Of course it’s too early to handicap the 2022 Senate elections. Things change and shit happens. However, since a net gain of a single Senate seat in 2022 will give Republicans control of the chamber, it’s definitely not too early to start worrying about the landscape.
- The Bad News: Historically, the party that wins the White House has about a 70% chance of losing Senate seats in the subsequent mid-term election.
- The Good News: The current board very slightly favors Democrats in 2022.
Technically, there are 34 Senate seats on the 2022 table. In reality, only nine of them are at all competitive at the moment. I say “at the moment” because there are a ton of unknowns this far out. The competitive landscape could be changed by:
- Deaths or as-yet-unannounced retirements of incumbents.
- Superstar or lackluster candidates from either party.
- A 2022 state-of-the-union that is either outstanding or pathetic.
- Trump-backed far-right candidates winning Republican primaries in competitive states who might be more vulnerable in the general election. (Far-left candidates are less likely to be a factor in competitive states, but that’s also a possibility.)
Here are the nine 2022 Senate races that I’m currently watching.
(Click for a larger image; use the back button to return.)
Status is my current analysis; Dem Goal is my current recommendation; the order reflects the order in which I’d throw money… if I was throwing money this early… which I’m not.
In summary, there are currently no easy pick-up opportunities for Republicans this cycle. On the other hand, Republicans will be defending three seats that are definitely competitive.
FWIW, here’s my brief take on each of these races:
- Arizona: Sen. Kelly gets to defend the seat he just won in a special election. Arizona is definitely a purple state but Kelly showed he was a good candidate. Republican Gov. Ducey’s recent decision to not challenge Kelly helped Democrats a lot.
- Georgia: Ditto. Sen. Warnock also won a special election, Georgia is purple, and Warnock is good.
- New Hampshire: While Biden won here by a wide margin, Sen. Hassan won her Senate seat in 2016 by only 0.1%. If Republican Gov. Sununu or former Republican Sen. Ayotte run against her, this race could become more competitive.
- Nevada: Sen. Cortez Masto is currently favored to retain her seat, but if Republican Gov. Sandoval decides to run against her, this race becomes more competitive.
- Pennsylvania: Sen. Toomey’s retirement makes this race competitive.
- North Carolina: Sen. Burr’s retirement makes this race competitive.
- Wisconsin: Sen. Johnson isn’t very popular and is apparently considering retirement. The race is competitive in either case.
- Ohio: Sen. Portman’s retirement makes this race competitive. If Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan runs, this could move to a Toss Up.
- Florida: Sen. Rubio is heavily favored and, unless Democrats find a great candidate, this race could easily move off of my radar.