So here I was, in the midst of composing multiple blog entries that weighed in on possible Democrat strategies and candidates to win the Presidency in 2020. Mostly, I was trying to organize a surfeit of suppositions into coherent postings of humane length. I had almost managed to compartmentalize the daily onslaught of insanity from TrumpLand to focus on the future.
And then there was Howard Schultz.
If this egomaniac runs as an independent in 2020, I’m looking at a passel of pointless text.
After my previous post expressing dismay over Schultz’s possible candidacy, I received considerable pushback questioning the certainty of my conclusions. Let me be clear. There is no reasonable scenario where Schultz runs as an independent and Trump does not win re-election. Anyone who believes otherwise simply doesn’t understand Electoral College math nor the rules of the game. This isn’t a popularity contest. It’s just barely an election.
So, okay. Let’s look into this.
First, though, let me address my rationale to abandon Starbucks. It was frankly a throw-away thought in my prior post. Schultz is no longer a Starbucks employee and the company did issue a statement of neutrality regarding 2020. However, that does not change the fact that Schultz owns about $2.4B worth of Starbucks stock. If the stock price drops just $1, Schultz’ net worth drops about $68M. Even a multi-billionaire might notice that. I realized that skipping my latte wouldn’t have a huge impact here. It just made me feel slightly better. And then today, Schultz went on Fox News to tell those of us who dared question him that we “need a little bit less caffeine.” Well. Wish granted, jackass.
With that out of the way, let’s move to three basic truths:
- Schultz is a Democrat. Sure, he’s a fiscal conservative and sits to the right of likely Democratic candidates on health care, but he’s still very much a Democrat. Despite his current protestations, this isn’t open for debate; he himself has said he was a Democrat. Few Republicans are going to buy what he’s selling. Republican money will flood to Schultz – but only to split the Democratic vote. There are no more than a handful of Trump voters that would switch to Schultz and certainly not enough voters to swing any red state’s Electoral votes.
- Schultz & Company claim that over 40% of voters are independent and that those are their principal targets. That position is both misleading and unrealistic. Most independents (including myself) self-identify as independent but politically lean toward one of the major parties at the moment. Gallop estimates that only 11% of voters are truly independent and, in that diverse group, it’s rather doubtful that Schultz would be a unifying factor. In any case, independents don’t win elections; independents swing elections.
- My prior analysis of the 2020 Electoral Landscape is still valid. As noted above, all solid Republican states will remain solid Republican. It is possible, however, that Schultz could move the needle on a couple of solid Democratic states. It’s more probable that his greatest impact would be in the swing states.
I thus see five possible outcomes, presented here in the order of probability:
- Schultz wins no Electoral votes, but screws the Democratic candidate. Trump is re-elected President.
- This is by far the most likely scenario. The Democratic candidate will be forced to run a campaign that deals with Schultz; Trump will be able to run exactly the same campaign he’d run without Schultz in the picture. Schultz and the Democratic candidate will split a majority of votes in several swing states. Trump will win only a plurality of votes in those states but will still be awarded all of those states’ Electoral votes. It doesn’t matter if that’s fair or not. That’s the way it is.
- Schultz wins some Electoral votes, but no candidate gets a majority. Trump is re-elected President.
- This could easily happen. If no candidate receives 270 Electoral votes, the Constitution dictates that the U.S. House then decides the winner, with each state getting exactly one vote. While Democrats control the House, Republicans control 26 states in the House. Game over.
- Schultz wins few (if any) Electoral votes, but is a non-issue.
- This only happens if Schultz completely implodes and gets very few popular votes anywhere. However, since Schultz has a boatload of money to self-fund a serious campaign, this isn’t a likely outcome. If he runs, he can buy impact. If the Democrat manages to win in this case, it’ll be after a much tougher battle than necessary.
- Schultz wins no Electoral votes, but screws Trump. The Democratic candidate is elected President.
- I’ll include this possibility for completeness only. However, as previously noted, Schultz will only take votes away from the Democrat. If someone wants to propose any solid Republican state that might vote for Schultz, please chime in. (Hint: Don’t bother.)
- Schultz wins a majority of the Electoral votes. Schultz is elected President.
- This just ain’t gonna happen. Schultz and his paid consultants are delusional if they believe otherwise. Do the math. For the sake of argument, let’s assume an alternate universe where Schultz can somehow win every toss up state plus every state that leans Democratic plus every state that leans Republican. I’ll even throw in his home state of Washington and nearby Oregon just for grins — although they are both safely Democratic at the moment. In this scenario, Schultz somehow wins in states as diverse as Texas, Florida, Virginia, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota, and Washington. And yet, even with ALL of these 20 states in his column, Schultz would STILL be well short of an Electoral victory. See Outcome #2. There is no plausible reality in which Schultz wins. Period. In the current political environment, no third-party candidate could.
So. Is there a chance the Democrats could still win if Schultz runs as an independent? Sure. There’s a chance that we get the third outcome above. There’s also a chance that we get hit by a giant asteroid.
If the alternative is another four years of Trump, I’ll take the asteroid.