It’s still way too early to make bold predictions with respect to the 2024 Senate races, but since I follow this stuff, I thought I’d share.
Of the 34 Senate seats up for election in 2024, I now count 12 seats that could possibly flip parties. Of course, we’re still 8 months from the start of primary season and 1.5 years away from the general election. Candidates matter, we don’t yet have a clear picture who will be running against who, and we don’t yet know what national issues will be center stage. All that said, here’s my snapshot of the dozen races that I’m following:
The above table is sorted by the likelihood that the seat will be held by a Democrat in 2024. I’ll first take a brief look at each state and then talk about the math and election strategies.
- Maryland: While MA will be a long shot for Republicans, it will be an open seat – which makes it in-play. If popular Republican Gov. Larry Hogan changes his mind and runs, he’d likely be the immediate favorite. Luckily for Democrats, Logan says he’s not interested in the Senate. Democrats have tons of possible candidates – one of whom will win the general election unless an ugly primary turns off voters. And we should never underestimate the ability of Democrats to screw themselves.
- California: As with MA, this will be an open seat in a blue state which Democrats could fumble. In CA, all candidates run in a single “jungle” primary where the top two advance to the general election. Democrats currently have three good candidates who all want to move up from the U.S. House – Adam Schiff, Katie Porter, and Barbara Lee. Gov. Gavin Newsom might also run. The only “name” possibility at the moment on the GOP side is Steve Garvey – the former first baseman for the LA Dodgers and San Diego Padres. If the GOP could find two decent candidates to split the R votes while four or more Democrats split the D votes, it is conceivable that two Republicans could face off in the general election. While it’s very unlikely that Democrats lose this seat, the jungle primary at least puts it on my watch list.
- Wisconsin: Current Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is popular in WI but this purple state is never a sure thing. The good news for Democrats is that there’s not an obvious Republican candidate to challenge her and the GOP primary is likely to be ugly.
- Michigan: This will be an open seat in a purple state. U.S. Rep Elissa Slotkin is the likely Democratic candidate but a favorite has yet to emerge on the GOP side. At this point, Slotkin’s fundraising abilities and an almost clear primary field make this her race to lose.
- Pennsylvania: Current Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is well-liked in PA and should win re-election. However, the likely Republican nominee, David McCormick, is a former Army Ranger and hedge-fund CEO who will put up a good, well-funded fight.
- Nevada: First-term Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is in for a tough re-election contest in a purple state. Republicans haven’t settled on a challenger yet, and Rosen could get lucky and draw a far-right nut job (e.g. Jim Marchant). However, if Republicans nominate someone sane (e.g. former NV Sen. Dean Heller), they have a decent chance of beating Rosen.
- Ohio: Current Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has been the rare Democrat to win state-wide in red-leaning Ohio over the last decade. Brown is popular in OH but a good GOP candidate would make this a competitive race. As of yet, however, no Republican has yet risen to be the favorite to challenge Brown.
- Arizona: Once again, AZ will be very weird. Current Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema was elected as a Democrat but bolted the party in 2022. She still caucuses with Democrats (currently giving them a Senate majority) but she’d run in 2024 without the Democratic party’s backing. She’s filed the necessary paperwork to run, but hasn’t yet declared her candidacy. In any case, Democrats will run their own candidate – likely Ruben Gallego. Republicans, on the other hand, have an asylum full of potential candidates (Kari Lake, Blake Masters, Andy Biggs, etc.) who would be entertaining if they weren’t so dangerous. Sinema & Gallego could, unfortunately, split the D vote enough to swing the election to whatever Republican wins the primary.
- Montana: Current Democratic Sen. Jon Tester has survived since 2007 in deep-red Montana. Since this is a home-state race for the GOP Senate campaign chair, it’ll get a lot of national party attention. Tester’s brand is formidable but a lot will depend on who the GOP picks to challenge him in 2024. Possibly the most worrisome possible opponent for Tester is retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy – who is wealthy enough to self-fund his campaign and who doesn’t come off as a far-right idiot.
- West Virginia: Current Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin has yet to declare for 2024. If he doesn’t run, this seat is a safe R pickup. Even if he does run, he’ll have a very tough re-election battle against likely GOP candidate Gov. Jim Justice. Both men are popular in WV but the state is solid red. While Manchin’s had surprise wins before, a repeat has to be considered a long-shot.
- Texas: As a Texan, I’d dearly love to declare the race against current Republican Sen. Ted Cruz as winnable by Democrats but, barring a miracle, it’s just not. TX Democrats can’t even settle on a nominee. U.S. Rep. Colin Allred is the likely candidate but state Sen. Roland Gutierrez will battle him to see who would lose to Cruz by the smallest margin. Dandy. Don’t get me wrong. I’ll be writing a check to whoever wins the Democratic primary. I’m just not holding my breath.
- Florida: Current Republican Sen. Rick Scott isn’t particularly well liked nor is he a particularly talented politician. However, Scott is rich, he is the incumbent in an increasingly red state, and Democrats don’t really have a good candidate to run against him. Boo.
Unfortunately,, the landscape has gotten worse for Democrats since my December weigh-in. 10 of the 12 seats above are currently part of the slim Democratic Senate majority. Worse, the two seats held by Republican are very unlikely to flip. Ouch.
To maintain their current Senate majority, Democrats need to defend 6 seats that are seriously at risk while winning 2 races with new candidates. That’s 8 states where the national party will need to spend time and money. They “could” lose one of the 8 seats if Democrats retain the White House in 2024, but even 7 wins is a very tough ask. To make matter worse, Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) appears to building a much more competent GOP Senate campaign organization than Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) did in 2022.
While Democrats do need to make sure they don’t shoot themselves in the foot in MA and CA, there’s little reason to waste a ton of money in those states. Likewise, while TX and FL would be really nice to win, Democrats simply can’t afford to throw money at two very expensive states unless the Democratic candidates can independently prove their races to be competitive.
My advice to Senate Democrats? Confirm as many judges as you can now. The odds of you retaining control of the Senate aren’t good.