Since I last wrote about the 2020 Senate races, much has changed and I suspect more changes are in store. The full extent of the backlash over the GOP’s rush to fill Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Supreme Court seat isn’t yet known. At the moment, though, control of the chamber appears to be a toss-up.
Democrats need a net gain of three Senate seats if Biden/Harris wins or a net gain of four seats if Trump/Pence wins. While I unfortunately need to assume that Democrats will lose the Alabama seat, all other Democratic incumbents now appear to be in pretty good shape. Thus, Democrats need to flip five GOP seats to guarantee a Senate majority.
Based on my analysis, Democrats are currently favored to flip three seats that Lean D. Another three seats are Toss-Ups and Democrats need to flip at least two of them. Thus, these six races are where Democratic focus (i.e. money) could best be applied now. I’ll expand on the money issue in my next post.
I’ve also identified an additional four races which I currently consider to be Stretch goals but which might also be deserving of some attention. While these are longer shots, throwing money at Democrats running against such people as Mitch McConnell and Lindsay Graham just feels good. I also suspect that some of these races may soon move into the Toss-Up category.
Beyond the above ten races, I note a few other races that some consider to be in-play, but that aren’t yet “practically” in-play from my perspective. Within this group, I’d love to suggest a stronger defense of the relatively safe Democratic seats and a stronger offense to take the relatively safe Republican seats. However, money needs to be spent where it can do the most good.
The races are presented here in my current order of importance using the same structure and methodology as previously discussed. Click on the table below to display a larger version; hit the back button to return here.
