In this election, we have to stay focused on the dark clouds behind any silver linings. That’s why I’m here!
Joe Biden staged an impressive Super Tuesday comeback, Bernie Sanders managed to hold on, and the race for the Democratic nomination is now a two-person contest. Biden’s surge seems to imply that a majority of Democrats are now concluding that electability against Trump is of paramount importance. That’s the silver lining.
The dark clouds? Let’s not forget that this year’s Democratic nominating process remains idiotic. We still don’t know the preferred nominee of Democrats in any of the four states that will matter the most in November. Those four primaries won’t complete for another eight weeks – ’cause, you know, why would we give a damn what Democrats in the states that will decide the general election think about their nominee? While the preference of given state’s Democrats doesn’t equate to a general election win in that state, it does hint at the Democratic enthusiasm that can be expected there. In a close election, enthusiasm could be a deciding factor. For reference, here are the relevant states and dates: Michigan (3/10), Arizona (3/17), Wisconsin (4/7), and Pennsylvania (4/28).
FYI, Democrats in most of the seven states that lean Democratic – but aren’t guaranteed – have now weighed in. The results are a wash. Sanders won New Hampshire, Nevada, and Colorado; Biden won Virginia, Minnesota, and Maine. New Mexico doesn’t hold its primary until 6/2.
The greatest concern from my perspective is the fact that a two-person contest could further entrench Democratic voters into their perceived lanes – with young progressives on one side and older centrists on the other. A contested Democratic convention is a possibility and, while that would be absolutely fascinating to watch, it likely wouldn’t be helpful to party unity.
In 2016, after Sanders lost the Democratic nomination to Hillary Clinton, a large number of Sanders’ supporters essentially took their marbles and went home in a huff. Since these folks couldn’t vote for their preferred candidate in November, they either stayed home, voted for Trump, or voted for a third-party candidate in protest. Gary Johnson (Libertarian Party) and Jill Stein (Green Party) never came close to winning in any state but the votes that were cast for them still mattered. Had Clinton won a decent chunk of the 2016 third-party votes in several close states (including Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida), she would have easily beaten Trump. Thus, the Sanders Sore Losers bear some significant responsibility for Trump’s four years in office.
Sadly, I see no signs that the 2020 Sanders camp would be any more gracious in defeat. While it’s not yet clear if any third-party candidates will gain traction this year, any significant number of Sanders supporters that refuse to vote for any other Democrat could easily throw the election to Trump once again. Biden supporters wouldn’t be at all thrilled with a Sanders nomination but most wouldn’t even consider the scorched Earth approach of the Sanders supporters.
Personally, I stand by my prior post with respect to a Sanders candidacy. If Sanders wins the Democratic nomination, I would fully expect him to lose the general election while being a major drain on all of the down-ballot races. That said, he would still have my unqualified support. While I disagree with many of his policies, the simple fact is that Bernie Sanders is an infinitely better human being than Donald Trump. I would definitely vote for Sanders and I’d even throw some money at his general election campaign. I would, however, likely focus my own efforts on a Democratic retention of the U.S. House. That would be the only check on what would undoubtedly be a completely unhinged Trump Administration, Part II.
As a political junkie, I think the incoming thunderstorm is going to provide a great show. As an American, I find myself more than a little worried about the roof leaking.