One of the 2020 metrics I’m tracking is candidate endorsements. Here’s my take on which endorsements matter:
- I’m only considering endorsements made in the Democratic primary as there won’t be ton of surprises in the general election. Most Democrats and Republicans will endorse their respective candidates with varying degrees of enthusiasm; most celebrities will endorse the Democratic candidate; Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un will endorse Trump.
- I’m ignoring all celebrity endorsements. While they may help generate press and cash, they don’t generate votes. In 2016, Hillary Clinton had endorsements from Orpah, Beyoncé, and LeBron James; Trump featured endorsements from Scott Baio, Ted Nugent, and Dennis Rodman. And yet, we know how that turned out.
- I’m only considering endorsements from current Democratic officeholders. They have an existing political base that put them in office and they have a means to reach those voters.
- I’m only considering political endorsements from the Lean D and Toss-Up swing states that Democrats need to win in the general election. Early primary support by successful local politicians should be a decent indicator of how well the candidate will be received in the swing states. While the Lean R states could also be interesting, a candidate needs to first win the Lean D and Toss-Up states. Indeed, a Democrat can win the general election without winning any Lean R states.
- I’m ignoring all endorsements from Florida. While it’s technically a Toss-Up state, it’s a very expensive state in which to campaign. Since I see no Democratic candidate with an inside track in Florida, I think resources can best be spent elsewhere.
There are numerous publications that have staffs tracking the various endorsements. A few of the better sources I found include FiveThirtyEight, Politico, and Ballotopedia. For my current purposes, I started with FiveThirtyEight’s list of 544 politicians.
Applying my filters, I was left with 147 potential endorsements. Of course, all endorsements are not created equal. FiveThirtyEight’s office weight factor seems to be a reasonable start, but I added consideration for the importance of the endorser’s swing state (in terms of number of Electors).
Since only 17% of these endorsements have been made thus far, I’ll need to wait a bit to take a deeper dive. For the moment, however, here’s the big picture:
- Warren has endorsements in four swing states; Biden has endorsement in three swing states. Biden, however, has a stronger endorsement weighting that Warren, mostly due to endorsements in Pennsylvania with its 20 Electors.
- Amy Klobuchar has an expectedly strong weighting in her home swing state of Minnesota, but isn’t a factor elsewhere.
- Five other candidates have weak endorsement weightings in one swing state each. While Kamala Harris and Cory Booker each have a ton of endorsements and are near the top of some of the published lists, the majority of their endorsements come from their respective home states of California and New Jersey – neither of which is a swing state.
By my current Swing Endorsements metric, Biden and Warren appear to be the best candidates to win in 2020. While Biden is an expected leader, Warren surprised me – likely due to the fact that she’s running one of the best organized campaigns. While it’s early and everything can change, other candidates are going to need to make a move soon to earn more endorsements in the states that matter.