I was almost finished with yet another post about impeachment. Upon review (and despite it being extremely well-written), I deleted it. Nothing substantial has changed since my last post on the topic: Trump deserves to be impeached and removed from office; Trump was impeached by the House; Trump will not be removed from office by the Senate; a clusterf*ck is inevitable in every corner of government; the 2020 political fall-out is TBD. I needed a break. I looked through my rather large collection of partially completed essays and decided to focus some renewed attention on Texas…
Politics begins at home. Or so they tell me. We’re still in primary season so it’s way too early to call any 2020 race. However, since I have a vested interest in Texas politics, I thought I’d share my broad-stroke analyses based on current data. As things progress, I’ll try to weigh in as to where campaign contributions can best be directed.
It’s been 16 months since my last dive into Texas politics. In that post, I opined that Texas is intrinsically purple – despite the fact that Republicans currently enjoy complete control of my state. I further suggested that it was only a matter of time before that non-balance-of-power would change. While I still consider that to be an accurate assessment, Democrats aren’t yet positioned to take over in Texas. Progress, however, has been made and Texas Democrats do have a chance to make some additional gains in 2020. The following is my macro-look at the various races.
(In the past, I made a point of showing some of my analytics work. Sadly, everyone was incredibly bored. While I’m a geek and I’d love to discuss methodologies, I’ll just report high-level results for now unless someone makes the mistake of asking me for details.)
Presidential Race
Yes, Texas is still technically a swing state in this race. However, the sad fact is that Texas will vote for Trump in 2020. My state could have been in-play with the right ticket, but none of the possible Democratic nominees can win Texas. While some could make the race closer than others, the candidate in second place is still a loser regardless of the margin. All 38 of Texas’ Electoral votes will go to Trump. Nothing to see here, folks. Move on.
U.S. Senate Race
I like MJ Hegar. She’s a graduate of the University of Texas – my alma mater – and she’s a decorated Air Force vet. In 2018, she ran to be my U.S. Representative. I contributed to her campaign and I certainly voted for her. She ran a good race but lost to the Republican incumbent. In 2020, she’s running to be my U.S. Senator. I contributed to her campaign and I’ll certainly vote for her. She’s going to run a good race and lose to the Republican incumbent. Reality sucks.
U.S. House Races
Texas has a total of 36 seats in the U.S. House. As of 2018, 23 seats are held by Republicans and 13 are held by Democrats. Democrats saw a net gain of 2 Texas seats in 2018 and they have a good chance to increase their numbers again in 2020. However, it’s unlikely they’ll pass the Republican count.
My current analysis ignores “Safe R’ and “Safe D” seats. I see 2020 Democrats defending 1 “Likely D” seat and 1 “Toss-Up” seat in Texas. Republicans, on the other hand, are defending 7 “Likely R” seats and another 5 “Toss-Up” seats. To win a majority of the Texas delegation, Democrats would need to keep all their current seats, sweep the “Toss-Up” seats held by Republicans, and win two of the “Likely R” races. At this point, that seems unlikely at best. However, every additional Texas Democrat in the U.S. House helps maintain an overall Democratic majority – just in case (God forbid…) Trump wins another term.
Texas State Senate Races
The Texas Senate has a total of 31 seats. As of 2018, 19 seats are held by Republicans and 12 are held by Democrats. Democrats saw a net gain of 2 seats in 2018 – eliminating a Republican super-majority in the chamber. In 2020, 16 Texas Senate seats will be on the ballot. There is zero chance that Democrats will gain control of the Texas Senate in 2020. At best, Democrats could possibly gain one Texas Senate seat.
Texas State House Races
The Texas House of Representatives has a total of 150 seats. As of 2018, 83 seats are held by Republicans and 67 are held by Democrats. Democrats saw a net gain of 12 seats in 2018 and they have a decent chance to increase their numbers again in 2020. However, it will be tough for Democrats to gain control of the chamber.
My current analysis ignores “Safe R’ and “Safe D” seats. I see Democrats defending 10 “Likely D” seats and 2 “Toss-Up” seats. Republicans, on the other hand, are defending 13 “Likely R” seats and 9 “Toss-Up” seats. To win control of the Texas House, Democrats would need to keep all their current seats and sweep the “Toss-Up” seats held by Republicans. That’s a tough goal… but it’s not impossible. Indeed, the Texas House is where Democrats should drop every dime they can find. If Democrats can gain a voice in Texas redistricting after the 2020 census, our whole world changes.
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In summary, Texas Democrats would be wise to focus on races in the Texas House while also doing their best to pad their numbers in the U.S. House. Those arenas are where I’ll try to focus my analytics efforts after the primaries. Stay tuned!