Since I last weighed in, Democrats have slightly increased their chances of maintaining their paper-thin Senate majority in November. While it’s still too early to make definitive predictions, it is nice to see that a lot of election “experts” are catching up to my point of view and have at least stopped writing Democratic obituaries.
** trying not to break my arm while patting myself on the back **
Here’s my updated take on the ten competitive Senate races:
(Click for a larger image; use the back button to return.)
Republicans have nominated (or are close to nominating) the most extreme candidates they possibly could (Masters in AZ, Oz in PA, Buldoc in NH) and/or have nominated inexperienced candidates who are running clueless campaigns (Oz in PA, Walker in GA, Vance in OH). I hate to agree with Mitch McConnell, but “candidate quality” matters. It also hasn’t helped that Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) has been a laughably incompetent chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. In short, Republicans had a very good chance to lock up the Senate and they blew it. Can’t say I didn’t see that coming.
However, before Democrats start celebrating….
- A whole lot can happen between now and November. Democrats need to keep working each and every race and pray that the economy doesn’t take a nose dive right before the elections.
- Democrats need to take full advantage of this opportunity to slightly expand their majority now since 2024 won’t be at all pretty. By my count, a whopping 10 Senate Democrats running for re-election in 2024 will be facing somewhere between Lean R and Toss-Up environments. On the other side, ZERO Republican Senators up for re-election in 2024 will be facing anything worse than Lean R environments. In other words, Democrats are very likely to see a net loss of at least a few seats in 2024. Even if they over-perform this year, maintaining a majority in 2024 might be quite difficult.
See the contribution links at the end of my previous Senate post if you feel like pitching in.