Yeah, yeah. I’ve been absent here. While my daily intentions have been to post something, reality has intervened on a regular basis. C’est la vie.
Anyway, with early voting for the mid-terms already in-progress, I felt the need to revisit the critical 2022 races. Unfortunately, I had to dig a tad deeper than I’d expected.
The news has certainly been rife with apocalyptic declarations for Democrats everywhere. Polls are showing a steep decline in Democratic support. Pundits across the political spectrum are predicting a bloody red wave. Democratic campaigns are sending out hourly emails that range from pride-free groveling to pre-emptive obituaries. (I’m on WAY too many campaign email lists.)
While I more-than-half expected my fresh analysis to line up with these overwhelming sentiments, it turns out that the skeptical little voice in my head was onto something.
The news appears to be nothing more than a giant echo chamber, largely devoid of independent analysis. Polls that have shown a massive Republican surge in recent weeks are largely Republican-funded. Pundits are incented to push a tight race narrative to increase their viewership / subscriber counts. Democratic campaigns seem to insanely believe that they’ll actually increase donations by repeatedly telling voters that they’re going to lose – which can quickly become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
WTF.
To be sure, even my data-driven methodology shows that Democrats have lost ground and, predictably, many races have tightened up as we approach Election Day. While Democrats are in nothing resembling a commanding position, they’re only guaranteed to lose across the board if they continue to close out their campaigns like they’ve already lost their elections. At this point, voters have made their choices. There are no more swing voters. Voters who haven’t yet picked a side simply aren’t likely to vote at all. Elections will now be won or lost based solely on turnout and voters will have little motivation to cast ballots in races where the candidate appears to have given up.
Here are the high-level take-aways from my own analyses:
U.S. House
Nothing has really changed here since I first weighed in on 2022. Republicans will take control of the House. While I don’t see as massive of a “red wave” as others, the GOP will end up with a solid majority in this chamber.
U.S. Senate
Even the election analysts that I respect (e.g. 538, Cook, Sabato) seem to overweight “expert” opinions and non-independent polls (to varying degrees) in their evaluations of Senate races. I’ll readily admit that my model was flawed if proven otherwise, but I still think Democrats have a very slight advantage here. To retain control of the Senate, Democrats need to win the races where my analysis says they currently have a slight edge PLUS win one of three true toss-up races or one of two races where Republicans have a slight edge.
State Legislatures
While I still don’t have the time, data, or desire to do a deep dive into control of state legislatures, it nevertheless remains an important consideration. Republican legislators in numerous swings states have been very public in their desires to appoint their own slate of Presidential Electors in 2024 regardless of who wins the popular vote in their respective states. (And, before someone accuses me of being too partisan, there has been no similar talk from Democrats. None.) The Supreme Court even seems poised to bless this blatantly undemocratic power play. In any case, my rough guess at the moment is that this cycle will see no major flips in the control of state legislatures for either party.
Governors
This is definitely a mixed bag but not necessarily the absolute disaster we’re being led to believe. Still, there are way too many toss-up Governor races in 2024 swing states for comfort (AZ, WI, NV). And there are another two races in 2024 swing states where Democrats have only a slight edge (MN, MI). As with the state legislatures, I’m very nervous about Republican Governors trying to declare a GOP presidential victory in their states even if Democrats win the popular vote. With very few exceptions, the GOP candidates for Governor are 2020 election deniers.
Secretaries of State
Despite many attempts to educate the public as to how these historically obscure offices can be used to single-handedly throw an election to a preferred party, these races are still met with significant voter apathy. The vast majority of the GOP candidates for these positions are 2020 election deniers – which doesn’t bode at all well for democracy. Unfortunately, since there isn’t a lot of good data readily available to handicap these races, I’ll simply list a few of the races that I’m following.
PLEASE PEOPLE: If you haven’t already voted early, do so now. While I understand the civic high that one can get by voting on Election Day, shit happens. Vote early and give yourself a backup plan to make sure your voice is heard.