While everyone’s attention is elsewhere at the moment, the 2020 elections are just seven months away. Some things have changed; some things haven’t.
Since my last post on the Presidential contest, Sanders dropped out of the Democratic race and endorsed Biden, making the latter the presumptive nominee. On the Republican side, Trump is still a narcissistic jackass.
Meanwhile, Biden himself has been pretty much invisible – which is not necessarily a bad thing for now. If Biden was a great orator, a calm voice of reason might help to fill our current national leadership vacuum. Unfortunately, Biden isn’t an Obama… or a Reagan…or a (Bill) Clinton. I do believe that Biden means well and has a good heart. He’d be a very capable President who would surround himself with the best talent available – taking full advantage of their skills while functioning more as a Chairman of the Board.
Biden’s mouth does often get ahead of his brain, though, and in a normal election, that would be a fatal flaw. However, since Biden’s opponent is the undisputed champion of verbal diarrhea, Biden’s gaffes shouldn’t be a huge disadvantage. That said, it’s still probably best if Biden just lays low for a while, limits his exposure, and lets Trump implode all on his own.
The simple fact is that the 2020 Presidential election will be entirely a referendum on Trump and, in particular, his handling of the pandemic.
If we somehow find ourselves in November with a strong economy, with the pandemic under control, and with blame for all of the death and damage shifted elsewhere, chances are that Trump will win a second term.
If the economy is still struggling, if the pandemic is still impacting American life, and importantly, if Democrats can successfully (and rightfully) saddle Trump with full responsibility for our non-existent national strategy in the early days of the pandemic, Biden can win by simply providing a reasonable alternative.
As an early indicator, note that Trump’s approval rating is currently underwater at 44.2% with a stunning 51.3% disapproval rating. That’s quite an amazing feat given our country’s solid history of rallying behind their President in a time of crisis, regardless of party.
One thing remains completely unchanged. Despite COVID-19, our Presidential elections still aren’t popularity (or unpopularity) contests. It’s still all about the Electoral College. While COVID-19 has scrambled some of the 2020 political calculus, the basic Electoral Landscape has not seen significant change. The states that were Safe or Likely states for both Democrats and Republican remain as they were. However, while the swing states all remain swing states, they may be leaning just a bit more toward Democrats at the moment – or rather, just a bit more away from Trump.
Democratic Governors in the swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania have seen double-digit improvements from their pre-crisis approval ratings. Trump isn’t winning fans in those states by attacking their Governors and claiming “absolute” power to override their decisions. Conversely, the Republican Governors of the swing states of Florida, Arizona, and Iowa have seen their approval ratings drop. Trump’s embrace of these Governors isn’t doing him any favors, either.
Turns out that swing voters don’t particularly like a President who plays politics with their lives. Imagine that.