Beto O’Rourke announced today that he’s running for President.
Look. I live in Texas. I like the guy. I contributed multiple times to his Senate campaign against Ted Cruz. I certainly voted for him. He came closer to winning than anyone initially expected. He generated a ton of excitement in Texas and nationally. He functioned as the de-facto top of the ticket in Texas helping to drive some minimal Democratic gains in a very red state. He’s young, energetic, charismatic, a phenomenal fundraiser, and a natural politician.
But he lost. He lost against one of the few politicians in the country that just might be even more unpopular than Donald Trump. Yes, this is Texas and the fact that he ran a close race here against an incumbent Republican Senator is very impressive. He came closer to winning than any Texas Democrat in the last 40 years. But he lost. To Ted Cruz.
If he couldn’t win against Cruz in Texas, his chances of winning nationally against Trump just aren’t good. He served three terms as the congressman from a reliably Democratic district with a population of about 750,000. Before that, the full extent of his political experience was serving six years on the El Paso City Council. He’s just not ready for a national campaign. Sure, the media loves him now. Let’s see how long that lasts.
If O’Rourke had decided to run in 2020 against John Cornyn for the other Senate seat in Texas, he’d have had my enthusiastic support.
But as the Democratic nominee for President? Not yet. Not this cycle.
While he does have a long shot at winning the nomination given his popularity, I see no path to victory in the Electoral College. He can’t reasonably execute any sane 2020 Electoral Strategy to get 270 votes. While he could possibly define his own set of target states, it’d be tough to imagine a custom strategy that didn’t include his home state of Texas. And he lost in Texas just last year. To Ted Cruz.
If O’Rourke does somehow win the Democratic nomination, I’d definitely contribute to his general election campaign. I’d most certainly vote for him over Trump. If we want to win the Presidency, however, this likely isn’t our guy. Could he come close? Maybe. But just like in the Texas Senate race, close doesn’t count.