Being a Texan, I’ve been asked for my thoughts on Ken Paxton – our recently impeached and currently suspended Attorney General.
Well, he’s a dishonest, immoral, narcissistic jackass.
Clear enough?
But, okay, I’ll elaborate just a bit.
Paxton has been the TX AG since 2015 and was federally indicted that same year for obvious securities fraud in a case that has still not gone to trial due to Paxton’s delaying tactics. However, despite his legal and moral issues, Paxton twice won re-election. In 2018, Paxton’s opponent was Democrat Justin Nelson – a well-respected Professor of Constitutional Law at the UT Law School and a former clerk for U.S. Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor. Paxton, however, had a (R) after his name and, in Texas, that was good enough to secure a win. Go figure.
While Paxton has been a reliable GOP attack dog, he has embarrassed our state for bringing excessively blatant partisan politics to an office that should be the chief legal officer for all of Texas. While that partisanship wasn’t illegal, numerous other actions were. The 20 impeachment counts included misuse of public resources, bribery, obstruction of justice, falsifying official records, conspiracy, and dereliction of duty. These were not minor charges.
While his guilt is frankly not in question, I was actually quite surprised by the overwhelming vote in the GOP-controlled Texas House on the 20 impeachment counts. Approximately 2/3 of the Republicans in the House voted with all of the Democrats to produce a 121-23 landslide in favor of the impeachment resolution. Even the GOP members of the House who spoke against the resolution focused mostly on process issues and on Paxton’s conservative bona fides. They seldom suggested that he was actually innocent of the charges.
Unlike impeachment at the federal level, Paxton was immediately suspended from his office pending a trial in the Texas Senate.
The Senate will vote on the rules for that trial on June 20. These rules will be extremely important as they will draw the trial boundaries for evidence, testimony, and participation. It remains to be seen how the rules will address such issues as possible conflicts of interest – including one State Senator who happens to be married to Paxton (!) and another State Senator who is a likely material witness. Unfortunately, the Senate committee charged with drafting the rules has a 5-2 GOP tilt and is led by a known Paxton ally. Fairness is not guaranteed.
The trial itself is scheduled to start on or before August 28. And it will be interesting.
There are only 31 members of the Texas Senate – 19 Republicans and 12 Democrats – with a 2/3 majority required to convict Paxton and permanently remove him from office. Assuming that all State Senators vote (and it’s unlikely that the rules will demand any recusals), 9 Republicans would need to join all of the Democrats to reach the 21-vote threshold for conviction. That’s a high bar.
The State Senate’s verdict will sadly have little to do with the facts of the case. As noted, there’s really no question that Paxton is guilty of most if not all of the impeachment counts and just one count would be quite sufficient for a conviction.
The problem is that the trial will not be conducted in a court of law. It will be conducted in a court of politicians and the verdict will boil down to a purely political calculation on the part of the 19 Republican State Senators.
While Paxton isn’t particularly well-liked by many of his GOP brethren, even his detractors recognize his political leverage. He already has the solid support of a few Texas Senators who would vote to acquit him right now with zero regard for any evidence that might be presented at the trial. The remainder will have the cover of vocal support for Paxton from both U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R) and the Orange Guy.
So, is there any chance of a conviction? My Magic 8 Ball currently says, “Reply hazy, try again.”
It is unlikely that many Republican State Senators would dare vote to convict Paxton unless they were absolutely sure that he would be convicted. If Paxton is returned to office, having a sitting AG as an enemy could be a political death sentence. Paxton would make their lives miserable in the Texas Senate and he’d back their opponents in their next primary election.
The best chance we have to get rid of Paxton is if the trial drives public opinion so far against him that enough Republican State Senators will be more worried about voter backlash than about Paxton’s possible revenge. That, however, implies that the rules committee defines a fair trial structure, that the case is perfectly presented as a slam-dunk for conviction, and that the public actually pays attention to the trial.
Hmm. On a second reading, my Magic 8 Ball now says, “Outlook not so good.”