Well. That was interesting. I considered making a drinking game out of election night. You know, like taking a shot whenever a seat flipped from (R) to (D). Or pouring a drink whenever Wolf Blitzer reported a race’s results, with less than 5% reporting, as being a bellwether for the whole country. Or whenever polling data was massively wrong. Then I decided I’d just drink. Good call.
Things aren’t over yet, but I thought I’d post a few raw impressions before I turn off the TV, close the laptop, recharge the iPad, and put away the Scotch:
- There were, of course, numerous surprises in individual races. At a macro level, however, things went pretty much as expected.
- The great news is that Democrats will have a significant majority in the House. There will now be at least some check on the Trump administration and an end to complete Republican control of the government. I do see a Constitutional crisis in our future as subpoenas get issued by House committees and then get ignored by the White House.
- The bad news is that Republicans will significantly increase their majority in the Senate. Democrats were never going to win the Senate, but there’s no way to spin the lost seats as anything other than defeat. Republicans will spend the next two years stacking the courts. Pray for Ruth Bader Ginsburg. From a legislative perspective, however, there’s just not much the Senate can do without negotiating with the House. Thus, another Constitutional crisis will likely be triggered as Trump attempts to govern solely by Executive order.
- Democrats picked up a few Governors’ offices, but not two important ones that were on the table: Florida and Ohio. Their importance will be evident in 2020.
- Incumbent moderates in both parties got creamed. That is not a good thing.
- A lot of women candidates won. That is a good thing.
- At the individual race level, I’m personally disappointed that some Democratic candidates didn’t win (Beto O’Rourke, Andrew Gillum, Richard Cordray, Amy McGrath, MJ Hegar, etc.), but I’m not particularly surprised about the results. Pollsters, however, will be trying to figure out how to modify their methodologies since some of their predictions in these races were way off base.
- Both Democrats and Republicans will claim victory. Both have a point.
- My bottom line is that I’m not throwing a party, but I’ll sleep just fine tonight.
- Cue the prognostications about 2020.