreme Court could step in to put limits on the Insurrection Act . However, given the current composition of the Court, they won’t stop Trump. In fact, the Supreme Court’s recent declaration of absolute Presidential immunity will have preemptively placed Trump above U.S. laws. Führerprinzip, indeed. Justice Sotomayor’s dissent to the 6-3 decision offered just a few rather stark Presidential immunity use cases:
“Orders the Navy’s Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival? Immune. Organizes a military coup to hold onto power? Immune. Takes a bribe in exchange for a pardon? Immune. Immune, immune, immune.”
The U.S. military could resist. And they will. Regardless of political preferences, military officers swear their allegiance to the Constitution, not to the President. That oath is not taken lightly, and military personnel are obligated NOT to follow illegal orders. Multiple senior generals who served during Trump’s first administration (and who were definitely conservatives) have recounted how they thwarted numerous attempts by Trump to use the military for his own personal purposes. Unfortunately, Trump has learned from that experience. As Commander in Chief, Trump can and will simply work his way down the military chain of command with reassignments, forced retirements, charges of conspiracy, or worse. He’ll eventually find people who will do his bidding. If he tires of the process, the President could even invoke emergency powers to simply appoint any civilian of his choice to any officer grade in the military. Think: Gen. Stephen Miller. Short of a coup, the military will not be able to stop Trump.
While armed forces are obviously the big stick that Trump will swing as he wishes, Trump can and will use other government levers to do significant damage to American society. Trump has already announced his intention to replace apolitical, career civil servants – who have expertise in their respective fields – with right-wing ideologues who possess zero relevant experience. Imagine:
- Someone at HHS who thinks all vaccines are dangerous and who discounts medical science.
- Someone at NOAA who considers hurricane tracking research to be driven by the myth of climate change.
- Someone at the FCC revoking network licenses due to unfavorable Presidential coverage.
- Someone at FEMA denying disaster assistance to Democratic-run states.
- Someone in the AG’s office issuing a plethora of criminal indictments against political opponents – “the enemy from within”.
- Someone with influence over NASA and DoD who awards all major government space contracts to one commercial company.
Sadly, we won’t have to just imagine any of the above for very long.
While King Trump will finally get his Putin / Xi / Kim moment presiding over a massive military parade down Pennsylvania Avenue (that U.S. generals will abhor), there won’t be an immediate phalanx of soldiers goose-stepping down every Main Street.
Rather, the march of fascism will likely appear in small, incremental steps until the American Experiment is only a distant mirage.
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