Okay. Fine. I’ll post my two cents about 2024.
I remain convinced that Democrats first need to be concerned about Moore v. Harper, coming this Fall to a Supreme Court near you. I discussed this case within a previous post and I also posted my related suggestion for keeping the Court out of politics. I also remain convinced that a lack of attention to this case could so kneecap Democrats that their choice for 2024 won’t matter. Whoever it is will lose.
I’ll also be updating my posts on the 2022 races in the next few weeks as primary season ends. These elections are really where Democrats need to focus their attention after protecting the election process itself.
But sure. Since it keeps coming up, let’s talk 2024.
First, I really need to ask all of the Democrats who are so massively disappointed in Biden for one reason or another: Who the Hell did you think you were voting for? No, Biden is not a starry-eyed progressive. No, Biden is not a great communicator. Yes, Biden is prone to gaffes. Yes, the 79-year-old Biden seems a lot slower these days. Biden was and is no one’s perfect candidate. But please remember: We nominated Biden in 2020 for exactly two reasons: He was a decent person and he had the best shot at winning. And, folks, he did win. And he’s still a decent person. Democrats need to back off and offer him a little support.
Is Biden the right choice to be at the top of the 2024 ticket? It’s way too early to say he’s not. He saved us from that other guy and I’m going to give him the right to make a claim at another term. Of course he’s saying that he intends to run again. He’d otherwise be a lame duck. However, unlike his predecessor, he’s not stupid, he’s not delusional, and he’s not power-hungry. He has no reason to run again unless he and his competent political advisors are convinced he’ll have a better chance of winning the White House than another Democrat. And, despite what everyone else says, NO ONE knows how things are going to look going into 2024.
In mid-to-late 2023, we should ask a few questions: Is Biden healthy? Has another Democrat risen to be a top tier contender? Has the economy improved? Has war spread outside of Ukraine? Are we deep in Pandemic Part II? What new crisis has grabbed everyone’s attention? Who’s likely to lead the Republican ticket? Who controls the Senate? Just how much has the Supreme Court weighted elections to favor Republicans? When we can answer some of these questions, we can then decide who should lead the Democratic ticket.
For now, this an interesting academic exercise – evaluating a world that looks a lot like it does now but where Biden decides not to run again. Cool.
So, right off the bat, I’m going to eliminate a TON of prominent possibilities that fall into three groups:
- Candidates whose negatives generally outweigh their positives and/or whose candidacy will excite almost no one. This large set includes such names as Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Bernie Sanders, Stacey Abrams, Hillary Clinton, etc. A lot of these folks had their shot and they flamed out. Name recognition is not always a good thing.
- Candidates who hail from solidly Democratic environments. These people may know how to play to their base but they likely can’t connect with independents and disenchanted Republicans. This set includes such names as CA Gov. Gavin Newsom, NJ Gov. Phil Murphy, NY Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, etc. With apologies to my progressive readers, purity leads to defeat and, personally, I’d rather win.
- Candidates who might be very interesting choices but who simply won’t run. This set includes such names as Michelle Obama, Jon Stewart, Oprah Winfrey, Mark Cuban, Bill McRaven, etc. While it’s fun to briefly consider some “what if” scenarios – particularly with respect to Michelle Obama – reality’s a bitch. These folks just don’t want the job.
So who’s left? It’s likely someone from left field.
In October of 1991, an unknown Democratic Governor announced his candidacy for President – just 13 months prior to the 1992 presidential election. He then proceeded to lose 10 of the first 11 primaries/caucuses. And yet, Bill Clinton eventually won both the Democratic nomination and the presidency. At 28 months prior to the 2024 election, we don’t know crap.
Still, since I promised my opinion, here’s a list of seven names that I’m currently watching, in no particular order. At the moment, there’s just not an obvious choice. You may notice the list is heavy on Governors. Not only do they have the appropriate executive experience, but the office has often proven to be a solid springboard for winning Presidential bids.
- IL Gov. J.B. Pritzker. At 57, Pritzker is somewhere between a young gun and an experienced politician. He’s passionate and his unpolished big-guy persona exudes a no-nonsense “How ‘bout we just get shit done?” vibe. While he’s up for re-election this year, he’s the prohibitive favorite and has definitely been concurrently laying the groundwork for a 2024 run if the opportunity arises. Pritzker is the billionaire heir of the Hyatt Hotels fortune and, if the former guy is the Republican candidate, I really like this matchup. Chicago is in the running to host the 2024 DNC convention – which would be a great way to launch him into a general election race.
- MI Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. As a 50-year-old female swing state Governor, Whitmer checks a whole lot of boxes. She’s a sane moderate who has been willing to hold her ground when challenged from both her right and her left. She’s also a decent, if not particularly inspiring, speaker who could likely improve with proper coaching. If she wins her 2022 re-election bid (which is NOT a slam dunk), her 2024 stock rises. If she loses, she’s off the list.
- KY Gov. Andy Beshear. Beshear’s 59% approval rating makes him the most popular Democratic Governor – which is doubly impressive given that KY is a deep red state. He faces an off-year re-election in 2023 and Republicans will be gunning for him. If he manages a win, his stock will rise as a future Democratic leader. While he currently claims he won’t run for President in 2024, he could easily change his mind. And, at 44, he’s got time to wait for another cycle.
- NC Gov. Roy Copper. Copper has won repeatedly in a southern red state, demonstrating a cross-party appeal that’s pretty rare. That alone makes him a contender. However, while he’s smart and coherent, he’s just not very charismatic. He looks like he’s going to try to sell you life insurance and, at 65, he’s not exactly the future of the Democratic party.
- OH Sen. Sherrod Brown. Brown is a popular Senator in a swing state with fans in both the progressive and moderate wings of the Democratic party. However, he’s up for re-election in 2024 and, at 69, he’s probably more valuable overall running to keep his Senate seat.
- Domestic Policy Advisor Susan Rice. Few people have a better resumé than Susan Rice. A Rhodes Scholar with a doctorate in international relations, she has held senior positions in three different Democratic administrations, including UN Ambassador, National Security Advisor, and Domestic Policy Advisor. She’s never run for political office, though, and her academic, non-personal approach has given her a reputation for being unfriendly. Still, with the right campaign staff supporting her, a 57-year-old, whip-smart, black woman at the top of the ticket could work.
- Sec. of Transportation Pete Buttigieg. Mayor Pete is definitely the best communicator on this list and, as another Rhodes Scholar, he could also challenge Rice as the smartest candidate. Could he use a bit more experience? Certainly. And, as was true in 2020, I sadly still don’t believe that the country is quite ready to elect a gay President. However, at only 40, he’s a major player on the Democratic bench and he deserves consideration. For 2024, I think Buttigieg could be a good VP candidate and making a run at the top spot keeps his name in that mix.
One final note: There’s a long-shot scenario worth mentioning in the context of 2024. Liz Cheney is very likely going to lose her House Republican primary on 8/16. However, anyone who’s watched her work on the January 6 committee knows she’s not likely to just fade away thereafter. She knows she wouldn’t have a prayer of winning the Republican nomination for President so she won’t try that. What she might do, though, is run as a third-party candidate if the former guy is the Republican nominee. She’s stated that she will do everything in her power to keep him out of the White House and an independent run might just siphon off just enough Republican votes to tilt the swing states to the Democrat.
But, of course, if the Supreme Court rules that swing state legislatures can just ignore the popular vote and send their own people to the Electoral College, we’re back to where I started this post.
<sigh>