Democrats need a new Presidential ticket.
Initially, I was adamantly opposed to a change and I even chided many of my friends for over-reacting to the debate fiasco and for feeding a Republican narrative. However, as I’ve considered reality – and the data supporting that reality – I have re-examined my initial knee-jerk opposition. Yes, that’s right. I changed my mind. Mark your calendars.
I’ll expand on my epiphany in a moment. First, however, please allow me a slight digression…
The Republican Candidate
I’ve often accused the vast majority of Republicans of backing Trump regardless of any and all facts. I haven’t changed my mind about that.
I don’t even need to discuss the numerous issues I have with Republican policy positions. I can accept that reasonable people might have vastly different political opinions than the ones that I personally favor. Trump himself, however, is not a reasonable person.
The man has denegrated the sacrifices of American soldiers, derided American prisoners of war, mocked disabled people, cheated on his pregnant wife, incited a mob to storm our nation’s capitol, bragged about grabbing women’s vaginas, verbally attacked the spouses of his adversaries, and sold branded Bibles for personal profit. I could easily go on. And on. And on.
Trump is everything that mothers teach their children not to be: a petty, immoral, narcissistic, uninformed bully. He is the embodiment of megalomania: a twisted amalgam of the worst traits of Iago, Bill Sykes, Sauron, Mr. Potter, Jabba the Hutt, and Voldemort (although most of these fictional villains were written to possess considerably more intelligence).
He has villainized immigrants to the point that I’ve been reminded of an interview that Gustave Gilbert conducted with Hermann Goering, former Nazi Reichsmarshall, in Goering’s Nuremberg cell in 1946. Gilbert pointed out that, in a democracy, the people have a voice in their government. This was Goering’s response:
“Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.”
Yes, it apparently does.
While there was once some hope that our judicial system might save us from Trump, that hope is now gone. The federal election interference case is toast, the Georgia election interference case has been paused, the classified documents case has been completely thrown out, and, of course, the insane SCOTUS presidential immunity ruling gave Trump a Get-Out-Of-Jail-Free card for anything and everything. Trump has thus managed to dispose of his outstanding legal issues based mostly on rulings from judges that he personally appointed. While some cases are pending prosecutorial appeals, there is little hope of success given Trump’s control of the Supreme Court. At the very least, there is now a zero chance that any of these cases will make it to trial before the November elections.
Not that it matters. While Trump was convicted of 34 felony counts of fraud in New York and was found liable for sexual assault in a civil trial, Republicans cannot be convinced to escape the cult that was once a proud political party.
Thus, a truly vile human being is now the Republican nominee for President of the United States.
Which brings me back to….
The Democratic Candidate
Our only hope now is that Democrats can retain the White House.
I personally think that Biden has done a good job as President. Others may disagree. However, on a personal level, the difference between the two candidates is readily apparent: Joe Biden is a decent person; Donald Trump is not. It’s really that simple.
That said, I cannot in good conscience accuse Republicans of blindly supporting their candidate while I concurrently refuse to see any issues with the Democratic candidate. And I do have issues. Post-debate conversations regarding a Democratic ticket change were squeezed out of the headlines by recent events. Those conversations need to be revived.
I’m only moderately concerned about Biden’s debate performance – although that was definitely tough to watch. I wouldn’t claim to be an expert, but I do have some personal exposure to people with Sundowner’s Syndrome. Biden seemed to be exhibiting some related behavior during the debate, most notably late-day confusion. However, Trump has demonstrated similar behavior. Both are old men, neither are exactly at the top of their game, and arguing about which candidate is less mentally challenged isn’t how we should be choosing the President of the United States.
I’m more concerned about the truly horrible campaign that Biden has run thus far. He has an impressive resume upon which to run but he’s not getting that message out. His campaign seems to expect him to be a much better communicator than he is. Biden is simply not a great speaker and he never has been. A good campaign would play to Biden’s strengths with well-produced, recorded political ads with a touch of humor. Surrogates should be doing the heavy lifting at rallies.
I’m most concerned about the electoral math. I no longer believe that Biden can win a second term. Sure, the election isn’t until November and things can always change. However, at this point, I don’t see a reasonable path to 270 electoral votes. Winning the undecided voters is a great goal but it’s less important than people think. There just aren’t that many undecided voters in the swing states. Democrats already have a solid base that certainly doesn’t like Trump but they’re also not particularly excited about their own candidate. The whole game is swing-state turnout and Biden is making his voters less engaged every single day. It’s not that they’ll vote for Trump; they just won’t vote. And that’s just as bad. Furthermore, Biden could not only lose all of the swing states; it currently appears that he could lose a couple of blue states as well.
Also concerning is the impact of a weak candidate at the top of the Democratic ticket on down-ballot races. It’s probable that a landslide loss by Biden would be accompanied by a Democratic loss of the Senate and would make a Democratic takeover of the House impossible.
A new ticket would be a hard reset. It would give all Democrats a reason to be excited again and would leave Republicans feeling like they’re stuck with yesterday’s leftovers.
The process of changing the ticket isn’t hard and there’s still time to do it. However, the only way this works well is if Biden voluntarily steps aside before the Democratic National Convention on August 22. While he’s made it quite clear that he doesn’t plan to do that, Biden’s not an idiot and he’s not immune to reality. If enough folks can get past Biden’s inner circle (mostly Jill) and convince him that he has no chance of winning, I do believe that he’ll do the right thing. The message to Biden isn’t “You’re old and feeble.” The message is “You’re a patriot and it’s time.”
Everything would start with Biden issuing a brief statement, such as:
“While I continue to believe that I could win a second term, I acknowledge the voices of Americans that are ready for the Old Guard to pass the torch of governance to a new generation of leaders. I have always put my country above my own personal desires and I will continue to do so. To that end, I am withdrawing my name from consideration as the 2024 Democratic nominee for President of the United States and I will provide whatever support I can to the Democratic candidate chosen to succeed me. For now, it remains my honor to serve as your President. God bless you and God Bless America!”
Then the fun starts. We don’t have time to hold new primary elections, but then, we never really had them. It was a foregone conclusion that Biden was going to be the Democratic nominee. However, no one actually voted for a candidate; they voted for a slate of delegates that would choose a candidate. While they are pledged to Biden, that pledge is void if Biden withdraws. In that case, the DNC becomes an actual nominating convention as opposed to just a media event. There may be some drama, but that will only serve to drive viewership and interest. In the end, Democrats would come together to support a new ticket to defeat Trump.
Of course, Biden should then be given the prime-time nominating speech at the DNC to formally pass the torch to the new nominee in front of a national TV audience. Biden then goes out as an Elder-Statesman Extraordinaire and Democrats get a campaign jumpstart. Win-win!
So who should be on the new ticket? Party leaders, including Biden, will hold a lot of sway over the DNC delegates.
The obvious choice for the top of the ticket is Kamala Harris.
Biden’s campaign money would simply transfer to Harris since her name is on the current ticket. That shouldn’t be a deciding factor, though, since the money could otherwise be transferred to a PAC and/or major donors could have their money refunded to be re-contributed to a new campaign. Also, a new ticket would open the floodgates for new campaign donations.
Of greater concern would be the horrible optics of jumping over a black woman to lead the ticket. That scenario would only work if Harris was full-throated in her support of an alternative candidate. She might be convinced to do so with an unspoken agreement that a new Democratic President would give her a plum ambassadorship and would then nominate her for the first Supreme Court opening.
While Harris would be the likely candidate, my personal choice would be Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. She’s smart, well-liked, and is a great campaigner. She would also eat Trump’s lunch in a debate. Most importantly, she would likely bring Democrats two swing states: Michigan and neighboring Wisconsin.
For either Harris or Whitmer, I’d pair them with another woman as the VP candidate. That would highlight Trump’s choice of J.D. Vance as just another rich white guy and it would reward a major Democratic constituency. Whitmer would be an excellent choice for Harris’ VP. For Whitmer, my choice would be Susan Rice (former UN ambassador, National Security Advisor, Domestic Policy Advisor, etc.).
Do let me be clear: The two candidates we have at the moment are not equally bad. I’d prefer another option, but I’ll certainly vote for Biden if he’s the Democratic candidate. In a perfect world, our choices would be between filet mignon and prime rib. However, in our world, it’s not that difficult to choose between ground beef and horse manure.