While it would be logical to assume that the daily barrage of negative stories about Hershel Walker would be impacting the Georgia Senate race, I wanted to see if any available data would back up that assumption.
So, I took a quick peek today at the data gathered by TargetEarly for the Georgia Senate runoff election.
As I discussed on the day of the general election, TargetEarly analyzes publicly available early voter data and individual voter profiles to produce a fairly accurate picture of the state of an election during the early voting period.
Warnock ended up with 49.4% of the 2022 general election vote and TargetEarly’s model estimated that he won 50.8% of the total early votes. Five days prior to the general election, TargetEarly modeled Democratic early voters at 48.8%.
At five days prior to the runoff election, TargetEarly models early Democratic voters at 54.1%.
In short, Warnock appears to be beating his early voting performance in the general election. While that snapshot model is certainly no guarantee of a final result, it’s still good news.