Last night’s Trump-incited mob takeover of the U.S. Capitol overshadowed some rather significant political bottom lines:
- Joe Biden will be sworn in as President on January 20.
- The dual Senate wins in Georgia will create a 50/50 split in that chamber. Since VP Harris will be able to break any party-line votes, Democrats will have effective control of the Senate.
- Democrats will retain control of the House with a 51.3% majority.
Thus, in less than two weeks, Democrats will have command – albeit a very fragile command – of both the Executive and Legislative branches of government. More importantly, the Cult of Trump will command neither branch.
Cool.
As a result:
- Biden will have a much easier time getting his cabinet picks approved.
- Neither chamber will be wasting time and money pursuing idiotic election investigations for the sake of political theater.
- Democrats will be able to fill judicial openings to make up a little ground on the Republican court-packing accomplished over the past four years. (Note, by the way, that I will be just as critical of unqualified Democratic picks as I was of unqualified Republican picks.)
However, it’s not like Democrats will be able to run completely amok.
- The Supreme Court will remain firmly conservative for the foreseeable future. In fact, a few of the current Justices are well beyond a conservative judicial philosophy and are blatantly partisan Republicans.
- Pelosi’s majority in the House is paper thin and Schumer will have nowhere near the control over Democratic Senators that McConnell had over Republican Senators. While there will be some party-line votes in the new Congress, bipartisan solutions will at least be a possibility.
- There are many institutionalist Democrats in the Senate. There will be no elimination of the filibuster. Republicans will retain an effective veto on all but confirmations and a few budget bills passed by reconciliation.
- There are many moderate Democrats in both chambers. There will be no wholesale majority move to the far left. There will be no expansion of the Supreme Court.
- Intra-party conflicts will impact the ability of Democrats to put a majority together on anything. In addition, any death, resignation, serious illness, or simple absence could completely change the Congressional math.
In short, effective federal government will still be difficult at best and will require cooperation across the board. I’ve decided to be cautiously optimistic for no reason whatsoever. I’m just tired of being mad.
On the other hand, we must not forget that Trump is still the President at the moment and he can still wreck considerable havoc on our nation before he departs.
Thirteen days and counting…