We finally have a Speaker of the House. Woo. Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) will be an unmitigated disaster and a likely topic of future blog posts. For the moment, though, I’m simply exhausted with all of the House drama and needed to switch my focus towards some state-level elections. Even in this off year, there are some current contests that are worth watching.
None of them, however, are in my home state of Texas. We have no statewide candidates on the November 7 ballot and instead have 14 proposed amendments to our state Constitution. None are meaningful at a national level, a few are meaningful to Texans, and others aren’t particularly meaningful at all. Early voting started Monday; I voted Monday. “Shit happens. Vote Early.”
Louisiana held their gubernatorial election earlier this month. Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) was term limited and, sadly, Republican Jeff Landry flipped that statehouse red. Louisiana isn’t in-play at the national level, but it’s still a shame to lose a Governor’s office to a MAGA idiot.
Kentucky’s gubernatorial elections are Nov. 7 and Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) is running for re-election against Republican David Cameron. Kentucky is definitely a red state and Republicans hold a strong supermajority in the state legislature. However, the state has a long history of thinking locally when it comes to the Governor’s office and Beshear has been good for Kentucky’s economy. With a slight lead in the polls (even the GOP-funded polls), there’s a decent chance he’ll win re-election. A Beshear win, however, would be indicative of nothing at the national level. Biden lost Kentucky by a 26% margin; he’ll lose the state again in 2024.
Mississippi’s gubernatorial elections are Nov. 7 and Gov. Tate Reeves (R-MS) is in a surprisingly tight race with Democrat Brandon Presley (Elvis’ second cousin). Reeves is the least popular Republican governor running for re-election this year. On the other hand, Presley has run a great campaign and the latest polls show him only slightly behind, well within the margin of error. I’d love to see the statehouse flip in a bright red state, but it’s doubtful and it wouldn’t be indicative of a trend in any case. Biden lost Mississippi by a 16% margin; he’ll lose the state again in 2024.
Pennsylvania has a Supreme Court race that is highlighting one particular issue. The race between Democrat Daniel McCaffery and Republican Carolyn Carluccio won’t itself change control of the state court but could shed some light on how potent the abortion issue might be in 2024 swing states – including Pennsylvania.
Ohio will vote on a state Constitutional amendment to protect abortion access and a separate ballot initiative would legalize marijuana in the state. Despite Republican efforts to keep both issues off the ballot, polls show that both have a high chance of passing. Ohio is itself a red state, but the vote margins here may provide a hint toward what issues will resonate with voters in 2024.
Virginia’s state legislative races will provide a major clue about how that state will factor in the 2024 elections. Virginia is definitely a swing state. Biden won by 10% in 2020, but Republican Glenn Youngkin won the governor’s race by 2% in 2021. Democrats have a slight majority in the state Senate; Republicans have a slight majority in the state House. However, all seats in both state chambers are up for election this year. While education is the prominent local issue this cycle, abortion access is a close second. Both parties will be targeting suburban swing districts, trying out key campaign messages that will take them into 2024.
Finally, it’ll be interesting to see the results of a ton of Nov. 7 elections in New York’s Long Island. Yeah, you heard me. Long Island.
All county legislature seats are up for election in both Nassau and Suffolk counties, the county executive election in Suffolk will be the first without an incumbent in a decade, and there’s a ton of town supervisor races. If you’re wondering why anyone that doesn’t live there should give a damn, it’s because Long Island is a quintessentially purple suburban swing district with a fairly equal number of Democrats, Republicans, and independents. This area has thus been a testing ground for political messaging and serves as a decent bellwether for the strength of each party’s pitch to voters in swing states.
Off year elections in Long Island historically favor Republicans and, indeed, they did quite well in 2022. Democrats took a beating, including the loss of all four U.S. Houses seats. Presidential election years are almost always closer. In 2020, Biden won Nassau county by a wide margin and only barely lost Suffolk county. Current polls indicates that Biden would do even better today, but 2024 is too far away for accurate polling. The upcoming elections will thus provide a much better canary in the coal mine.
Both parties have their own albatrosses in this cycle. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) isn’t particularly popular in Long Island and Rep. George Santos (R-NY) was the winner of one of the aforementioned Congressional seats in 2020. Republicans will try to focus on policy issues while steering away from abortion restrictions that aren’t popular here. Democrats will pounce on issues of candidate integrity while steering clear of unpopular state policies out of Albany.
Local issues and candidate personalities will prevail at a micro-level in Long Island, so I’m not personally focused on any individual races. However, a macro-level review of the Long Island election results could shed some light on how 2024 might play out in swing states.
*** Remember to Vote! ***