Joe Biden recently announced the formation of his VP selection committee. I’m hurt that I wasn’t asked to participate, but I thought I’d add my two cents anyway.
Since Biden already announced that his pick will be a woman, that considerably narrows the field. I’ve identified thirteen women that, at some point, have been touted as a potential VP selection by either Biden himself or by someone in his inner circle. While Biden could certainly pick someone not on this list, it’s doubtful. Trial balloons are always a good idea.
I then defined a model for the analysis based on ten weighted criteria and assigned each candidate a letter grade in each category. For grading purposes, I split the women into five groups: Governors, Senators, U.S. Representatives, State Representatives, and Influencers. Some of the grades were assigned based on known facts while other grades were purely my judgement calls. (Alternative opinions are certainly valid but, hey, it’s my blog.) From there, it was just math.
I’ll discuss the criteria and add some commentary below, but here’s the raw results in one table. Click on the table to display a larger version; hit the back button to return here.
The following are the ten questions I posed for each of the ten criteria, each in my weighted order of importance. My methodology for determining each grade is also noted.
- Could the person function effectively as President?
- This criteria is obviously the most important. Biden will be 78 when he’s sworn into office. ‘Nuff said.
- These grades are assigned based on the person’s resume. I personally don’t think any of the field gets an A here and I decided against grading on a curve.
- B: Governors and Senators
- C: Representatives and Influencers
- D: State Representatives
- Could the person help win the 2020 Electoral College?
- This criteria is also of utmost importance. A Biden/Anybody ticket needs to win and, in fact, the criteria list could easily just stop here. I’ll note once again that I’m not at all interested in someone who can rack up additional votes in the liberal states that Biden will win anyway. I’m likewise not at all interested in someone that can narrow Biden’s margin of defeat in a Republican state. It’s all about winning the Electoral votes in the swing states. The VP selection must increase Biden’s chances of winning one or more of the six toss-up states and also help guarantee that the ticket doesn’t lose the seven states that only lean Democratic.
- These grades are my judgement calls as to how much the person could help the ticket win one or more swing states.
- Does this person have the media savvy, the verbal prowess, and the debate skills to function as the campaign’s barker?
- Biden is not exactly a master in front of a camera or microphone. He might be best positioned as a CEO with his VP choice as his front-and-center COO. With the right choice, Biden could take a policy-centric high road and leave the political mud wrestling to his VP.
- These grades are my judgement calls based on how the person has handled themselves in speeches, interviews, debates, hearings, etc.
- Would the person’s winning as VP have no impact on the number of Democrats in the Senate?
- If a sitting Senator is selected, that seat needs to safely remain Democratic. While winning the Presidency is the primary goal, winning the Senate – or at least not losing seats – is very important as well.
- A: Non-Senators
- B: Senators in seats that are likely to remain Democratic both via a temporary appointment by a Democratic Governor and in a special election
- C: Senators in seats that are at risk in either
- D: Senators in seats that are at-risk in both
- If a sitting Senator is selected, that seat needs to safely remain Democratic. While winning the Presidency is the primary goal, winning the Senate – or at least not losing seats – is very important as well.
- Would the person “balance” the ticket?
- In addition to selecting a woman, Biden should also try to select someone from a younger generation since all three of the other ticket toppers are older than dirt.
- The other possible balance criteria are race and politics – neither of which I find remotely interesting as independent criteria. If a black, Latina, or progressive woman can help win the Electoral College, dandy. Otherwise, there’s no reason whatsoever to just check a box. (The fact that three of my top five candidates are black is not due to any consideration of their race.)
- Grades are assigned by age at time of inauguration:
- A: <=55
- B: 56-60
- C: 61-65
- D: 66-70
- F: >=71
- Would the person’s winning as VP have no impact on their state’s response to the pandemic?
- If a sitting politician is selected, there needs to be a very solid answer to any questions of abandonment of their current office in a time of crisis. I also wouldn’t put it past Trump to make any sitting Governor’s job handling the pandemic harder than it already is. It’s also more than possible that he’d tweak the federal response levers just to make a sitting Senator look bad. He could and he would.
- D: Governors
- C: Senators
- B: Representatives
- A: Others
- If a sitting politician is selected, there needs to be a very solid answer to any questions of abandonment of their current office in a time of crisis. I also wouldn’t put it past Trump to make any sitting Governor’s job handling the pandemic harder than it already is. It’s also more than possible that he’d tweak the federal response levers just to make a sitting Senator look bad. He could and he would.
- Does this person have a proven ability to fundraise at a national level?
- Money does matter.
- A: Influencers
- B: Those that ran in the Democratic primary
- C: Other Senators and Governors
- D: Representatives
- Money does matter.
- Has this person been recently and sufficiently vetted by the national press?
- In politics, surprises are seldom good things. Furthermore, it’d be best to select someone that already has national name recognition. Given the current travel restrictions, an introductory tour of the country isn’t a likely option.
- A: Those that ran in the Democratic primary
- A/B/C/D: Judgement calls on all others
- In politics, surprises are seldom good things. Furthermore, it’d be best to select someone that already has national name recognition. Given the current travel restrictions, an introductory tour of the country isn’t a likely option.
- Could the person lead the party post-Biden and possibly win in 2024 should Biden choose to not seek a second term?
- Biden would start a second term at the age of 82. Just sayin’. It pays to think ahead.
- These grades are my judgment calls.
- Biden would start a second term at the age of 82. Just sayin’. It pays to think ahead.
- Does the person have a military background?
- Military service should always be a plus in elected office. I also give credit in this category to anyone that has been a first responder.
- A: Military service
- B: First responder
- F: Others
- Military service should always be a plus in elected office. I also give credit in this category to anyone that has been a first responder.
A bit of candidate-specific commentary:
- The highest grade on my list is a B-. There is no perfect choice.
- While Michelle Obama would be the best choice according to this analysis, she’s made it perfectly clear that she’s not at all interested. She means it. Moving on.
- The next two choices were at the top of my VP list over a year ago. In that post, I suggested that a Biden/Harris ticket was the Democratic party’s best shot at a win. I also noted that a Biden/Klobuchar ticket was my close second choice. The prior post was a more organic analysis and I stand by those opinions. I’m quite happy that this more formal analysis independently produced a similar result a year later.
- While Whitmer would be a good choice as well, it’d be very tough for a sitting Governor to campaign for another office during a pandemic.
- Oprah’s simply not interested. It’d be an attention-grabbing choice, but it’s not going to happen.
- In case anyone cares, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) isn’t on the list because she doesn’t yet meet the Constitutional age requirement for VP. If she did, she’d be at the bottom of the list.
- Stacey Abrams has been getting a whole lot of press with respect to a potential VP nod – mostly because she’s actively campaigning for the job. However, despite a national profile, she’s near the bottom of my list. Abrams served as a Georgia State Representative for 10 years, running unopposed in her last three elections. She ran for Governor of Georgia in 2018 and lost. While she came closer than expected, she still lost. Thus, Abrams has not won any contested election in over a decade – and when she did it was in a GA state district with less than 30K voters. The step up to VPOTUS is whole staircase. She wouldn’t even carry her home state on a national ticket.
I think Harris, Klobuchar, and Whitmer will be the final three contenders for the VP spot and, personally, I’d be happy with any of them. However, if I was placing a bet, it’d still be:
Biden / Harris 2020