Yeah, it’s been a while. There’s certainly no shortage of potential blog topics – upcoming elections, the probable demise of Roe, the war in Ukraine, the Jan 6 committee’s work, school shootings & gun control, the economic roller-coaster, etc., etc. – and I certainly have no shortage of strong opinions. So. No excuses. I’m just going to try again.
It’s still too early to handicap the 2022 Senate races given that the candidates haven’t all been finalized. However, since most professional political pundits seem so unreservedly certain of a Republican takeover of the Senate, I felt compelled to do my own research.
My contrarian bottom line: Democrats may have nothing resembling a lock on retaining Senate control, but neither are things all doom and gloom on their side of the aisle.
There are 35 Senate seats up for election in 2022 but, by my count, only 10 of them are at all competitive. Five are current Democratic seats; five are current Republican seats (three of which are being vacated by retiring R incumbents). If the November split of these 10 seats is also 50/50, Democrats will retain their paper-thin control of the Senate. But, of course, it’s not that simple.
Given my political preferences, I should state that my analysis is not simply wishful thinking. If it was, I’d also be predicting that Democrats have a remote chance to retain the House in November. I’m not and they don’t. Rather, I’m objectively looking at early Senate polls, state voting histories & trends, new state-specific voting restrictions, turnout projections, incumbency advantages, fundraising, etc. The most subjective components are candidate analyses – but even there I made an attempt to consider the perspectives of each state’s likely voters.
I did discount the conventional wisdom that the President’s party generally loses mid-term elections. While numerous House races may reflect that trend, I don’t see it as a major factor for these 10 Senate races. The outsize influence of the former President in this election makes him at least as much of a lightning rod as the current President. Since neither are particularly popular outside of their bases, I’m calling that variable a wash.
And, yes, I considered “showing my work” but my collection of spreadsheet tabs isn’t at all pretty and this post is already way too long.
Okay, enough prelude. Here’s my summary of the 10 races, ordered by the current likelihood of a Democratic win:
(Click for a larger image; use the back button to return.)
A few brief notes on the races above:
- Colorado: Bennet should win, but his race gets much easier if Ron Hanks, a 2020 election-denying idiot, continues to be favored for the Republican nomination against a sane Joe O’Dea. Republican Primary: 6/28.
- Arizona: Similarly, Kelly should win, but his race gets easier if his opponent is not the current AZ AG Mark Brnovich. Brnovich committed the sin of refusing to simply overturn the 2020 election results in AZ – incurring the wrath of a former President who is actively undermining his campaign. Unfortunately for Republicans, Brnovich is the candidate who would have the best chance against Kelly in the general election – despite some serious R money being otherwise thrown around here. Once Brnovich loses the primary, this race might move to the Likely D column. Republican Primary: 8/2.
- Pennsylvania: This open seat is the best D pickup opportunity. John Fetterman, while not the perfect Democratic candidate, is non-traditional enough to make waves and command news cycles – assuming he stays healthy after some recent heart issues. As PA’s current Lt. Governor, he’s proven he can win a statewide election and he understands his electorate. Neither of his potential rivals (“Dr.” Oz and David McCormick) have ever run for public office and both only recently moved to PA to carpetbag this election. If the snake oil salesman comes out on top of the ugly Republican primary, Fetterman’s chances get even better. Republican Primary recount in-progress.
- New Hampshire: Democrats lucked out when popular Republican Governor Chris Sununu opted out of this race. While he would have cleared the GOP field and beaten Hasan, it’s much less clear if any of the five R candidates have a chance to win. Republicans will be fighting each other into September while Hassan gets to immediately begin her general election campaign. Still, since NH is a purple state and Hassan won her seat in 2016 by less than 1% of the vote, this race only barely gets ranked as a Lean D. Republican Primary: 9/13.
- Georgia: Warnock is a good incumbent candidate who knows how to work a crowd. Walker was a good running back who could mow down the crowd but is quite likely to fall flat on his face in a political debate. Thus far, even in softball interviews, his answers have been laughably nonsensical. If this wasn’t Georgia, the race wouldn’t even be close. However, the state is solid red and Republicans made it more difficult to vote after Democrats surprised everyone (including me) by taking both Senate seats in 2020. On the other hand, the popular Stacey Abrams at the top of the GA ticket will attract Democratic voters even if she loses her race for Governor. This race is a true Toss-Up.
- Wisconsin: Johnson, the Republican incumbent, is remarkably unpopular and wasn’t expected to run for re-election. That decision is the only reason this race is competitive. Democrats, however, can’t get their act together and will likely be fighting each other into August. The current top two D candidates are Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes and Milwaukee Bucks exec Alex Lasry. Both are capable but neither are yet setting this purple state on fire. Until they do (or don’t), I rate this race a Toss-Up. Democratic Primary: 8/9.
- Nevada: This will be the most difficult seat for Democrats to hold. Cortez Mastro, the first Latina Senator in American history, has the benefits of incumbency and she’s a competent fighter. However, Republicans are quickly rallying around former NV AG Adam Laxalt. Laxalt has endorsements from all corners of the GOP (quite a feat these days), has proven he can win statewide in a purple state, and comes from political royalty (he’s the grandson of popular former NV Gov & Sen. Paul Laxalt). I thus currently put this race in the Lean R column. Republican Primary: 6/14.
- Ohio: Had popular Sen. Rob Portman not decided to retire, this seat would have remained safely in the R column. As it is, Republicans did themselves no favors by selecting the odd J.D. Vance as their substitute nominee. Josh Mandel would have likely been unbeatable in the general election, but he couldn’t survive against the former President’s endorsement of Vance. Still, this is a very red state and Tim Ryan, the Democratic nominee with good statewide name recognition, has a huge hill to climb.
- North Carolina: Beasley is a good all-around candidate and Budd is another 2020 election-denying idiot. However, this is North Carolina and, despite polls showing a tightening race, a Democratic win here isn’t very likely.
- Florida: The party primaries aren’t until 8/23 but the race will be between Demings and Rubio. Pundits are predicting a close race here since Demings has an impressive resume and is an excellent candidate. But let’s be real: This is Florida. For all sorts of reasons, Rubio is going to win. The best Democrats can hope to do here is to force Republicans to spend some money to defend a seat in a very expensive state – assuming they can do so without spending a ton themselves.
The “Dem Goal” column reflects my current opinion of where Democrats should spend their time & money. In order, they should:
- make sure they hold the three D seats where they currently have a non-overwhelming advantage (CO, AZ, NH).
- defend a toss-up race for a seat they now hold (GA).
- play offense to win a Republican seat where there is currently a non-overwhelming D advantage (PA).
- play offense to win a toss-up Republican seat (WI).
- try to defend a seat they now hold but may well lose (NV).
- put in an effort to win three other R seats and hope for a miracle (OH, NC, FL).
Democrats can maintain the current 50/50 Senate split with 1-3 while 4-5 provide a cushion. 6 is mostly intended to keep Republicans busy elsewhere… but miracles do happen.
Of course, we still have almost six months before the election. Things will change. As of now, though, Democrats have a decent chance to retain control of the Senate and could even expand their majority. Unfortunately, they could also lose it.
One way to help is with money. Small amounts add up and there are numerous ways to donate. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Senate Majority PAC are possibilities, but both spread their money perhaps a bit too thin. The Swing Left PAC’s Senate fund seems to be targeting most of the right races and is a decent option for a one-shot donation – albeit with some overhead. The best option is to directly contribute to the individual campaigns of the Democrats noted above. Google a candidate’s name followed by “campaign” to donate via their campaign websites (likely using the ActBlue engine).