While I’m not often one to shoot from the hip, I’m going to make a way-too-early pick for a 2020 Democratic Presidential ticket.
I absolutely reserve the right to change my mind once we have better data. And, of course, things will progress and they’ll progress in unforeseen directions. There are already as many Democrats running for President in 2020 as in the prior eight presidential election seasons combined. The debates will matter and it’s guaranteed that some major revelations and/or events will change the landscape multiple times before the Democratic National Convention in July of 2020.
As I’ve stated before, I’m solely interested in beating Trump/Pence. Particularly given the bleak 2020 Senate picture, Democrats need to be laser-focused on evicting the current occupant of the White House. While Democrats can and should have policy discussions, losers don’t get to set policies. Thus, picking the 2020 Democratic ticket based on policy positions is just political masturbation. It may feel great in the moment, but it’s not particularly useful and it can leave a huge mess.
That said, at the moment, here’s my ticket choice. [ Drum roll, please… ]
Biden / Harris 2020
I previously discussed possible Democratic 2020 Electoral Strategies and I’m standing by that analysis. Given those thoughts, the following is the rationale behind my ticket choices.
Joe Biden
Joe Biden seems a pretty obvious choice to lead the ticket to a win. Biden can execute either the Middle America Strategy or The Old White Establishment Male Strategy or some combination thereof. There is no other candidate that has such an obvious Electoral path to victory.
Biden is certainly qualified for the office. During his quarter century in the Senate, he chaired both the Foreign Relations Committee and the Judiciary Committee. During his eight years as Vice President, he largely functioned as a partner for President Obama.
Of course, Biden does have a few negatives – and feel free to read the word “negatives” with a serious eye roll.
Biden is not exactly a poster child for new leadership. However, while his age, race, and gender will be an issue in the primary, it’s a wash in the general election. Fence-sitters will hopefully prefer an old white male statesman over an old white male asshole, but the fact remains that both Biden and Trump are old white men.
Biden also isn’t a “progressive” in the 2020 sense of the word. He’s a centrist. While that word is anathema to a portion of the Democratic party, it would most definitely be a positive in the general election.
By far, though, Biden’s biggest negative is that Joe is Joe.
While very few people would think that Biden’s heart isn’t in the right place, his hands have been another matter.
Can Biden be creepy? Sure. But does anyone not have a friend or relative who is WAY too touchy-feely? A line can most definitely be crossed where physical contact becomes assault or when a power relationship is in-play. Short of that, though, there really is a difference. While an unwanted invasion of one’s personal space can be extremely uncomfortable, such an act is neither criminal nor disqualifying.
[ As a brief aside, let me attempt to be clear before anyone hits “Send” on the email telling me that I’m a sexist idiot who just doesn’t get it. Perhaps you’re right. I can’t argue that I fully understand a woman’s perspective. However, while I believe that the #MeToo movement has been a long-overdue force for good that illuminated the despicable actions of the likes of Harvey Weinstein and Louis C.K., the hashtag does not convey magical powers. If #MeToo devolves to give anyone carte blanche to unilaterally destroy someone’s reputation for any perceived slight or annoyance or social error, then count me out. The voices of those dealing with true sexual predators are diminished by such misuse. Okay. If you are still so inclined, flame away. ]
In any case, while CreepGate will undoubtedly play a role in the Democratic primary, it’s hard to imagine the GOP making this a successful general election issue. Compared to Trump, Biden is Mother Teresa.
Could others fill Biden’s role on the ticket? That’s doubtful at best. Steve Bullock and John Hickenlooper could technically attempt the same strategies, but neither has national name recognition nor experience. Both would have been much better Senate candidates and their personal ambitions helped put the Senate out of Democratic reach in 2020. Thanks, guys. No, at this juncture, the best hope for Democrats in 2020 is Joe Biden.
Kamala Harris
Picking the VP was a more interesting exercise.
To make this pick, I assumed that Biden is at the top of ticket and I hope that he waits until he has the nomination in hand before making a VP selection. Things change. While it’s certainly possible that someone who is not a current Presidential contender gets the VP nod, that seems rather unlikely given the large field. (Of course, if Michelle Obama or the right retired military flag officer expresses any interest, I’ll rewrite this post.)
Thus, given what we now know, my initial pick is largely a matter of elimination:
- I first scratched all of the other old white men. Some diversity is required against Trump/Pence and the field is strong enough to make the ticket more representative of the voting population along at least one axis. I used Pence as the “old man” cutoff and he’s 59.
- I next scratched a ton of candidates that don’t yet have sufficient experience, leaving only people that have served as Senators or Governors.
- I then scratched all older women, using the same cutoff age I used for the men. With the 76-year-old Biden at the top of a ticket, some younger blood would produce a healthier ticket. This criteria eliminated only Elizabeth Warren. It wasn’t personal.
- I next scratched all of the other East Coast candidates to provide some geographical balance to a ticket led by Biden. This eliminated Cory Booker and Kirsten Gillibrand.
- For the final scratch criteria, I simply decided to eliminate all of the remaining men. Giving Biden a female running mate seemed more than appropriate. This eliminated Steve Bullock and Michael Bennet.
The above bloodbath left only Amy Klobuchar and Kamala Harris. Neither are bad choices, each is qualified, and each has their own pluses and minuses.
Of the two, Klobuchar is the only one who could possibly execute a winning strategy on her own. She’s won statewide multiple times in a Middle America swing state. She remains a strong second choice in my book and, if she exceeds expectations in the primary season, I’ll reconsider my selection. Klobuchar is, unfortunately, a bit too much like Biden. They appeal to the same base and Klobuchar thus wouldn’t provide much balance to the ticket. Furthermore, since her Senate seat would not be a Safe D seat in a special election, it might be best for her to stay put.
Cutting Klobuchar made Harris the last candidate standing. And Harris does check several political boxes:
- In addition to being a woman, Harris has a mixed-race heritage (Jamaican & Indian) and, at 54, can reasonably claim to be Gen X. (And, yes, I realize that sentence is infuriatingly sexist, racist, and ageist. Unfortunately, we live in a world where a resume isn’t the only thing that matters.) Harris might energize some Obama voters who sat out 2016.
- While Harris is a progressive, she’s both too progressive for the general electorate and not progressive enough for the far left. That’s a good thing. She might be able to balance Biden’s centrist approach just enough to placate the left without worrying independents too much.
- Harris has only served as a Senator since 2016, which might let her claim both experience and DC outsider status.
- The prosecutorial skills Harris honed in previous jobs should come in quite handy during debates. A Harris/Pence VP debate would make for great TV.
- Harris could provide an aggressive counterpoint to the ticket. Biden could present himself as a sane, experienced centrist who knows what he’s doing while letting Harris function as the disruptor that shakes things up.
The Electoral Math
Referencing my take on the 2020 Electoral Landscape, Biden/Harris should be able to add all of the “Likely D” states to the “Safe D” states for a total of 233 Electoral votes. The ticket should also be able to pull off wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin to bring the Electoral total to 279 – enough for the win. To pad that a bit – and to make Trump/Pence play some defense – Biden/Harris could reasonably target Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina as well. That’s a grand total of 345 Electoral votes that the ticket would have a decent chance of winning.
So. Biden/Harris 2020? At least for now.