It’s been just shy of a year since I last wrote about the 2020 Senate races. While many things (including some of the candidates) are still in flux, an updated look seems appropriate. While Republicans are still favored to retain control of the Senate, the chances of a Democratic takeover have improved enough to warrant serious attention.
Democrats will need a net gain of 3 Senate seats if Biden wins the Presidency or a net gain of 4 seats if Trump wins.
As before, I’m ignoring the Senate races that will safely remain in either Democratic or Republican hands, leaving 16 races worth following. They are presented here by goal categories in order of where Democratic focus (i.e. money) can best be applied. Within each goal category, the races are ordered by the probability of a Democratic win based on current polling data (albeit scarce), the relative strengths/weaknesses of the known candidates, recent state voting trends, and a few other factors.
Here’s a bit more detail by goal category:
- Defend: Current Democratic seats that Lean D
- These two races are defensive – and Democrats absolutely need to hold these seats. Michigan and New Mexico are both Electoral College swing states in 2020, impacting the dynamics of the down-ticket Senate races. While the retirement of Democrat Tom Udall in New Mexico made that race more competitive than it needed to be, Democrats are still slightly favored to hold the seat. Democrats are also favored to keep the Michigan seat but can’t take it for granted.
- Win: Current Republican seats that are Toss Ups
- These five races are the best chances for Democratic flips – and Democrats need a clean sweep of all five. That’s not probable, but it is possible. The late entries of John Hickenlooper and Steve Bullock helped a lot; Mark Kelly is proving to be a strong candidate; Republican incumbents Susan Collins and Thom Tillis both have serious popularity issues.
- Stretch: Current Republican seats that Lean R
- These two races are stretch goals – but each deserves Democratic attention as a buffer for a possible loss above. The Kentucky race deserves special attention due to the strength of Amy McGrath and the depravity of Mitch McConnell. Joni Ernst isn’t quite as polarizing but is still a valid long-shot target.
- Hold: Current Democratic seats that are Likely D
- These two races are defensive – and, while Democrats should easily hold them, they aren’t guaranteed. If there’s money left over after focusing on the races above, it should go here.
- Accept: Current Democratic seats that are Likely R
- This race probably isn’t winnable – and Democrats shouldn’t waste a ton of money trying to keep the seat. Doug Jones just barely won last time against a child molester and Alabama Republicans aren’t making that mistake again.
- Hope: Current Republican seats that are Likely R
- These four races are extreme long shots – and Democrats would need a massive amount of money and luck to win any of them. The best they can do is hope. While I’ll personally contribute to MJ Hegar’s campaign in my home state, the unfortunate fact is that John Cornyn will most likely win re-election.
Based on my current analysis, Democrats can indeed reclaim the Senate in 2020. They’ll just need to run the table to do it.