I previously posted my skepticism that our nation could find any common ground upon which to unify. Each day’s news verifies that opinion.
Some on the far-right are again making explicit calls for civil war as Democrats display the audacity to pursue the agenda upon which Biden was elected. Conversely, some on the far-left expect their party’s razor-thin majority to produce a progressive’s wet dream, despite that not being the agenda upon which Biden was elected.
Since a Second Civil War doesn’t seem like a particularly good idea, I thought I’d give some brief thought to a less bloody separation. While I’m certainly not claiming that an American divorce is anywhere in the neighborhood of a decent option, contemplation of the extreme shines some unfortunate light on the scope of our polarization problem. I’ve already spent too many cycles on this than I should have, but it’s an interesting academic exercise.
Consider if you will….
A division of the United States into two independent nations: the Democratic States of America (DSA) and the Confederate Republic of America (CRA).
Below is my attempt to quickly define the separate entities based on the apparent majority opinions in both camps.
To simplify matters for this thought experiment, the separation would be along state lines – allowing existing state and local governments to function relatively unchanged within new federal frameworks. Each state would optimally be able to chose the country to which they belong. However, for my purposes, I’ll simply assign states to a country based largely on 2020 Presidential preferences – with the notable exception of granting Georgia to the CRA purely for geographical convenience. Splitting the states into Biden and Trump camps (modulo Georgia) gives the CRA 26 states and the DSA 24 states.
Thus, the big picture looks like this:
(Click for a larger image; use the back button to return.)
American Union
First, acknowledging that an American breakup would make Brexit look like summer camp, we’d start with both countries belonging to an American Union (AU). The AU (an EU-lite) would initially be a short-lived entity with perhaps a three-year lifespan that could be shortened or extended only upon mutual agreement. During the AU transition period, the AU would function as the U.S. federal government does today. However, all AU laws, executive orders, and court rulings would be subject to veto by either the DSA or the CRA – making it imperative that the two countries finalize their divorce as quickly as possible.
All state borders would be open within the AU during the transition period. People and corporations would be free to relocate to any state in the country of their choice during this time and there would be a temporary free-trade agreement between the two countries. All military personnel would be free to serve the country of their choice by requesting duty station changes as appropriate.
The transition period would allow the two countries to finalize the details of their governments, ratify constitutions, and agree on a division of current U.S. resources. For simplicity, all current federal resources that are not physically tied to a given state would be evenly split between the two countries (including nuclear weapons). The national debt would also be evenly split.
Both countries could choose to join existing international entities (e.g. United Nations, NATO, and NAFTA) as each desires, but some bilateral treaties and trade agreements would also seem appropriate (e.g. an Open Sky agreement and cooperation in the space program). A free trade agreement would be optimal but likely elusive. Some mutually-beneficial arrangement could also possibly give the CRA access to the Pacific in exchange for traversal rights through the CRA between the geographically separate parts of the DSA. In any case, a permanent, severely downsized version of the AU could be considered as an umbrella for all bilateral agreements and Washington D.C. could become the AU’s home.
Democratic States of America
The DSA features a strong federal government. Briefly, …
- Federal Structure: Elimination of the Electoral College with the President elected by popular vote. The Senate remains as-is with two Senators per state but with a Constitutional 60% vote requirement for most legislation and judicial appointments. The House concept remains but with districts drawn by independent commissions w/ set rules and with minimal Representatives decided by the smallest state (1) and apportioned accordingly to other states by population. Supreme Court Justices are term-limited to 15 years, Senators to 12 years, and Representatives to 10 years.
- Health Care: Universal single-payer health care at the federal level with Medicare, Medicaid, and the ACA rolled in.
- Education: Free federally-directed public education through junior college or trade school; free 4-year college and graduate programs in return for military or public service.
- Finance: Retain U.S. financial systems with continuation of the Federal Reserve and international monetary involvement.
- Federal Taxes: Progressive personal income tax plus a wealth tax. Capital gains are taxed as ordinary income. Corporate tax rates are increased.
- Gun Controls: Extensive federal background checks with a federal registry and federal carry laws. Personal ownership of some assault weapons is banned outright and some firearms require additional background checks with more restrictive carry laws.
- Voting Rights: Federally-mandated, broad requirements for voter eligibility.
- Immigration: Path to citizenship for all undocumented immigrants. DACA becomes established law. Immigration welcome.
- Abortion: Legal in the first trimester and legal thereafter for defined health reasons.
- Environment: Focus on renewable energy with strong environmental regulations.
- Trade: Globalist approach using multiple international free-trade agreements and a limited use of tariffs.
- Foreign Affairs: International approach with strong alliances. Almost all military operations are conducted through alliances.
- Capital: Denver.
- Pre-Split Statistics:
- # States = 24
- U.S. Electoral Votes = 286
- GDP = 13.8 Trillion
- Population = 178 Million
- White = 59%
- College-Educated = 34%
Confederate Republic of America
The CRA features a weak federal government. Briefly, …
- Federal Structure: Retention of the basic U.S. structure, leaving the Electoral College, Senate, House, and Judicial branch largely as-is.
- Healthcare: Rely on optional commercial individual health insurance managed at the state level. Eliminate the ACA and Medicaid at the federal level. Keep Medicare at the federal level, but move some current coverage to commercially available supplemental plans.
- Education: Give states total control of and responsibility for education within their borders with no federal involvement whatsoever.
- Finance: Eliminate the Federal Reserve and return to the gold standard.
- Federal Taxes: Flat personal income tax; no corporate tax.
- Gun Controls: No federal limitations or controls on firearm purchases. Open and concealed carry privileges granted by any state are recognized throughout the CRA.
- Voting Rights: States have full control over voter eligibility.
- Immigration: Deportation of all undocumented immigrants. DACA repealed. Border wall completed between Texas and Mexico. Immigration discouraged.
- Abortion: Always illegal with no exceptions.
- Environment: Focus on fossil fuels with extremely limited environmental regulations.
- Trade: Protectionist approach using tariffs; limited international free-trade agreements.
- Foreign Affairs: Largely isolationist, America-first approach with weakened international ties. Almost all military operations are conducted unilaterally.
- Capital: Dallas.
- Pre-Split Statistics:
- # States = 26
- U.S. Electoral Votes = 252
- GDP = 9.2 Trillion
- Population = 153 Million
- White = 63%
- College-Educated = 28%
Brief Analysis
The DSA/CRA rabbit hole is ripe for further exploration but, for now, I’ll only make three interpretive statements:
- Even if we only considered real issues and not political personalities, the two countries would have wildly divergent views of just about everything Half of Americans would likely prefer to live in the DSA; half would prefer the CRA. A middle path may be possible for the United States, but the road to compromise will be difficult at best.
- Personally, I’d have to move. I suspect that many of the residents of my blue pod in Austin would have to leave Texas and the CRA.
- It seems fairly obvious to me that the DSA would be the most sustainable independent country over time. I’ll accept that other interpretations may be plausible (albeit wrong). Perhaps I’ll write a future history novel someday. Or not.