Parenthetical Politics

(Political Ramblings from a Little Left of Center)

State Elections 2022 (2)

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[Part 2 of 3]

During most election cycles, I remain only moderately aware of internal state races that aren’t in Texas.  This time, however, I started looking at races in other states that could impact national elections.  While it’s enormously sad that the conduct of democratic elections has become partisan, it is what it is.  The prevalence of 2020 election-denying Republicans running in 2022 means that we must consider whether state officials might try to overturn a valid 2024 election in their states simply because they don’t like the result.  This three-part series looks at State Legislatures, Governors, and Secretaries of State.

Governors

Many Governors have the power to appoint at least a temporary replacement if one of their state’s U.S. Senate seats becomes vacant.  In a split Senate, even one such appointment could swing control from one party to the other.  More importantly, Governors often play a role in certifying election results in their states.  In states where both legislative chambers are controlled by one party, Governors complete the “trifecta” of total state control.  Many party candidates for Governor are still TBD, but even my very early research verified that political dysfunction in America is limited neither by geography nor by party.

Of the 36 Governors races in November, there are 17 that I currently find “interesting” from at least some perspective.  They are ordered below by the likelihood of a Democratic win (although things will undoubtedly change before November):

(Click for a larger image; use the back button to return.)

A few brief notes on the races above:

  • Massachusetts:  This open seat is a great pickup opportunity for Democrats.  The Democratic candidate is likely to be MA AG Maura Healey; the Republican candidate is likely to be former state Rep. Geoff Diehl, a 2020 election-denying idiot.  MA is not a swing state and Democrats control both legislative chambers.  However, this is low hanging fruit and a loss here would just be embarrassing.  Both primaries: 9/6.
  • Colorado:  Polis is fairly popular and should win re-election.  His GOP opponent will be either Heidi Ganahl or Greg Lopez, a 2020 election-denying idiot.  Republican Primary: 6/28.
  • Pennsylvania:  This open seat is a good pickup opportunity for Democrats.  Shapiro is the PA AG.; Mastriano is a 2020 election-denying idiot who attended the Jan. 6 “rally” in DC.  PA is a swing state and Republicans currently control both legislative chambers.
  • Maryland:  This should be a pickup opportunity for Democrats… unless they self-destruct. There are TEN Democrats running in the primary (prompting one Democrat to opine that “the ballot’s gonna be longer than a CVS receipt”).  Many are well-known, but none have yet broken out of the pack.  That’s bad.  The good news is that MD Republicans are also dysfunctional.  The GOP nominee will be either the sane Kelly Schulz, a former MD Secretary of Commerce, or state Del. Daniel Cox, a 2020 election-denying idiot who has the endorsement of the former President.  While Schulz could well win the general election, the MD GOP is more likely to nominate Cox.  Both primaries: 7/19.
  • Minnesota:  Walz should win reelection, but former state Sen. Scott Jensen leads a 9-way race for the GOP nomination and cannot be discounted.  MN is a swing state and the legislative chambers are currently split between Democrats and Republicans.  Republican Primary: 8/9.
  • Oregon:  Kotek is slightly favored here only because OR is a sold blue state.  Drazan has pointedly refused to answer whether she thinks the 2020 election was stolen.  In my book, that’s worse than at least taking a stand.  Betsy Johnson, a former state senator is running as an independent and it’s unclear who that helps or hurts.
  • Michigan:  Whitmer was looking to be one of the most vulnerable Democratic Governors in 2022 after the former President made her a GOP priority.  MI Republicans, however, can’t seem to stop shooting at their own feet.  Three of Whitmer’s Republican opponents, including once front-runner Detroit Police Chief James Craig, have been disqualified due to forged candidacy petition signatures.  This from the party of “election integrity.”  Heh.  The new primary leaders are conservative pundit Tudor Dixon and Ryan Kelley – a 2020 election-denying idiot who was just arrested by the FBI on charges related to the Jan. 6 “rally” in DC.  MI is a swing state and Republicans currently control both legislative chambers.  Republican primary: 8/2.
  • Connecticut:  Lamont should win re-election, but it may be close. His likely GOP opponent is Bob Stefanowski, in a rematch of the 2018 Governor’s race.  Republican Primary: 8/9.
  • Maine:  Mills should squeak through to re-election, but former GOP Gov. Lepage can’t be written off.  The good news for Democrats is that this race will likely be won in the middle while LePage is a very polarizing, 2020 election-denying idiot.  The bad news for Democrats is that a long-shot independent recently entered the race who is likely to drain mostly Democratic votes.
  • New Mexico:  Grisham should win re-election but will face former TV meteorologist Mark Ronchetti as the GOP nominee.  Ronchetti will be a strong challenger who has good name recognition in NM.
  • Wisconsin:  Former Lt. Gov Rebecca Kleefisch was the favorite for the GOP nomination until the former President endorsed extremist construction exec Tim Michels.  With a clear field, Kleefisch had a very good chance of beating Evers.  Now, with the GOP likely fighting themselves into August, this race is a big question mark.  WI is a swing state and Republicans currently control both legislative chambers.  Republican primary: 8/9.
  • Nevada:  This election will be determined by how the Las Vegas economy is doing in November.  Whether it will be fair to blame or credit Sisolak will be completely beside the point.  His GOP opponent will be one of three front-runners: Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, former NV Sen. Dean Heller, and Reno lawyer Joey Gilbert.  Lombardo has the endorsement of the former President; Heller has statewide name recognition; Gilbert, with the NV GOP party endorsement. is a 2020 election-denying idiot who attended the Jan. 6 “rally” in DC.  NV is a swing state.  Republican Primary: 6/14.
  • Arizona:  This open seat is a toss-up.  Secretary of State Katie Hobbs is the likely Democratic candidate.  The GOP nominee is a bit more uncertain, but is likely to be Kari Lake, a 2020 election-denying idiot with the endorsement of the former President.  AZ is a swing state and Republicans currently control both legislative chambers.  Both Primaries: 8/2.
  • Georgia:  Abrams is a formidable Democratic candidate.  However, Kemp won the GOP primary despite the former President actively campaigning against him based on a personal 2020 grudge.  It is quite possible that grudge will spill into the general election campaign – with an unpredictable impact.  Republicans currently control both legislative chambers.
  • Kansas:  Kelly won in deep red KS against a horrible 2018 Republican opponent.  The GOP isn’t making the same mistake in 2022 and their likely candidate is the relatively popular KS AG Derek Schmidt.  KS is not a swing state.  A win would be great, but it’s not a huge national priority.  Republican primary: 8/2.
  • Florida:  DeSantis will unfortunately win re-election.  His Democratic opponent will be either Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried or former Gov. Charlie Crist.  A win would be great, but it’s not a national priority.  FL is not a swing state – despite constant Democratic claims otherwise.  Democratic primary: 8/23.
  • Texas:   Entertainment factors aside, Abbott will unfortunately wipe the floor with O’Rourke.  However, it’s my home state and perhaps Beto can attract Democratic voters that can help in down-ballot races.  TX is not a swing state.  A win would be great, but it’s not a national priority.  Yet.

The “Dem Goal” column reflects my current opinion of where national Democrats should spend their time and money.  In order, they should:

  1. make very sure they hold five swing states (PA, MN, MI, WI, NV).
  2. play offense to win an open swing state that currently has a Republican Governor (AZ).
  3. defend five states where they currently have a non-overwhelming advantage (CO, OR, CN, ME, NM).
  4. win two blue states that currently have Republican Governors (MA, MD).
  5. try to to beat an incumbent Republican Governor (GA).
  6. try to keep a state they now hold but may well lose (KS).
  7. pay attention to two major R states to see if a miracle might happen (FL, TX).

For those residing in the above states, voting is critical.  Unsurprisingly, money also helps.  Contributing to individual campaigns is always an option, particularly in one’s home state.  However, the Democratic Governor’s Association is a good choice for a one-shot donation to provide support across multiple races.