While we’re just barely through the 2022 elections, I thought I’d take a very early look at the 2024 national landscape.
Candidates do matter… but only to a limited extent. There are many races across the board that simply won’t be competitive – regardless of the candidates. Indeed, a majority of the 2024 races won’t be competitive. That’s just the way it is.
I’ll revisit all of this at a much later date, but here’s my current take:
President
When discussing the proposed changes to the Democratic Primary Calendar, I briefly hit on the 2024 Electoral College landscape. Here it is again, along with a 2024 Electoral College heat map:
As previously noted, there are only ten states that are likely to be at all in-play in 2024, representing a total of only 120 out of 538 Electoral votes. Thus, a majority of the 2024 Presidential results are already in! As of right now, here’s the Electoral breakdown as I see it:
Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Virginia Lean D; Georgia and North Carolina Lean R; Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin are true Toss-Ups.
Republicans have more Solid Electoral votes; Democrats have more Solid + Lean Electoral votes. Both parties will need at least one or two of the Toss-Up states to win. (As a reminder, a Presidential “win” is 270 Electoral votes.)
The bottom line here is that Democrats need to build a Presidential ticket that can guarantee a win in the Lean D states and win at least some of the Toss-Up states. The ticket should not be AT ALL concerned about winning any Solid D state and should not bother even trying to win any Solid R state. Democrats need to learn that the popular vote JUST DOESN’T MATTER!!
I don’t care how well a ticket might do in California – the ticket will win that state and all of their Electoral votes. I don’t care how well a ticket might do in Florida – the ticket will lose that state and all of their Electoral votes. The magical Democratic ticket might well be Biden/Harris; it might not be. It’s just too early to tell. Personally, I don’t really care. I just want to win. Period.
U.S. Senate
One reason (of many) for the importance of the 2024 Presidency is the 2024 Senate. Republicans are heavy favorites in this playground. In this visual summary, the green states don’t have Senators up for election; the dark red and dark blue states are in the bag for the Republicans and Democrats candidates, respectively; the light blue and pink states Lean D and Lean R, respectively; the grey states are true Toss-Ups.
Of the 34 Senates seats up for election in 2024, 13 are Solid D and 10 are Solid R. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that six Senate seats currently held by Democrats are only Lean D and only one seat currently held by a Republican is Lean R. [ The lone Lean R is admittedly wishful thinking on my part. As a Texan, I’d dearly love to believe that Ted Cruz is beatable; As a data analyst, however, I just don’t see it happening. ]
The worse news is that all four of the Toss-Up Senate seats are currently held by Democrats.
The bottom line here is that Republicans have a MUCH better chance of flipping D seats than Democrats have of flipping R seats. Democrats will be stuck playing defense; Republicans will be playing offense. At the moment, the odds definitely favor Republicans taking control of the Senate in 2024.
U.S. House
The House is much tougher to handicap this far in advance. However, since the incoming Republican majority will be paper-thin, the House will definitely be up for grabs in 2024. While the vast majority of House seats will be Solid D or Solid R, there is a small middle ground where either party could win a given race in the right environment.
The bottom line here is that House candidates will matter and the top of the ticket will matter. In particular, Democrats will likely focus on the seats they lost in New York and California in 2022.
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Democrats will be focused on winning the White House and the House in 2024. Senate Democrats will sadly be reduced to limiting the damage, trying their best not to give Senate Republicans a super-majority.