As promised in my previous post, I took a second (admittedly quick) look at the Texas State House races. This chamber remains the best and only hope for Democrats to have any voice at all in Texas’ upcoming redistricting efforts.
The good news is that things have improved since my April analysis and I now see Democrats as favored to add seats in 2020. The bad news is that Democrats still need to fill an inside straight flush on the river to take control. It’s doable. It’s just not likely.
Democrats are slightly favored to keep all of their current seats and flip four Republican seats. Another four Republican seats could go either way. Unfortunately, even if Democrats lose none of their current D seats and sweep all eight R seats that Republicans aren’t favored to win, they would still be one seat shy of the nine flips necessary to barely win the chamber. Thus, in the table below, I’ve identified three Lean R seats that appear to be the best opportunities for Democrats to grab that additional seat. <Click the table below for a larger version; hit the back button to return here.>
