I’ll weigh in further on the election results when things are a little more finalized. For now, I’ll simply note a general state of amusement.
I’m amused by all of the election “experts” busily spinning their predictions in light of actual results. Many are now actually claiming that they were right all along… within their margin-of-error. Wow. If their acceptable margins-of-error are in double digits, I’d love to invite them to my next poker game. The fact is that almost everyone was wrong. Republican predictions were wrong. Democratic predictions were wrong. Independent predictions were wrong.
I’m amused by the congratulatory responses that I’ve received pointing out the overall accuracy of my own predictions. While I’ll graciously accept that my models turned out to be pretty good, I really can’t take credit for the science of predictive data analytics. While I’ve never been shy about sharing my opinions on this blog, my election analyses weren’t based on opinions. They were based on data. I could well have made errors selecting or modeling that data (and, in a few cases, I did), but the data was the data.
I’m amused by the talking heads who want everyone to believe that political prognostication is a black art. It’s not. It’s a math-heavy science. My own very basic models used data that was easily available to anyone. A ton of other great data was out there but was, unfortunately, well beyond what my simple models could consume. You’d think that professional political analysts, with massive resources behind them, could do a much better job using complex models fed by the troves of available data. But no. Many of them just chose to blindly trust the consensus of other purported experts and/or chose to blindly ignore data that didn’t match their opinions and/or chose to blindly accept data that was obviously flawed. A very common error was the uncanny overuse of “polls” that were transparently funded by Republican campaigns and were conducted using truly laughable techniques… assuming they weren’t just created out of thin air. The truly independent polls, conducted using sane methodologies, were actually pretty accurate this cycle. The data folks behind these non-partisan polls learned from past mistakes and corrected for them. These good polls simply got buried by an avalanche of recycled crap.
I’m finally amused by my readers who think that I’m out celebrating the 2022 election results. Really?
- Although House Democrats managed to not lose as many seats as was generally expected, it looks like they’ll still lose control of the chamber. With a very thin majority, Republicans will have a tough time actually governing. However, the GOP will control the House agenda and the committees. The prospect of two years with constant votes to impeach Biden for breathing and constant Congressional hearings over partisan minutiae is not exactly a cause for celebration.
- New York Democrats managed to screw up their redistricting efforts so badly that Republicans won many more House seats than they should have. That quite possibly cost Democrats the chamber. The continued incompetence of the Democratic Party is not exactly a cause for celebration.
- At best, Senate Democrats will gain one seat. At worst, Senate Republicans will gain two seats. More likely, Senate control will once again come down to a nail-biter in Georgia. All of this and one of the best scenarios that Democrats can hope for is to end up back where we started? That’s not exactly a cause for celebration.
- Although many of the 2020-election-denying idiots on the 2022 ballot lost their elections, some 200 of them actually managed to win. The fact that any American citizen voted for any of them is not exactly a cause for celebration.
- Many voters across the country did choose sanity over chaos. However, the fact that American Democracy managed to clear such a low bar is not exactly a cause for celebration.
- Florida and Ohio have shifted even further to the right than they were before. It wasn’t that long ago that both were swing states. The loss of those big chunks of Electoral Votes is not exactly a cause for celebration.
- I live in Texas and our political landscape is unchanged. That’s not exactly a cause for celebration.
Okay, I’m done. I’m taking my amusement to a bar.